Botafogo meet Vasco da Gama for the third time in less than two months, but this time, the stakes include both teams' last chance to fight for a trophy this season.
Defending Serie A champions Botafogo have easily had the best 12 months in their 121 years of history. Not only did they win the championship in Brazil for the first time since 1995, but they also won their first-ever Copa Libertadores. In June, they took part in the Club World Cup, notably defeating PSG.
But last year's success did not translate into the new campaign, and Botafogo are left with one chance for a major trophy – Copa do Brasil – and they've never won the competition before. But their confidence should be high, especially after securing a draw in the 1st leg a couple of weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Vasco da Gama have bigger worries than their performance in the Cup, as the team is battling relegation once again. Gigante de Colina are tied in points with the teams in the drop zone, with their goal difference being the only positive.
The thing about Vasco this season is that they are among the strongest attacking sides in the league, but that defence… Their performance in the first leg was above average, and it could even be argued that they missed too many opportunities. And that's going to haunt them if Botafogo change gears in the rematch.
How the bookies view it: Expected home advantage
Bookmakers unanimously agree that Botafogo have a considerable advantage on all fronts and should be betting favourites. And the gap is quite significant, as you can pick Botafogo at 3/5 next to 17/4 for Vasco da Gama. The draw is available at 13/5.
Recent head to head: Tighter than you think
While Botafogo have found incredible success on almost all fronts in recent years, Vasco da Gama have been a fierce rival, who often disrupted their plans. In fact, both sides had four wins each in the last 10 H2Hs. This year alone, Vasco hosted three matches, winning one, then losing the second, before ending level two weeks ago. Overall, this match may not be as one-sided as bookmakers expect.
Players to watch: Telles for the goals, Barboza for the reckless aggression
Davide Ancelotti has used such a vast group of players this season that it's been hard for anyone to really put out a world-class season. But despite all the rotations, we have a couple of ideas ahead of this particular match. Firstly, watch out for Alex Telles, as his output has skyrocketed since Ancelotti took charge. The 32-year-old has contributed five goals in his last six appearances.
Alternatively, you can watch out for Alexander Barboza and eventually place a live bet for him to get booked. Expect to see more of his aggressive playstyle, especially if Botafogo get an early lead and get forced to defend more.
Probable line-ups
Botafogo: Neto, Telles, Barboza, Kaio, Vitinho, Martins, Freitas, Danilo, Savarino, Mastriani, Cabral
Vasco da Gama: Jardim, Piton, Freitas, Moura, Rodriguez, Estrella, Coutinho, Rayan, Jair, Gomez, Vegetti
Anything else catch the eye?
While both sides have produced several attractive matches in a row each, we expect fewer goals and more cards in this one. Most H2Hs in recent years failed to cover Over 2.5 goals, but we've seen dozens of bookings. Even the first leg last week featured six yellow cards, and this time, the stakes are truly high.
We definitely see Botafogo going through to the semis, but we don't recommend any of the goal markets. It could be a 1-0 or a 3-2, and we wouldn't be surprised either way. This is a rare case where betting on bookings is safer than betting on goals.
GambleAware