Brazil sit fourth in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings with a record of W6-D4-L5, collecting 22 points. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 16. At home, they have been strong with a W5-D1-L1 record, their only loss coming in a 1–0 defeat to Argentina. Defensively, they have conceded in five of their seven home games, with both teams scoring in four. Just three of those matches went over 2.5 goals, and while their home games average 2.71 goals, that figure is skewed by a 5–1 win over Bolivia.
Paraguay are currently third with a record of W6-D6-L3 and 24 points. They have the best defensive record in the group, conceding just nine goals in 15 matches and keeping eight clean sheets. They are unbeaten in their last nine qualifiers, a run that includes victories over both Argentina and Brazil. However, their away form has been modest, with a record of W0-D5-L2. They have scored just four goals and conceded six on the road, failing to score in their first five away games. Their attack has improved recently, drawing their last two away fixtures 2–2.
Looking at scoring patterns, Brazil have seen both teams score in 57% of home games. Over 2.5 goals have been recorded in 33% of their fixtures overall, with that rising to 43% at home. Paraguay’s matches, by contrast, have generally been tighter. Both teams to score has occurred in only 29% of their away games —while over 2.5 goals have featured in just 29% of their away fixtures.
The data suggests Brazil’s home matches are relatively open, with a fair chance of both teams scoring and occasional high-scoring outcomes. Paraguay’s games tend to be more controlled and defensive, particularly at home, though their recent away draws hint at greater attacking ambition.
How the bookies view it: Home win
Bookmakers make Brazil strong favourites for their World Cup qualifier against Paraguay, pricing a home win at 4/9, which implies a 69.2% chance of victory. A draw is available at 4/1, while a Paraguay win is a long shot at 15/2.
The market also leans toward a low-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 39/40, implying a 50.6% chance, while both teams to score is 11/8, giving it an implied probability of 42.1%.
Head to head: Brazil dominate
Brazil and Paraguay have a long footballing history, having faced each other at least 85 times, with Brazil dominating the head-to-head record—winning 52 matches compared to Paraguay’s 14, with roughly 19 draws. While Brazil has historically held the upper hand, Paraguay has produced notable upsets, including a 1–0 win in this World Cup qualifying campaign.
Brazil, however, responded with a commanding 4–1 win in the 2024 Copa America. In recent meetings, Paraguay has failed to score in four of the last eight encounters, while Brazil has found the net in six of those matches.
Predicted line-ups
Brazil (4-3-3): Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Ribeiro, Sandro; Casemiro, Guimaraes, Gerson; Estevao, Richarlison, Vinicius
Paraguay (4-4-2): Fernandez; Caceres, Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Gomez, Cubas, Galarza, Enciso; Almiron, Sanabria.
Players to watch: Enciso to shot on sight
Julio Enciso is a standout figure for Paraguay going into this crucial World Cup qualifier. The lively forward has played 702 minutes in the campaign so far, scoring three goals and registering one assist. He has attempted 24 shots, with 11 on target, and continues to be one of Paraguay’s most reliable attacking threats.
Enciso has taken two or more shots in six of his nine appearances, including five of his last six, and has hit the target in seven of those games—an impressive 77% hit rate. In Paraguay’s most recent qualifier, he found the net from the penalty spot and produced four shots, two of which were on target, further underlining his growing influence in the final third.
When these sides last met, he managed a shot on target against Brazil, showing he’s comfortable taking on top opposition. He’s priced at 8/13 with Bet365 (61.9% implied probability), which looks close to his true odds based on output. However, Unibet’s 13/10 (43.5%) represents clear value given his current strike rate and consistent involvement in Paraguay’s attacking play.
Anything else catch the eye?
Paraguay +1.25 Asian Handicap looks like a strong value bet ahead of their clash with Brazil. While Brazil are the favourites, their recent form has been patchy, with just six wins in 15 qualifiers and a home record that includes conceding in five of seven matches. Paraguay, meanwhile, are unbeaten in nine qualifiers and boast the best defensive record in the group, with only nine goals conceded and eight clean sheets.
They have already beaten Brazil once in this campaign and have shown improved attacking form, drawing their last two away games 2–2 after failing to score in their first five on the road. With a +1.25 line, the bet only loses if Brazil win by two or more goals. If Brazil win by exactly one goal, half the stake is refunded and the other half is graded as a win. A draw or Paraguay win pays in full. Given the context, this handicap offers excellent value and protection.
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