The Premier League spotlight falls on the Amex Stadium on Sunday as Brighton & Hove Albion host Manchester City in one of the standout fixtures of the weekend. Brighton begin Fabian Hurzeler’s second season in charge on the back of an excellent debut campaign, when they finished 8th and earned widespread praise for their attacking, fearless approach. Expectations are now higher, with supporters hoping the club can establish itself as a consistent top-half presence.
Last season’s progress owed much to astute recruitment and swift adaptation. The arrivals of Matt O’Riley from Celtic and Yankuba Minteh from Anderlecht last summer gave Brighton added creativity and directness, and both were influential across the campaign. Crucially, the club retained key figures this summer, with Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke all still in place, ensuring continuity and stability.
The start to this season has been frustrating in terms of results, with just one point from two games, but performances suggest Brighton are stronger than the table shows. Their expected points tally of 3.74 ranks in the top four, they sit second in the league for shots on target per game, and their defeat at Everton highlighted the theme: Mitoma struck the bar, Van Hecke hit the post, Welbeck saw a penalty saved, and Jordan Pickford delivered a decisive display.
Manchester City arrive in Sussex after a mixed opening fortnight. A comfortable 2-0 win away at Wolverhampton Wanderers showed familiar control, but a 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur exposed issues. Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush both missed big chances, while goalkeeper James Trafford endured a shaky performance, leaving Pep Guardiola to consider recalling Ederson amid links with Galatasaray. Even so, City’s metrics remain elite: 2.1 xG per game, a 71.2% ratio, and consistent inside-the-box creation.
It all points towards a compelling contest at the Amex.
How the bookies view it: City strong favourites
The bookmakers make Manchester City favourites at 10/11, which gives them a 52.4% implied chance of victory, while both Brighton & Hove Albion and the draw are priced at 3/1, each carrying a 25% chance. The goal markets point firmly towards an open contest, with over 2.5 goals at 8/13 (61.9%) and both teams to score trading even shorter at 11/20 (64.5%). That aligns closely with the data: Brighton’s home fixtures last season saw both teams to score land in 74% of matches, while City are yet to keep a clean sheet this campaign. In short, the market expects goals and leans towards City edging it, but Brighton are respected enough to suggest they have a real chance of taking something from the game.
Head to Head: City dominate this fixture
Manchester City have dominated this fixture since Brighton’s promotion, winning 13 of the 17 meetings, with Brighton recording just two victories and two draws. City have scored 44 goals to Brighton’s 13, averaging 2.6 per game, but the Seagulls have shown more resistance in recent seasons.
Brighton’s famous 3-2 comeback win in May 2021 and their 2-1 victory in November 2024 are their only Premier League successes in the head-to-head, while they also drew 1-1 in May 2023 and 2-2 at the Etihad in March 2025. That means Brighton have taken points in three of the last five league encounters, a sign that the gap has narrowed even if City remain the historically dominant side.
Players to watch: 100 up for Erling
Erling Haaland marks his 100th appearance for Manchester City this weekend and he does so with an extraordinary return of 87 goals in his first 99 games. That strike rate alone makes him a strong candidate in the anytime scorer market, but the numbers this season strengthen the case even further.
Across City’s opening two Premier League fixtures, no player has generated a higher xG total than Haaland, with 2.5 xG recorded. He has already scored twice, both in the win at Wolverhampton Wanderers, and even in the defeat to Tottenham Hotspur he registered 0.5 xG despite being kept quiet for long spells. His volume of touches in the penalty area, 34 across the two games, shows how consistently he finds himself in the most dangerous zones.
Brighton, meanwhile, have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and last year managed only three at home in the entire campaign. Fabian Hurzeler’s side play expansively and leave space that a forward like Haaland thrives upon. With the Norwegian leading the league in xG and carrying his usual weight of chances, he is a standout pick to score at any time.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton & Hove Albion (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, Dunk, Van Hecke, Minteh, Baleba, Welbeck, Mitoma, Ayari, Wieffer, De Cuyper, O’Riley
Manchester City (4-1-4-1): Trafford, Lewis, Stones, Dias, Ake, Reijnders, Gonzalez, Doku, Cherki, Marmoush, Haaland
Anything else catch the eye?
The case for backing both teams to score and for each side to collect a card is strong ahead of Brighton & Hove Albion’s clash with Manchester City. Brighton’s underlying numbers show that they are creating plenty, even if finishing has let them down. They are averaging 9.5 shots on target per game across their opening two matches, the second-highest figure in the division, with 60% of their attempts coming from inside the penalty area. That kind of volume inevitably leads to chances converted, even against a side with Manchester City’s defensive quality.
Manchester City, meanwhile, remain one of the most reliable attacking outfits in Europe. Erling Haaland has already recorded over two shots on target per game this season, while Omar Marmoush provides an extra layer of penetration. The team are averaging nine shots in the box per game with almost 70% of their efforts taken from inside dangerous areas. Even in their defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, they created opportunities but were guilty of wasteful finishing. With that level of production, a goal for Pep Guardiola’s side looks very likely.
The card angle is also appealing. Brighton have already committed 15 fouls in a single match this season, reflecting Fabian Hurzeler’s pressing system and the aggressive challenges it invites. Manchester City, for their part, are averaging six offsides per game, a sign of their high line and forward movement that regularly draws tactical fouls from opponents. Both teams are also prone to picking up cautions in these high-tempo fixtures.
With Brighton creating heavily and Manchester City almost certain to score, the expectation is for both nets to be found. Add in the fouling profiles, and the bet of both teams to score and each side to receive a card looks very strong.
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