Flamengo face Esperance de Tunis in their opening match of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The matchup pits the Brazilian giants against a disciplined but limited Esperance side looking to defy the odds in Group D.
Flamengo qualified by winning the 2022 Copa Libertadores and arrive as a strong contender in their group, though they are not among the tournament favourites overall—currently priced at 35/1 to win the competition, with nine other teams at shorter odds. Domestically, they are in excellent form, with seven wins from their first eleven Serie A matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding just four. Manager Filipe Luis has made an impressive start to life on the touchline, winning three trophies in under a year and overseeing a run of eight clean sheets in eleven league outings. Leading the line is Pedro, who has returned from injury with five goals and two assists in under 500 minutes of action this season.
Esperance de Tunis enter the tournament via the CAF ranking pathway. With 33 league titles and four CAF Champions League trophies, they are one of Africa’s most decorated clubs. Their current side is compact, structured and defensively solid, although limited in the final third. They are unbeaten in their last eleven domestic matches and rely heavily on Youcef Belaili and Yan Sasse, who have combined for 13 goal contributions this season. However, the overall lack of goal threat is a concern against a team of Flamengo’s quality.
Flamengo may not be among the outright favourites, but they have the form, depth and experience to start their campaign strongly.
How the bookies view it: Hosts clear favourites
Flamengo are overwhelming favourites to get off to a winning start in Group D. The Brazilian giants are priced at 4/11 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw at 9/2 and Esperance de Tunis a huge 10/1 outsider.
The goals market leans toward a comfortable Flamengo win. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, with both teams to score at 6/5, indicating bookmakers do not expect Esperance to get on the scoresheet.
Head to Head: First meeting
Flamengo and Esperance de Tunis have never faced each other in a competitive match.
Predicted line-ups
Flamengo (4–3–3): Rossi; Wesley, Ortiz, Pereira, Ayrton; Gerson, Everton, Araujo; Arrascaeta, Pedro, Everton
Esperance de Tunis (4–3–3): Said; Bouchniba, Jelassi, Tougai, Hamida; Derbali, Ogbelu, Sasse; Jebali, Rodrigues, Belaili
Players to watch: Belaili a card magnet
Youcef Belaili is a highly talented but emotionally charged player whose style and role make him a strong candidate for a booking against Flamengo. As Esperance de Tunis’s creative outlet, he is likely to see plenty of the ball and engage in frequent duels, particularly against Flamengo’s aggressive pressing system. That increases the risk of tactical fouls—either when he loses possession and tries to recover it, or when Flamengo transition quickly through the midfield.
This season, Belaili has already picked up 14 yellow cards in 35 appearances, a high rate for an attacking player. Many of these bookings stem from tactical fouls, dissent, or emotional reactions in high-stakes situations. Flamengo’s experienced back line will look to frustrate him, and if he feels isolated or repeatedly fouled without calls going his way, he has a history of letting frustration show.
In a match where Esperance are likely to be out of possession and under pressure, Belaili may be forced into chasing back, disrupting counters, or arguing with officials. At this time, the referee appointment has not been made, but the combination of pressure and temperament suggests a strong chance of a booking.
Anything else catch the eye?
While Flamengo to win to nil is undoubtedly one of the standout angles for their Club World Cup opener, a slightly safer route is to back Flamengo double chance and both teams to score: No. This still leans into Flamengo’s exceptional defensive profile without requiring a full 90-minute clean sheet and win combination.
Defensively, Flamengo are the best side in Brazil right now—just four goals conceded in 11 games, eight clean sheets, and a league-best xGA of 0.58 per match. They allow only 8.3 shots per game and just 2.6 on target, with a settled back line that has recorded four straight clean sheets. Crucially, this is a dominant team, not a cautious one: they have scored 24 goals in that span, asserting control at both ends.
The gulf in quality is also notable. The Brazilian top division is far stronger than Tunisia’s Ligue Professionnelle in terms of tempo, depth, and tactical quality. Against an Esperance de Tunis side that lacks attacking edge and will likely sit deep, Flamengo should control the game. Taking the safer double chance and both teams to score NO option adds some insurance without giving up too much value.
GambleAware