Bournemouth looked like surprise contenders for a European spot earlier in the season, but Andoni Iraola’s side have stumbled badly in recent months. The Cherries are now winless in their last eight across all competitions, including a 2-2 draw with West Ham last weekend. Despite just one win in their last eight Premier League matches—and having conceded in all of them—they still sit sixth for xPTS over that period. They also rank third for non-penalty xG ratio and no team has generated more xG from open play over the last eight games. However, they have also been vulnerable at the back, with only four teams conceding more big chances in that time.
Their home record is mixed (W6-D3-L6), with matches averaging 2.20 goals, but recent trends are more encouraging for goals backers: both teams have scored in each of their last five, and five of the last six have seen over 2.5 goals land.
Fulham arrive on a high after a thrilling 3-2 win over Liverpool last weekend. That result pushed them into the top eight and back into the European conversation. Away from home, Marco Silva’s side have scored in all but one match (opening day at Old Trafford), with games averaging 2.73 goals. They have kept just three clean sheets on the road.
While Fulham are only 15th for xPTS and 11th for non-penalty xG ratio over the last eight, they remain 4th for xPTS across the full season. Both sides carry attacking threat—and vulnerabilities—making goals likely here.
How the bookies view it: Both sides to find the net
The hosts are slight favourites at 2.20, with Fulham priced at 3.35 and the draw at 3.65. The odds suggest goals are expected, with over 2.5 goals available at 1.75, whilst both teams to score is available as low as 1.62 which suggests that the bookies believe that there is a 61% chance that both teams will find the net.
Head to head: Goals on the agenda
These two sides have met 11 times since 2014, with Fulham coming out on top in just two of those encounters. At the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth hold the edge with a record of W3-D1-L1, conceding only three goals across Fulham’s five visits.
In the Premier League, things are more balanced. Bournemouth lead slightly with a record of W3-D2-L2, outscoring Fulham 13-9 overall. Recent meetings have tended to deliver entertainment—both teams have scored in four of the last five, with over 2.5 goals landing in all five. Bournemouth have netted at least twice in four of those, while Fulham have found the net in five of the last six.
Discipline and set-piece trends show Premier League matchups between these sides average 3.71 cards and 10.14 corners per game, with every one of the seven top-flight meetings featuring at least eight corners.
Players to watch: Illya Zabarnyi ready for the fight
Illya Zabarnyi is known for his composed and disciplined defending, and he has been a key figure at the heart of Bournemouth’s backline this season. With over six ball recoveries per game, he is reliable in possession and alert defensively. However, that doesn’t mean he is immune to picking up fouls—especially in the right matchup.
Since returning to the starting XI, Zabarnyi has committed one and two fouls in his last two appearances. His overall average sits at just 0.6 fouls per game, but notably, in the reverse fixture against Fulham, he gave away three—an indication that this particular battle might not suit him.
Rodrigo Muniz is expected to start again for Fulham after his standout display against Liverpool, and he has proven a real handful for defenders—drawing 2.80 fouls per 90 this season. If Raul Jimenez features, he is also a threat in that department, drawing 1.53 fouls per 90.
Given Fulham’s physical presence up top and Zabarnyi’s recent fouling trend, backing him to commit 1+ foul looks like a value play—especially with the matchup history and forward profiles taken into account.
Predicted line-ups
Both teams are likely to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation. Bournemouth are waiting on news of Marcus Tavernier and Justin Kluivert whilst Fulham are hoping that Harry Wilson can return from injury.
Bournemouth: Kepa; Smith, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez; Cook, Adams; Semenyo, Scott, Ouattara; Evanilson.
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Lukic; Sessegnon, Pereira, Iwobi; Muniz.
Anything else catch the eye?
Bournemouth’s recent dip in form has seen them become far more generous defensively, particularly when it comes to allowing shots. Ipswich managed 10 attempts despite leading for most of the game and sitting deep. Across the Premier League, Bournemouth have conceded an average of 12 shots per home game, with that number rising to 14 per game across their last five at the Vitality.
Fulham, meanwhile, average 12.93 shots per game away from home this season. That figure climbs to 13.4 when excluding tougher away trips to Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Forest, and Chelsea. In those more favourable matchups, they have hit 12+ shots in seven of 10.
With this game expected to be open and both sides likely to attack, there should be plenty of opportunities for Marco Silva’s men to rack up attempts. Backing Fulham over 11.5 shots looks well supported by the data, and even pushing it to over 12.5 at 2.4 could offer strong value.
This English Premier League match between Bournemouth and Fulham will be played on and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Bournemouth vs Fulham prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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