Aston Villa host Manchester City at Villa Park on Sunday in one of the standout fixtures of the Premier League weekend. Both sides arrive in improving form but for different reasons with Villa recovering from a poor start and City looking to reassert control after early inconsistencies on the road.
Unai Emery’s side began the season with a five-game winless run (D3 L2) but have since found their stride, winning their last three matches. They have also shown resilience when falling behind, winning their last two Premier League games after conceding first, including a 3-1 victory over Fulham. Emery’s in-game management continues to shine with only Pep Guardiola having more wins after conceding first since the Spaniard took charge in November 2022.
Villa’s underlying numbers remain solid but not spectacular. They rank 12th for xPTS (4.85 over the last four games) and are averaging just 0.88 xG while allowing 1.00 xGA per match. Defensively, though, set pieces have become a clear issue: five of the last seven goals they have conceded have come from dead-ball situations, including goals from corners in three straight league games.
Manchester City, meanwhile, have looked more like themselves recently. They rank sixth for xPTS over the last four games (7.12) with an xG of 1.29 and xGA of 0.76, the best defensive record in the division. Despite some absentees with Rodri and Abdukodir Khusanov are expected to remain side lined, Pep Guardiola’s team continue to control matches with authority, allowing few chances and creating enough to win efficiently.
City have won 31 Premier League games against Villa, scoring 101 goals in those fixtures. Villa, however, have taken encouragement from winning their last two home meetings. That record, combined with their improving resilience, ensures this game carries more intrigue than the odds might suggest.
How the bookies view it: City favourites
Aston Villa are priced at 17/5, which gives them an implied win probability of 22.7%, while the draw at 3/1 translates to around 25%. Manchester City are clear favourites at 17/20, implying a 54.8% chance of taking all three points.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is trading at 3/4 (around a 57% likelihood), and both teams to score is 8/11 (roughly 57.9%). The prices suggest the market expects goals at Villa Park but with City in control which is consistent with recent patterns between these two sides.
City’s matches have averaged just over 2.5 total goals per game this season, with their xG (1.29) and xGA (0.76) pointing toward efficient, structured performances rather than high-risk football. Villa’s recent data shows defensive progress but continued set-piece issues, hinting at a controlled City win rather than a chaotic contest.
Head to Head: City dominate
Manchester City have dominated this fixture over the last decade, winning 15 of the last 20 meetings in all competitions. Aston Villa have managed just three victories, with two draws completing the record. City’s goal difference across those games is emphatic at +32 (50 scored, 18 conceded), averaging 2.5 goals per game compared to Villa’s 0.9.
Recent results show a slight narrowing of the gap under Unai Emery, however. Villa beat City 2-1 at Villa Park in December 2024 and were competitive in a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad in April 2025. Before Emery’s arrival, City had won six of seven, including heavy victories such as 6-1 in 2020 and 4-0 in 2016.
Even with Villa’s improvement, the head-to-head record highlights the scale of City’s historical control averaging over 3.4 total goals per game across their last 20 clashes.
Players to watch: Cash in on Matty Cash
Matty Cash 2+ fouls is well supported by both historical and current data. When facing Manchester City, Cash’s record is remarkably consistent as he has made 3, 0, 2, and 2 fouls in his last four appearances against them and has been booked in all four. Those numbers reflect how much defensive traffic flows down his side whenever City attack through their left wing.
That threat remains just as strong this season. City’s left-sided rotation of Jeremy Doku, Savinho, and Phil Foden ensures that the opposition right-back is regularly isolated and forced into recovery challenges. Across City’s eight Premier League matches, right-backs have committed 13 fouls and been booked in five which is a clear pattern of sustained pressure.
Cash’s season profile fits perfectly. He’s started eight league games, making seven fouls, with at least one in six of those. Against sides that dominate the ball and attack directly, he’s much more active defensively, often stepping into risky tackles.
Given Villa’s tendency to press high before retreating into a compact block, Cash will be required to track both the winger and overlapping full-back repeatedly. The matchup with Doku in particular who is one of the league’s most explosive dribblers almost guarantees defensive duels.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen, Kamara, Onana, Guessand, Rogers, McGinn, Watkins
Manchester City (4-3-3): Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Ake, O’Reilly, Lewis, Savinho, Reijnders, Foden, Doku, Haaland
Anything else catch the eye?
Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong play at Villa Park, supported by data and recent trends for both clubs.
City have tightened up considerably in recent weeks. Their last four Premier League games show an average xGA of just 0.76 which is the best in the league and they have conceded only one big chance across that stretch. Even without Rodri, Guardiola’s side are dictating play, controlling territory, and limiting opponents to an average of 5.0 shots inside the box per game.
Villa, by contrast, continue to defend well in open play but remain vulnerable from set pieces. Five of their last seven goals conceded have come via dead-ball situations. While they’ve found a way to win recently, their attacking process still ranks modestly: 0.88 xG and just one big chance created in the last four matches, the lowest total in the Premier League.
City’s historical dominance also reinforces the angle. They have won 31 of their 47 Premier League meetings with Villa, scoring 101 goals more than against any side except Newcastle. However, City’s recent games have been controlled rather than chaotic; seven of their eight wins this season have come with under 4.5 total goals.
Villa’s home fixtures support the same pattern. Three of four this season have finished with three or fewer goals, with the exception of the 3-1 win over Fulham, another game decided by structure and moments rather than chaos.
Given City’s superior process who are sixth for xPTS over the last four games (7.12) compared to Villa’s 12th (4.85) a narrow, professional away victory looks the likeliest outcome.
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