England and Italy meet on Tuesday, July 22 at the Stade de Geneve in the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 semi-final. The match brings together two sides with contrasting approaches and paths to this stage of the competition.
England finished second in Group D, winning twice and losing once, scoring 11 goals and conceding three. Their underlying numbers were excellent with an xG of 9.0, an xGA of 3.4, and strong xPTS that reflected their ability to create and control games. They showed their resilience in the quarter-final, coming from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Sweden before winning on penalties. England have created chances at a high rate all tournament and have shown the cutting edge to turn those into goals.
Italy also progressed as group runners-up, recording a win and a draw, scoring three and conceding four. Their xG of 4.2 and xGA of 3.0 illustrate a more cautious, efficient style of play. They upset Norway in the quarter-final, scoring a late winner to advance 2-1. Italy’s key moments have come through moments of individual quality, particularly from Cristiana Girelli, rather than sustained pressure. This semi-final sets up a fascinating tactical battle between England’s proactive, high-energy play and Italy’s structured and opportunistic game.
How the bookies view it: Uphill task for Italy
England are priced at 8/15 to win in 90 minutes, which implies they are clear favourites, with the draw at 18/5 and Italy at 11/2. The market also expects goals, with over 2.5 goals offered at 7/10 and both teams to score at 11/13. These odds reflect England’s strong attacking form and Italy’s tendency to concede but also to find a way to score, suggesting the bookmakers see a likely England win in a game with at least a few goals and both sides contributing to the score line.
Head to Head: Three Lions hold the advantage
England and Italy have faced each other nine times since 2009, with England winning six, Italy winning two, and one match ending in a draw. England have scored 21 goals and conceded 12 across these meetings. In the last five encounters, England have won four and drawn one, averaging four goals per game while conceding just one per match.
Each of those five matches saw over 2.5 goals, highlighting England’s attacking strength and Italy’s difficulty containing them. England also won the last two competitive meetings, with the most recent three matches producing two England victories and a draw, underlining their dominance in this fixture in recent years.
Players to watch: Caruso a danger
Arianna Caruso looks a strong candidate to be fouled at least three times in this match given her consistent ability to draw challenges. She has been fouled at least twice in all four games at this tournament, including three times in each of the last two, as opponents have targeted her influence in midfield.
Across those four games she has been fouled ten times, showing how difficult she is to dispossess cleanly. At club level she started two games for Bayern Munich and was fouled six times, maintaining the same pattern with an average of three per match. Her dribbling, composure, and willingness to carry the ball through congested areas force defenders into repeated fouls, making three or more today very plausible.
Predicted line-ups
England (4-3-3): Hampton, Bronze, Williamson, Carter, Greenwood, Toone, Walsh, Stanway, James, Russo, Hemp
Italy (4-3-3): Giuliani, Oliviero, Salvai, Linari, Di Guglielmo, Caruso, Giugliano, Severini, Bonansea, Girelli, Cantore
Anything else catch the eye?
England to win and over 1.5 goals looks a strong bet. England have scored in every game so far, showing an ability to find goals even under pressure. They put four past the Netherlands and six past Wales in the group stage, which highlights their ability to break down organised defences. Italy have conceded in all but one of their matches and allowed Norway to create several clear chances in the quarter final. England’s movement in wide areas and their ability to generate shots from inside the box have been key, and Italy have struggled to defend those spaces effectively.
Italy’s goals have largely come from isolated moments rather than sustained attacks, which makes it hard for them to keep pace if England score early. England have also won five of the last seven meetings between these sides, usually by scoring multiple goals, and their attacking depth suggests they can stretch Italy over 90 minutes. With England’s attacking quality and Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities, it seems likely England will win and that at least two goals will be scored in what should still be a competitive but open semi-final.
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