Brentford host Liverpool at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday evening, live on TNT Sports, in a fixture that should deliver goals and tempo between two sides trending upward.
Keith Andrew’s side have found consistency again after a flat start, winning two of their last three league matches which is more than in their previous seven combined. Their underlying numbers back up that improvement.
Over the last four games, Brentford have averaged 1.51 xG for and 0.99 xGA, putting them 10th for xPTS (5.72) in that stretch. Across the season, they sit 8th overall for xPTS (11.59), underpinned by 1.37 xG for and 1.02 xGA per game. The process remains balanced, even if results have not fully caught up.
Brentford’s recent data reflects control and competitiveness. They have created four big chances and conceded three in their last four matches, while across the season they have allowed only nine big chances which is a solid defensive return. At home, the Bees have scored in every match this season and continue to threaten from set pieces and quick transitions.
Liverpool, meanwhile, arrive in excellent form after their 5–1 Europa League win over Frankfurt on Wednesday, which showcased their attacking power under Arne Slot. The Reds produced 2.6 xG that night, with Florian Wirtz, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Curtis Jones dominating midfield and Cody Gakpo and Jeremie Frimpong providing width. Mo Salah is expected to return to the starting lineup, giving Slot even more attacking options.
In the Premier League, Liverpool sit second for xPTS (14.83) and average 1.86 xG per game, rising to 2.14 non-penalty xG over the last four. They have created six big chances in that period which is the fourth-highest in the league and have scored in all eight Premier League meetings with Brentford. With both sides improving, Saturday night should bring pace, chances, and plenty of intensity.
How the bookies view it: Reds clear favourites
Liverpool are clear favourites heading into Saturday’s trip to the Gtech Community Stadium. The visitors are priced at 8/11, which gives them an implied win probability of around 57.9%. Brentford are 77/20, equating to roughly a 20.6% chance of victory, while the draw at 10/3 implies about a 23.1% chance. The odds reflect Liverpool’s stronger attacking metrics and recent upturn under Arne Slot.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 11/20, suggesting an implied probability of around 64.5%, while both teams to score is 7/12, equivalent to roughly 63.6%. Those prices indicate that bookmakers expect an open, high-scoring game rather than a cagey one.
That view aligns with both teams’ recent data. Liverpool’s matches have averaged over three goals per game, and they have scored in every Premier League meeting with Brentford. The Reds average 1.86 xG per game this season and 2.14 non-penalty xG across their last four.
Brentford have scored in every home fixture and generate 1.37 xG per match, showing enough attacking intent to test Liverpool’s back line. The market’s confidence in goals looks well placed given both sides’ current trends.
Head to Head: Liverpool dominate
Liverpool have dominated this fixture since Brentford’s promotion to the Premier League, winning six of the eight meetings and drawing one. The only Brentford victory came in January 2023, a 3–1 win at home.
Across those eight games, Liverpool have scored 19 goals to Brentford’s seven, averaging 2.38 goals per match compared to Brentford’s 0.88. Recent history is one-sided: Liverpool have won the last five encounters, scoring 12 and conceding just one in that run.
The Reds’ control has been consistent both home and away, with four straight clean sheets in the fixture. Brentford’s best moments came early in the rivalry with the 3–3 draw in 2021 and their home win the following season but since then Liverpool have reasserted dominance.
The data reflects that superiority, with Liverpool’s xG output significantly higher in each meeting and their attack consistently creating clear chances against Keith Andrews’ side.
Players to watch: Writz finally starting to play
It’s been a frustrating start to the Premier League season for Florian Wirtz, who has struggled to make a consistent impact since arriving at Liverpool. In eight league appearances, he is yet to score or assist, and his influence in the final third has often been limited.
Despite tidy build-up play and flashes of technical quality, Wirtz has found it difficult to affect games in the same way he has in Europe or at international level.
That changed in midweek. Slot’s decision to alter Liverpool’s shape for the Europa League tie against Frankfurt gave Wirtz more freedom between the lines, and the 22-year-old responded with his best performance of the season, providing two assists and regularly finding space behind the opposition midfield.
His link-up with Szoboszlai and Gakpo was sharp, and Liverpool looked far more fluid with Wirtz operating centrally rather than from wide areas.
If Slot keeps the same system against Brentford, Wirtz could finally carry that confidence into domestic form. The Bees’ man-oriented midfield can leave space between defence and midfield which is the exact zones where Wirtz thrives.
After creating chances so comfortably in midweek, he looks a genuine threat to either score or assist if given similar licence to roam on Saturday.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher, Kayode, Collins, van den Berg, Ajer, Henderson, Yarmoliuk, Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade, Thiago
Liverpool (4-4-2): Mamardashvili, Frimpong, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson, Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Jones, Gakpo, Salah, Ekitike
Anything else catch the eye?
Liverpool’s attacking process is back at elite levels. They have scored two or more in six of nine Premier League matches, rank second for xG (1.86), and over their last four games have averaged 2.14 non-penalty xG per match. In that period, they have created six big chances, with only three sides producing more, and their total of 10.5 shots in the box per game shows how consistently they create pressure close to goal.
Their 5–1 win over Frankfurt in midweek underlined how dangerous they are when the system clicks. Slot’s tactical shift which meant giving Wirtz freedom between the lines, Gakpo and Frimpong width, and midfielders licence to push forward generated 3.21 xG and their most fluent attacking performance of the season.
Brentford’s defensive process is strong but not watertight. They have allowed 1.02 xGA per game overall and 1.62 xGA across their last four matches, conceding three big chances in that run and nine across the season. Opponents are averaging 8.0 shots inside the box per match, which suits Liverpool’s movement and volume of central attacks.
Discipline trends strengthen the second leg of the bet. Referee Simon Hooper averages 5.3 cards per game and has booked both teams in five of seven Premier League fixtures this season. Brentford’s home matches have seen both sides carded in all four, while Liverpool’s away games have averaged almost five cards overall.
Both sides play at a high tempo, press aggressively, and draw tactical fouls which are all key ingredients for bookings. Combining Liverpool’s top-tier attacking numbers with Hooper’s card profile makes Liverpool over 1.5 goals and both teams to be carded an appealing, data-backed selection. Expect goals, fouls, and plenty of edge in another intense Premier League clash.
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