Crystal Palace continue their Europa Conference League campaign on Thursday night when they host AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park. It’s a clash between the competition favourites and one of the outsiders, but both teams arrive in good form after encouraging starts to the season.
Oliver Glasner’s Palace have developed into a well-balanced, disciplined side that mixes structure with attacking purpose. They have lost just once in 12 matches across all competitions and come into this fixture unbeaten at home.
Their performances have been backed by strong process data as Palace sit second in the Premier League for xPTS (15.3) and have generated 17.4 xG, more than any other team outside Arsenal. They have conceded only eight league goals and continue to create quality chances, averaging 0.16 xG per shot and recording 43 shots on target from 108 attempts.
Larnaca travel as big underdogs but with confidence after a 4-0 win over AZ Alkmaar in their group opener, where they produced 2.6 xG and conceded just 0.4. Domestically, they sit fifth in Cyprus with 13 points from seven games, scoring 14 goals but showing inconsistency defensively. Their xPTS total of around nine reflects a capable but unsteady side that can be dangerous when given space.
For Palace, this is their second European home game under Glasner, and Selhurst Park will be full for the occasion. The Austrian coach has quickly built an organised unit capable of controlling games, and this competition represents a genuine opportunity for silverware.
With Palace installed as 10/3 favourites to win the tournament and Larnaca priced at 50/1, the gulf is clear but Glasner’s side will be wary of a team that can punish lapses from wide areas or set plays.
How the bookies view it: Hosts huge favourites
Crystal Palace remain clear favourites for their Europa Conference League clash with AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park, though their price has drifted slightly to 2/11. That still represents an implied probability of around 84%, showing how dominant Oliver Glasner’s side are expected to be on home soil.
The draw is currently 13/2, giving it an implied chance of roughly 13%, while AEK Larnaca sit at 17/1, translating to an implied probability of about 5.5%. Those figures underline the gulf in depth and quality between a top-half Premier League side and a Cypriot team competing well domestically but still short of this level.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals trades at 8/15, suggesting a 65% chance of at least three goals. That fits the data: Palace have generated 17.4 xG in eight league games and scored multiple goals in four of their last five home fixtures. Glasner’s side also lead the Premier League in set-piece xG (5.84), a consistent source of chances.
For a slightly longer-priced option, both teams to score is at 6/4, implying a 40% probability. Palace’s defensive record with just eight goals conceded in the league and only 0.4 xGA in their win away to Dynamo Kyiv suggests they are more likely to keep control throughout.
Recent head-to-head: First meeting
First competitive meeting between these two clubs.
Players to watch: Mateta to fire for Palace
Jean-Philippe Mateta looks a strong bet to score anytime against AEK Larnaca. The Crystal Palace forward is in excellent form under Oliver Glasner, with five goals in eight Premier League appearances and another in Europe. His underlying numbers make the case even stronger as Mateta has generated 7.7 xG domestically, the highest in the Palace squad, and averages 0.96 xG per 90 minutes, showing he consistently gets on the end of high-quality chances.
He has also been clinical from penalties and reliable in open play, with 13 of his 26 shots on target this season. Palace’s attacking structure suits him perfectly, using wide service and set pieces to supply their focal striker. Glasner’s side lead the Premier League for set-piece xG (5.84), an area where Mateta’s movement and positioning are a constant threat.
With Larnaca conceding freely away from home and struggling to defend aerial deliveries, Mateta should have multiple opportunities to add to his total and looks well priced as an anytime scorer.
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson; Munoz, Lacroix, Guehi, Richards; Wharton, Hughes, Kamada; Pino, Mateta, Sarr
AEK Larnaca (4-2-3-1): Alomerovic; Ekpolo, Roberge, Milicevic, Gnali; Pons, Ledes; Chacon, Rohden, Rubio; Bajic
Anything else catch the eye?
Crystal Palace are overwhelming favourites to beat AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park, priced at just 2/11 to win. That reflects the clear gulf in quality under Oliver Glasner, but those odds offer little betting value. Instead, there is a smarter way to approach the match with focusing on Palace’s set-piece dominance and backing their three centre-backs to record a shot on target.
Palace have been exceptional from dead-ball situations this season. They have created 5.84 xG from set pieces, the highest in the Premier League, and scored four set-piece goals. Over one-third of their total xG has come from corners or free kicks, showing how central that threat is to Glasner’s approach.
Maxence Lacroix, Marc Guehi, and Chris Richards all provide consistent aerial threat. Palace have attempted 42 shots from set plays, more than any other side in the league, and their centre backs average around 2.3 shots per match, most from inside the box. Against a Larnaca side that conceded 1.4 xGA per game domestically and allowed nine big chances to AZ Alkmaar in their last European outing, that matchup looks very favourable.
The wider numbers also point to a controlled home win. Palace’s 17.4 xG and 15.3 xPTS underline how dominant they’ve been in both shot creation and territorial control, while Larnaca’s defensive record with seven goals conceded in seven domestic matches exposes their vulnerability when defending deliveries or second phases.
With Palace so short in the match odds, targeting their set-piece strength offers a more logical route to value. Backing Lacroix, Guehi, and Richards each to record a shot on target aligns with the data and the tactical pattern Glasner’s team have built. It’s the most effective way to back a Palace win at a realistic price.
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