England host Wales at Wembley on Thursday in an Alzheimer’s Society International, a friendly in name but one that carries plenty of weight and national pride. For Wales, it is always a major fixture; for England, it’s another test under Thomas Tuchel, whose early months in charge have been about refining structure, tempo, and control.
England’s World Cup qualifying campaign could hardly have gone better. They have won all five matches so far, scoring 13 and conceding none. Their defensive control has been a clear strength, but performances have varied in style.
A 5-0 demolition of Serbia last month showed fluency and precision, but a sluggish 2-0 win over Andorra and a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Senegal in June revealed that the team still needs sharper attacking movement when facing low blocks. Tuchel is expected to make changes here, but not a complete overhaul.
With Harry Kane a doubt, Ollie Watkins should lead the line, while fringe players like Djed Spence, Marcus Rashford and Morgan Rogers could get valuable minutes as England continue to develop cohesion.
Wales come into this with 10 points from five World Cup qualifiers, sitting third behind Belgium and North Macedonia. Their results have been mixed with a strong win in Kazakhstan but a poor home loss to Canada last month.
Craig Bellamy’s side average 2.55 total goals per game across their last 20 fixtures, and while their attack is capable of moments of quality, their defence remains inconsistent. The absence of Aaron Ramsey, who suffered another setback in Mexico, leaves a hole in midfield leadership and experience.
It’s a meeting that always means more for the Welsh, and Bellamy’s men will be motivated to test themselves at Wembley. England, meanwhile, will look to maintain momentum and show further progress under Tuchel’s developing system.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
England are strong favourites for Thursday night’s Alzheimer’s Society International against Wales at Wembley, and the prices reflect just how dominant the bookmakers expect them to be. England are 2/7 to win, giving them an implied probability of around 78%, while the draw at 19/4 carries a 17% chance and a Wales win at 12/1 translates to roughly 8%.
The goals markets offer more balance. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, an implied probability of 55.6%, suggesting the market expects a reasonably open game but not a guaranteed goal-fest. England’s clean-sheet record and Wales’ compact shape have kept many of their recent fixtures below this line, though England’s superior quality in attack could push it over if they find early rhythm.
For both teams to score, the odds is 7/5, equating to a 41% chance. England have shut out every opponent in qualifying so far, while Wales have failed to score in three of their last six away games, so the value arguably leans towards both teams to score: No if England’s back line stays solid.
Recent head-to-head: Three Lions strong
Recent history between the two nations makes difficult reading for Wales. England have won all five of the last meetings, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one in that time. The average goal difference across those games is +2 per match, with England averaging 2.4 goals for and just 0.2 against.
The most recent meeting came at the 2022 World Cup, where England ran out 3-0 winners thanks to goals from Marcus Rashford and Phil Foden. Before that, England cruised to a 3-0 victory in a 2020 friendly and came from behind to win 2-1 at Euro 2016, when Daniel Sturridge struck a late winner in Lens.
Qualifying encounters in 2011 also went England’s way with a 2-0 in Cardiff and 1-0 at Wembley which underlines their consistent dominance in this fixture.
Wales have not beaten England since 1984, and the current data suggests that run is unlikely to change soon.
Players to watch: Wilson and Lewis-Skelly to contribute
The double on Myles Lewis-Skelly and Harry Wilson to each record over 0.5 shots makes strong appeal based on recent data and their roles in possession-dominant sides.
Myles Lewis-Skelly has started three qualifiers for England, totalling 257 minutes, one goal, one shot, and three tackles won while averaging 2.3 crosses and 3.0 final-third touches per game.
Though nominally a left-back, he operates almost as an auxiliary midfielder when England push forward. His strike in the 2-0 win against Albania showed both timing and confidence to shoot from open play, and his high average position makes another attempt likely against lower-ranked opposition.
Harry Wilson, meanwhile, has produced nine shots in his last four competitive internationals, hitting the target in three and scoring three times. He’s averaging 2.0 shots per 90 minutes and remains first choice on set pieces, offering chances to shoot from free kicks and recycled corners.
Both players are heavily involved in build-up and transition, and their recent output supports the combined over 0.5 shots each angle.
Predicted line-ups
England (4-3-3): Henderson; Spence, Konsa, Burn, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Anderson, Rogers; Saka, Watkins, Rashford.
Wales (4-2-3-1): Darlow; Williams, Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Ampadu, James; Johnson, Wilson, Thomas; Moore.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing England to win and under 3.5 goals makes plenty of sense for Thursday’s Wembley meeting. England are heavy favourites at 2/7, but the real value lies in combining their defensive control with a restrained score line.
Under Thomas Tuchel, England’s strength has been organisation and balance. They have averaged just 0.39 xGA per game in World Cup qualifying, facing fewer than seven shots per match and only 2.2 on target.
Their five qualifiers have produced a total of just 13 goals all of which have come for England, which underlines a pattern of controlled, low-event football rather than high-scoring chaos. Even their emphatic 5-0 win in Serbia came from efficient finishing rather than sustained attacking volume; England created 2.1 xG, showing precision more than aggression.
Wales’ recent matches support the low-goal angle too. They average 1.60 xG for and 0.95 xGA across their last 20 games, with 15 of those producing three goals or fewer.
Away from home, Bellamy’s side tend to sit deep, limit space, and look for moments in transition through Brennan Johnson or Harry Wilson. Their defensive record is not flawless, but they rarely get blown away, even in the 4-3 loss to Belgium, the xG split was only 2.8 to 1.6.
With Harry Kane a doubt and Ollie Watkins likely leading the line, England’s approach may be more patient than explosive. Tuchel is expected to rotate slightly but keep tactical consistency, favouring structured build up and compact spacing.
Wales will defend with numbers, and England’s control should gradually wear them down without a flood of goals. England’s record at Wembley supports it too with 10 of their last 12 home wins have seen under 3.5 goals. This looks another match to fit that trend.
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