Club Brugge and Red Bull Salzburg meet at the Jan Breydel Stadium on Tuesday in the second leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie, with Brugge holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg in Austria.
Brugge’s season is already well underway. They’ve won three of their four competitive matches, including a 2-0 league victory over Cercle Brugge at the weekend. Their underlying numbers are encouraging, posting over 1.5 xG in all league games so far and controlling more than 56% possession in each. Last season they were Belgium’s top home side by xG difference and carried that strength into Europe, beating Aston Villa, Sporting CP and Atalanta in Bruges. Manager Nicky Hayen has kept the core of the side together, with Hans Vanaken again central, while adding depth in key areas.
Salzburg’s season started earlier with the Club World Cup in June, where they beat Pachuca, drew with Al-Hilal, and lost to Real Madrid. Their early 2025/26 results have been mixed: they advanced past Brann in the second qualifying round but were held 1-1 at home in the second leg, and domestically they’ve drawn with Ried and beaten Grazer AK 5-0.
In the first leg against Brugge, Salzburg had less possession (46%) but were the more active shooters, registering 20 attempts with five on target. However, only one of those was classed as a big chance, underlining a lack of real cutting edge despite their volume of shots. Brugge, by contrast, created higher-quality openings and took the lead through Antonio Nusa’s second-half strike.
With Salzburg needing to score at least once to stay alive in the tie, the second leg is likely to see them push forward. But they face a Brugge side that has been consistently strong at home in Europe and rarely gives much away.
How the bookies view it: Host favourites to progress
Club Brugge are priced at 4/6 to win, which implies a 60% chance of victory, while the draw is 16/5 (23.8%) and Salzburg are 4/1 (20%). The market slightly favours goals, with over 2.5 goals at 5/8 implying a 61.5% probability, and both teams to score at 8/11 suggesting a 57.9% chance. These prices reflect Brugge’s strong position after their 1-0 away win in the first leg and their impressive home record in Europe, while Salzburg’s low win probability mirrors their poor away record in last season’s Champions League and the challenge of overturning a deficit in Bruges.
Head to Head: Hosts edge the historical record
Club Brugge and RB Salzburg have met three times in competitive action, with Brugge winning twice and Salzburg once. Their first meetings came in the 2018/19 Europa League, when Brugge won 2-1 at home before Salzburg responded with a 4-0 victory in Austria to progress. This season’s Champions League third qualifying round has tilted the record further in Brugge’s favour, as they won the first leg 1-0 away and followed it up with another 1-0 victory at home, giving them the upper hand in the recent head-to-head.
Players to watch: Tzolis a constant threat
Christos Tzolis looks a strong anytime scorer option for Club Brugge against Salzburg. He has started the new season in good form, scoring twice in three league matches and taking 16 shots with six on target. His domestic xG already sits at 1.8, underlining his ability to consistently find scoring positions.
Last season in the Champions League he started all 12 games, producing 26 shots, 10 on target, and 2.1 xG. He scored away at Sturm Graz and also provided two assists, showing he can contribute in big European matches. In the first leg against Salzburg, Tzolis completed the full 90 minutes and, while he did not score, he posted an xG of 0.27 and an xAG of 0.12 for a combined 0.39 goal involvement, highlighting that he still found himself in dangerous situations.
Given Salzburg’s away struggles in last season’s Champions League with 17 goals conceded in five matches and Brugge’s strong home attack, Tzolis is well-placed to take advantage if a chance falls his way.
Predicted line-ups
Club Brugge (4-3-3): Mignolet, Seys, Mechele, Spileers, Meijer, Onyedika, Vanaken, Vetlesen, Vermant, Tzolis, Reis
RB Salzburg (4-2-2-2): Schlager, Lainer, Rasmussen, Gadou, Kratzig, Bidstrup, Kjaergaard, Kitano, Diabate, Vertessen, Dorgeles
Anything else catch the eye?
Club Brugge’s home record in Europe shows why they are well positioned to win here while keeping the scoreline contained. Last season in the Champions League they won four of six home matches, conceding just six goals in that run. Against sides outside Europe’s elite, they regularly kept opponents to under 1.0 xG at the Jan Breydel.
In the first leg, Salzburg produced 20 shots, with 5 on target. That volume, however, translated into just one big chance, reflecting a lack of real cutting edge. Brugge, despite conceding more shots overall, had three more big chances despite having fewer shots, although did end the game losing the xG battle (1.82 vs 1.28).
Salzburg’s European away record last season was W1-D1-L3, conceding 17 goals. Their defeats included heavy scorelines with 5-0 at Leverkusen, 5-1 at Real Madrid, and 3-0 at Sparta Prague and in those games they struggled to generate high-quality chances while leaving themselves open at the back.
Brugge’s settled squad, with key players like Hans Vanaken and Christos Tzolis in form, is well suited to controlling the pace and limiting Salzburg’s threat. With a first-leg lead to protect, they can afford to manage the game, focusing on defensive organisation and picking their moments to attack.
That combination points to a home win without the match turning into a high-scoring shootout, making Brugge to win and under 4.5 goals a strong betting angle.
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