The FIFA Club World Cup final takes place this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, with Chelsea facing Paris Saint-Germain in what promises to be a fascinating clash. Both teams have been excellent throughout the competition and arrive with plenty of confidence and ambition to lift the trophy.
Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca, have shown resilience and flashes of brilliance. They secured their place in the final by beating Fluminense 2-0 in the semi-final, thanks to a debut brace from Joao Pedro. Their campaign has seen them score in five of six games, keeping three clean sheets along the way. Their attacking output has been strong, creating 18 big chances across the tournament and averaging 10.4 xG). Defensively, they have conceded five goals and recorded 5.9 xGA, which reflects a solid but not flawless back line.
PSG, led by Luis Enrique, have been even more impressive. They cruised past Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich earlier in the competition before dismantling Real Madrid 4-0 in the semi-final. They have scored in every match, keeping five clean sheets, conceding just once, and racking up 12.5 xG. PSG have created 24 big chances in six games and limited opponents to just 3.5 xGA, underlining their dominance at both ends of the pitch.
With Chelsea’s defensive structure tested by PSG’s relentless attack, this final offers an intriguing contrast of styles and quality. Both sides are capable of lifting the trophy, but PSG’s consistency makes them slight favourites.
How the bookies view it: PSG favourites
Chelsea head into the final as clear underdogs at 22/5, with the draw priced at 17/5 and PSG strong favourites at 4/6 to win in 90 minutes. Goals are expected, with over 2.5 goals offered at 7/12, and both teams to score also at 4/6, reflecting the attacking quality on both sides and PSG’s potent forward line.
Head to Head: Honours evens
Chelsea and PSG have faced each other eight times in competitive matches, with PSG winning three, Chelsea winning two and three games ending in draws. Their rivalry has been tight and often dramatic, particularly in the Champions League knockout stages. Chelsea’s best result came in 2014 when they won 2‑0 at home to progress on away goals. PSG got the better of Chelsea in the next two encounters, winning both legs 2‑1 in 2016 and going unbeaten in four consecutive meetings. These matches have often been close, with several draws and narrow wins, reflecting how evenly matched the sides have been historically. PSG hold a slight edge in the head-to-head record and will carry that confidence into Sunday’s final.
Players to watch: Kvaratskhelia from distance
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia looks a smart bet to register a shot on target from outside the box in the final. Across the Club Championship he has attempted 20 shots, with 7 on target, showing both high volume and good accuracy. Of those 20 shots, 5 have come from outside the area, underlining his confidence to strike from range. He has also hit the target in five of six games, proving his reliability.
His tendency to cut inside and face goal often forces defenders to drop off, giving him the space he needs to shoot from distance. With PSG expected to have most of the ball and Chelsea likely to defend deep, opportunities from the edge of the area or beyond should present themselves. Given his consistency, shot profile and proven ability from outside the box, backing him to test the goalkeeper from distance looks a strong play.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; James, Colwill, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Nkunku, Palmer, Neto; Pedro
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Disasi, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Doue
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Paris Saint-Germain to win and over 1.5 goals looks like a sensible approach for the final, combining their attacking power with their tendency to dominate games.
PSG’s attack is full of players who can score from a range of situations. They have been ruthless in front of goal, scoring at least two goals in all but one of their matches during this tournament. With players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, they regularly create chances both through the middle and out wide, stretching defences and exploiting gaps.
The over 1.5 goals part of the bet also has plenty of merit. Finals can be cagey at times, but PSG’s style under Luis Enrique has been anything but cautious. Their speed and precision in transition, combined with their ability to maintain pressure in the final third, has led to matches where goals tend to follow.
Even if Chelsea manage to find a way past PSG’s defence, it would only add to the likelihood of the game seeing more than one goal while still leaving PSG as the more likely winners. This combination bet balances value with strong underlying trends.
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