Espanyol host Las Palmas in a crucial clash on Sunday. Espanyol, sitting 17th, must win to ensure La Liga survival. Las Palmas are already relegated and playing only for pride.
Espanyol have lost five straight games, conceding two or more in four. However, their home form is steadier, with just two defeats in their last 12 at the RCDE Stadium, both in the last two matches, one of which was against Barcelona. They have won four of those 12 and are W6-D4-L2 at home against sides currently seventh or below. This season, they have beaten Real Madrid and held Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao at home.
In 18 home games, Espanyol have kept three clean sheets, failed to score in four, and seen both teams score in 12. Eleven of those matches went under 2.5 goals. Statistically, they rank 18th in home xG (1.09), 13th in xGA (1.34), and 17th for home xPTS, though their actual record ranks 11th.
Las Palmas have also lost five straight, failing to score in four. Their away record is W4-D3-L11, with just one win in their last 10 trips. They have conceded 1.67 and scored 1.06 goals per away game, with only three teams earning fewer away points. They have managed one clean sheet and failed to score in six. Their away xG is just 0.87 (20th), with a high xGA of 2.28 (19th).
How the bookies view it: Home victory
Bookmakers have priced Espanyol as strong favourites at 21/50 (implied probability 70.4%) to win, reflecting their home advantage and the urgency of needing all three points to avoid relegation. The draw is available at 17/4, while Las Palmas are clear outsiders at 15/2, highlighting both their relegated status and poor away record.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/6 (54.6%), suggesting a slight lean toward a higher-scoring match, though confidence is limited. Both teams to score is offered at 57/50 (46.7%), indicating the market sees this as unlikely—consistent with recent form, as Las Palmas have failed to score in four of their last five games, and six of the last nine head-to-heads have seen only one team find the net.
Head to head: Honours even
Espanyol and Las Palmas have played each other nine times in total, with the head-to-head record perfectly balanced: three wins apiece and three draws. Their most recent meeting came in December 2024, when Las Palmas claimed a 1–0 win at home. Before that, Espanyol won 2–1 away in July 2023.
Interestingly, the last two meetings have both gone under 2.5 goals and seen only one team score. In fact, six of the nine matchups have seen both teams not score, while five of the nine have gone under 2.5 goals suggesting a slight historical lean toward lower-scoring and one-sided scoring outcomes.
Players to watch: Moleiro masterclass
Alberto Moleiro has been a standout performer for Las Palmas this season. He has made 32 starts and three substitute appearances, playing a total of 2,714 minutes. He scored 6 goals, with a xG tally of 5.6.
Moleiro has attempted 68 shots overall, with 24 on target, including 63 shots across his 32 starts. When starting, he registered at least one shot in 25 games and 2 or more shots in 14. Of those 14 games with 2+ shots, eight came against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Across all matches against bottom-half sides where he either started or came off the bench, Moleiro registered 35 shots in 16 games, averaging 2.18 shots per appearance in those fixtures. This highlights his tendency to get more involved offensively when facing weaker opposition.
Predicted line-ups
Marash Kumbulla is suspended for Espanyol, while Las Palmas will be without Jose Campana (suspended), and Fabio Silva and Stefan Bajcetic (injured
Espanyol (4-3-3): Garcia; El Hilali, Calero, Cabrera, Romero; Lozano, Gonzalez, Exposito; Carreras, Puado, Fernandez
Las Palmas (4-2-3-1): Horkas; Marmol, McKenna, Herzog, Rozada; Essugo, Loiodice; Januzaj, Moleiro, Ramirez; McBurnie
Anything else catch the eye?
Espanyol must at least match Leganes’ result to stay in La Liga, adding pressure to an already tense final day. A low-scoring game is expected, but if Leganes take the lead, nerves could quickly spread at the RCDE Stadium.
Discipline may be decisive. Espanyol average 2.11 cards per home game, collecting 1+ in 17 of 18 and 2+ in 14. Las Palmas average 3.06 away, with 1+ in 15, 2+ in 13, and 3+ in 10. Both teams have been carded in 13 Las Palmas away matches, with 2+ each in seven.
Referee Alejandro Muniz has shown 4.37 cards per game across 19 La Liga fixtures this season, issuing six reds and carding both sides in 16 of those games. The last nine meetings between these sides have averaged 6.78 cards, with both teams receiving 2+ in all nine and two red cards in the last three.
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