The Premier League weekend continues at Craven Cottage on Saturday as Fulham host Arsenal in a London derby that has traditionally favoured the visitors.
Fulham arrive stretched by injuries and struggling for form. Marco Silva’s side have lost three of their last four and sit in the bottom third for expected goals and big chances created.
Their attacking options have been hit hard with Sasa Lukic is out for at least a month with an adductor injury, Rodrigo Muniz remains side-lined with a hamstring problem, and Kenny Tete is unlikely to be fully fit. Raul Jimenez is also a doubt after a hip issue. Without a natural striker, Fulham’s attack has looked blunt, averaging just 0.94 xG per game.
Arsenal, meanwhile, remain one of the most consistent sides in the division. The Gunners have taken five wins from seven and rank second in the league for xG ratio and expected points. Defensively they have been excellent, conceding only three goals in that run and keeping two clean sheets away from home.
Mikel Arteta will be without captain Martin Odegaard due to a knee injury, but Arsenal’s structure and control have remained intact.
History points strongly towards another Arsenal win. They’ve beaten Fulham in 12 of the last 18 meetings, often finding a way through regardless of form. Six of the last seven encounters have seen both teams score, and Fulham have at least shown enough at home to suggest they can compete.
With Arsenal’s discipline, Fulham’s absences, and the compact nature of these London derbies, this could be another tight contest that leans towards the visitors’ greater quality.
How the bookies view it: Visitors heavy favourites
Arsenal are strong favourites at 4/7, which gives them around a 64% chance of winning at Craven Cottage. The draw at 10/3 implies a 23% probability, while Fulham at 5/1 are rated at just 17% to take the points. Those odds reflect both current form and the history of this fixture, with Arsenal winning 12 of the last 18 meetings.
The goal markets are finely balanced. Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 suggests a 52% likelihood, while both teams to score at 1/1 is an even 50-50 call.
Fulham have scored in two of three home games this season, but injuries to Rodrigo Muniz and Raul Jimenez weaken their threat. Arsenal, by contrast, have conceded only three goals all season. The market leans toward a controlled away win with a moderate goal total rather than a high-scoring shoot-out.
Head to Head: Gunners strong
Arsenal have dominated their meetings with Fulham over the past decade, winning 10 of the last 18 encounters, drawing six, and losing just two. They have scored 39 goals in those matches compared to Fulham’s 20, averaging a goal difference of +1.06 per game.
The most recent clash came in April 2025, when Arsenal edged a 2-1 victory at the Emirates. Fulham did take a point in the reverse fixture last December, holding the Gunners to a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage, but that remains their only result against Arsenal in their last six meetings.
The wider pattern is clear: Fulham have beaten Arsenal only once since 2012, a 2-1 home win in December 2023, while Arsenal have won six of the last eight. With an average of 3.28 total goals per game across these fixtures, this matchup typically delivers goals but rarely an upset.
Players to watch: Timber to fell the Cottagers
Jurrien Timber looks a strong bet for 1+ shot against Fulham, especially considering how much threat Arsenal carry from set pieces. Mikel Arteta’s side average 5.29 shots per game from dead-ball situations, one of the highest figures in the league, and Timber has been heavily involved in those routines.
His timing when attacking the back post or drifting into space on second phases makes him a regular shooting option when Arsenal load the box.
That becomes even more relevant against a Fulham side that struggle to defend set plays. Marco Silva’s men concede 3.71 shots per match from set pieces and have allowed 1.03 xG from those situations at home, suggesting consistent vulnerability when defending deliveries.
With Martin Odegaard ruled out and more responsibility likely to fall on other outlets, Timber should continue to push forward and get on the end of at least one effort. Given Arsenal’s volume and Fulham’s weakness, 1+ shot looks a realistic and well-priced angle.
Predicted line-ups
Fulham (3-4-2-1): Leno; Castagne, Diop, Andersen, Bassey; Berge, Cairney; Iwobi, Wilson, Sessegnon; King
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Eze; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal look well placed to take all three points at Craven Cottage, but the numbers suggest a professional, low-scoring win rather than a rout. The combination of Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals fits the current form and data from both sides.
Fulham’s attacking output has dipped sharply in recent weeks. They have averaged just 0.85 xG per game across their last four and sit in the bottom six for shots on target per match (3.0).
Injuries have stripped away most of their threat. With Rodrigo Muniz ruled out, Raul Jimenez doubtful, Marco Silva’s side lack options in the final third. They have failed to score in three of seven league matches and average only six shots inside the box per game in that spell.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have built their season on control rather than chaos. Away from home they have averaged 1.65 xG for and only 0.7 xGA, keeping two clean sheets in three.
Six of their seven league fixtures have featured under 4.5 goals, and they have conceded just three times in total. Even without Martin Odegaard, their structure in possession and defensive balance remain strong, with opponents averaging fewer than eight shots per game against them.
History also backs this angle. Arsenal have won 10 of the last 18 meetings with Fulham, often by controlled score lines with seven of the last nine Arsenal victories in this fixture finished with four goals or fewer.
With Fulham short on attacking options and Arsenal’s matches consistently tight, a measured away win fits both the data and the rhythm of recent performances.
GambleAware