Eintracht Frankfurt host Liverpool in the Champions League on Wednesday night in a match that already feels like a turning point for both sides.
The game takes place at Deutsche Bank Park, where Frankfurt have built a strong European reputation over the past few seasons. They have lost only one of their last ten UEFA competition group-stage or league-phase matches at home, winning seven and drawing two, including four straight victories.
Dino Toppmoller’s team approach this one in good form domestically and in Europe, combining an organised defensive structure with a sharp counter-attacking edge. Their recent xG data supports that efficiency, with strong conversion rates and consistent creation from wide areas. Frankfurt’s games rarely lack entertainment with only one of their last 67 UEFA matches has ended goalless which is a clear indicator of their open, front-foot approach in front of their home fans.
Liverpool, by contrast, arrive in poor shape. Arne Slot’s side are struggling for balance after four straight defeats, a run that has exposed flaws in both defence and attack. Their xPTS and xG numbers remain respectable, but the clinical edge of last season’s title-winning campaign has deserted them. They have conceded five goals from set pieces in eight league games and have looked open to counter-attacks.
There are still positives. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 European games against German clubs, winning eleven and drawing three. They also have Mohamed Salah chasing history as he is now just two goals away from becoming the first African player to score 50 in the Champions League.
The return of Hugo Ekitike to Frankfurt adds another storyline. The 23-year-old scored 26 goals in 64 games for the Bundesliga club before joining Liverpool this summer. His reunion comes at a difficult time for Slot’s side, who need a statement performance to steady their season.
How the bookies view it: Goals on the agneda
The bookmakers expect goals when Eintracht Frankfurt host Liverpool in the Champions League. Liverpool are favourites at 3/5, implying a 62.5% chance of victory, while Frankfurt are 9/2 outsiders (around 18% probability). The draw is priced at 15/4, which suggests roughly a 21% chance of the points being shared.
The goals markets tell their own story. Over 2.5 goals is 5/12, giving it a strong 70.6% implied probability, while both teams to score at 1/2 translates to a 66.7% chance. Those figures align neatly with both teams’ recent records and styles of play as Frankfurt’s last 67 UEFA matches have produced only one goalless result, and Liverpool’s last 28 in the group stage have all had a winner.
The odds reflect two sides who prefer front-foot football rather than containment. Frankfurt have scored in 20 consecutive home European games, while Liverpool, despite their domestic struggles, continue to create chances at a high rate under Arne Slot. With Mohamed Salah chasing a milestone 50th Champions League goal and Hugo Ekitike facing his former club, the attacking angles are everywhere.
Statistically and stylistically, this has the makings of an open contest and the market clearly expects both nets to bulge.
Recent head-to-head: First meeting
First competitive meeting between these two sides.
Players to watch: Burkardt to Slot in the goals for hosts
Jonathan Burkardt’s numbers this season make a strong case for him to be involved in front of goal again, with the data supporting a bet on 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target against Liverpool.
Across eight competitive appearances this season with six in the Bundesliga and two in the Champions League the Eintracht Frankfurt forward has produced 17 shots, averaging just over 2.1 per game, and seven of those have been on target. That is a shot accuracy rate of 41%, comfortably above average for a centre-forward. He has also scored six goals and provided one assist in that span, showing both form and confidence.
Burkardt’s expected numbers underline that this is no hot streak. He has generated 4.0 xG and 3.2 non-penalty xG, proving he is consistently getting into high-quality areas. His movement between defenders and willingness to shoot early have made him Frankfurt’s most reliable goal threat, taking at least two shots in six of his eight matches this season.
In Europe, he’s looked particularly sharp, scoring in both Champions League matches, including against Atletico Madrid, and putting three of four shots on target across those games. Against Liverpool, who have conceded in six straight matches and are struggling with defensive organisation and set-piece control, Burkardt’s pace and timing on the counter could be key.
Frankfurt’s direct attacking style at home creates steady shooting volume even against stronger sides, and Burkardt is the clear focal point. With his current strike rate, shot output, and form in both competitions, the data strongly supports Burkardt 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target as a confident and repeatable play.
Predicted line-ups
Eintracht Frankfurt (4-2-3-1): Kaua, Kristensen, Koch, Amenda, Theate, Larsson, Chaibi, Doan, Uzun, Brown, Burkardt
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili, Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Salah, Gakpo, Isak
Anything else catch the eye?
All signs point to goals when Eintracht Frankfurt and Liverpool meet on Wednesday. Both teams have attacking intent built into their identity, and the underlying data supports a high-scoring contest.
Frankfurt have seen both teams score in six of their last eight competitive matches, while 12 of their previous 14 UEFA group-stage or league-phase games have featured over 2.5 goals. They have scored in 20 straight home European matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in six of the last seven. With creative midfielders like Mario Gotze and productive wide play, they average close to 1.8 xG per home game in continental competition. Only one of their last 67 UEFA fixtures has ended goalless, making them one of the most reliable both teams to score teams in Europe.
Liverpool’s recent numbers also lean strongly towards goals. Despite their poor run, Slot’s men continue to generate chances, producing an average xG of 1.9 per game across their last five. Defensively, they are vulnerable as they have conceded in eight consecutive matches and allowing 1.7 xGA in their 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray. They have also conceded five goals from set pieces in eight league matches, underlining how easily they can be opened up.
The Reds’ Champions League record adds weight to the bet. None of their last 28 group-stage or league-phase matches have finished level, and 22 of those saw over 2.5 goals.
Frankfurt’s home energy and Liverpool’s chaotic form both suggest a game full of attacking moments rather than control. Given the data trends and defensive fragility on both sides, backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score looks a logical, data-driven selection
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