Porto and Al Ahly meet in their final group match at the Club World Cup, both knowing only a win will give them a realistic chance of progressing. Each side has collected one point from their opening two games, and while Inter Miami and Palmeiras top the group on four points, goal difference may yet determine the final standings. A draw here likely sends both home.
Al Ahly have struggled for attacking output so far. They were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Palmeiras, managing just 0.29 xG with only two shots on target and just four efforts inside the box. In their goalless draw with Inter Miami, they missed a penalty and looked more dangerous late on, but it remains the case that they have not scored a single goal in 180 minutes. With goals at a premium and confidence low, they are unlikely to chase the game too early.
Porto, by contrast, have played with more attacking intent. They were poor in the 0-0 draw with Palmeiras but did enough to create 1.69 xG in the 2-1 defeat to Inter Miami. Crucially, they have dominated shot volume in both matches and look more comfortable playing on the front foot.
While neither team is clinical, Porto’s change to a 3-4-3 has offered them better midfield control and width through wing-backs. Against an Al Ahly side lacking penetration and relying on moments, Porto should have enough to edge this. Backing Porto to win and under 4.5 goals looks a sensible play in what should be a tight, low-scoring fixture.
How the bookies view it: Porto to edge it
Bookmakers have made Porto clear favourites for this must-win group stage clash. They are available at 4/5 to claim the victory, while Al Ahly are priced as outsiders at 15/4, and the draw sits at 31/10. The odds reflect the expectation that one side will go for the win, with little incentive to settle for a point.
In the goals markets, both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are priced at 7/10. That suggests the bookies expect a more open contest, likely influenced by the fact that both teams need to chase the game.
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Head to head: First meeting
Porto and Al Ahly have never faced each other before in any competitive match
Predicted line-ups
Porto (3-4-2-1): Ramos, Fernandes, Pedro, Marcano, Mario, Moura, Varela, Veiga, Vieira, Mora, Aghehowa
Al Ahly (4-3-3): El Shenawy, Hany, Ibrahim, Dari, Attiyat Allah, Attia, Fathy, Ben Romdhane, Zizo, Abou Ali, Trezeguet
Players to watch: Fab Fabio
Fabio Vieira has been one of Porto’s most influential players in the Club World Cup so far, registering two shots in each of their two group matches and consistently threatening from midfield. He is clearly full of confidence and has been heavily involved in Porto’s attacking phases, making him an appealing option in the shots market again here.
Across the season, he has played 26 games and taken 46 shots, with at least one shot in all 21 of his starts. He has had two or more shots in 12 of those, and with Porto needing a win to stay in the competition, they are expected to play on the front foot again. Vieira has played 90 and 83 minutes respectively in the first two matches, so there is every chance he features for most of this one too, boosting his opportunity to get shots away.
This bet is priced as low as 1/3 with Bet365, but several bookmakers have it available at 4/5, a significant difference that makes this stand out as good value. Given his role, shot history, and the game state, backing Vieira to have at least two shots looks a smart play at this price.
Anything else catch the eye?
Porto may have only scored once in two games, but the numbers suggest they have done more than enough to be on the scoresheet again—especially against an Al Ahly side that has looked increasingly fragile out of possession.
Against Inter Miami, Porto won the xG battle 1.69 to 0.95 and recorded 16 shots to Miami’s six. They created several good openings and could easily have scored more but lacked composure in the final third. The performance, however, was encouraging: they controlled possession, pushed both wing-backs high, and played the game largely in Miami’s half.
Gabri Veiga, Fabio Vieira and Alan Varela have offered creativity and forward movement from midfield, while Samu Aghehowa and Rodrigo Mora have been a handful up front. Al Ahly will struggle to cope with that shape, especially having conceded twice to Palmeiras in a game where they allowed 1.57 xGA.
Porto should enjoy more time in the final third than in either of their previous matches. If they maintain their current shot volume and improve efficiency even slightly, two goals is a very realistic target, especially against an Al Ahly team that looks vulnerable when chasing games.
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