Arsenal return to Premier League action on Sunday at the Emirates Stadium against Crystal Palace, live on Sky Sports, aiming to consolidate their position at the top of the table.
Mikel Arteta’s side have been near faultless domestically this season, combining strong underlying numbers with ruthless efficiency in front of goal. The Gunners have averaged 1.89 xG per match while allowing just 0.68 xGA, the best defensive process in the league. Their form at home has been particularly dominant with seven wins from eight when starting the day top of the table, scoring 28 goals and conceding only six in that stretch
There are, however, a few injury concerns. Gabriel Magalhaes is a doubt after limping off against Atletico Madrid, while Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, and Noni Madueke remain side lined. Despite those absences, Arsenal’s attacking rhythm has stayed strong through the creativity of Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze, and the cutting edge of Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres.
Crystal Palace arrive in mixed form but remain difficult to break down under Oliver Glasner. They have produced 1.80 xG per game over their last four matches and created 10 big chances in that span, yet defensive lapses have cost them points.
Palace have won just one of their last 14 league trips to Arsenal (D5 L8), their last victory coming in 2019. They sit second on xPTS over the last four games and the highest xG over the same period. They are also second for shots in the box over the sample and no side has created more big chances. This is a side in form.
The head-to-head history is heavily weighted in Arsenal’s favour five wins from the last six Premier League meetings though the 2-2 draw in this fixture last season serves as a reminder that Palace can still disrupt their rhythm if Arsenal lose control. Arteta’s side will expect to dominate possession and territory, but Palace’s pace in transition ensures this should be a watchable, competitive London derby.
How the bookies view it: Gunners favourites
Arsenal are firm favourites ahead of Sunday’s Premier League clash with Crystal Palace at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners are priced at 4/9, which gives them an implied win probability of around 69.2%, while the draw at 15/4 equates to roughly 21.1%. Crystal Palace are 79/10, suggesting just a 9.1% chance of an upset in north London.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 4/5, representing an implied probability of around 55.6%, while both teams to score is 1/1, equivalent to an even 50% chance. These prices indicate that bookmakers expect Arsenal to control the game but still see potential for goals at both ends.
That view aligns with recent trends. Arsenal’s home matches have averaged over three goals per game, and they have scored at least twice in three of the last five of their last eight home fixtures in all competitions. Palace, meanwhile, have seen over 2.5 goals in 75% of their away games this season, with their pressing and attacking transitions creating chances but also exposing their defence.
The markets clearly reflect the form book: Arsenal are heavily fancied to win, with goals expected in another lively Emirates fixture.
Head to Head: Arsenal strong against Eagles
Arsenal have long held the upper hand in this London rivalry, winning 10 of the last 20 meetings, drawing seven, and losing just three, with an aggregate score of 44–27 in their favour. That equates to an average goal difference of +0.85 per game, underlining Arsenal’s sustained superiority across recent years.
The Gunners have been especially dominant at the Emirates, with Palace’s only league win away to Arsenal coming back in April 2019, when Roy Hodgson’s side won 3-2. Since then, Arsenal have taken 13 points from the last 15 available at home in this fixture, including emphatic wins of 5-0, 4-1, and 2-0.
Recent history has been just as one-sided. Arsenal have scored 17 goals in their last five meetings across all competitions, including a 5-0 victory and a 5-1 win at Selhurst Park last December. Palace have managed to frustrate Arsenal on occasion, notably in the 2-2 draw last April, but on balance, the trend points clearly towards Arsenal dominance and goals whenever these sides meet.
Players to watch: Munoz to cause the Gunners issues
Daniel Munoz looks a strong bet to register at least one shot against Arsenal. The Crystal Palace wing-back has attempted a shot in seven of his eight Premier League games, with 11 efforts in total and five on target.
His licence to push forward from the right side is a key feature of Palace’s 3-4-3 setup, and his numbers back that up with 19 progressive carries and 19 shot-creating actions show how often he gets into advanced areas. He has now had at least one shot in his last five Premier League games.
Munoz averages 0.9 xG across the season, impressive for a defender, and he’s attempted at least one shot in each of his last five league matches. Against an Arsenal side likely to dominate the ball but leave space wide, his overlapping runs and confidence to shoot make him a realistic candidate to hit the 1+ shot line again.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori, Zubimendi, Rice, Saka, Martinelli, Eze, Gyokeres
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson, Richards, Lacroix, Guehi, Munoz, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell, Sarr, Pino, Mateta
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal’s home dominance and attacking metrics make the combination of Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals a strong betting angle for Sunday’s match. The Gunners have won five of their last six league meetings with Palace, scoring 17 goals in those games, and they have averaged 3.2 goals per match at the Emirates this season.
Their underlying data fully supports those results. Arsenal rank first in the Premier League for xPTS (19.0) and xGD (+10.2), averaging 1.89 xG for and 0.68 xGA per game. At home, this season they have scored 17 goals in six matches across all competitions. Across their last four league fixtures, they have created 11 big chances and averaged 14.8 shots per game, with 6.2 on target both strong indicators of sustained attacking threat.
Crystal Palace’s process away from home points to an open game rather than a shut-out. They have conceded 1.27 xGA per match, allowed 12 shots per game, and seen over 2.5 goals in 75% of their away fixtures this season. Their tendency to commit bodies forward under Glasner has improved their attack but left them more vulnerable in transition. Over the last eight games they have created the most big chances with a non-penalty xG of 1.80. They have enough about them to get on the score sheet.
Arsenal’s pace and movement in wide areas should exploit that space. Saka, Trossard, and Eze are all in form, while Rice’s advanced positioning has added another layer of creativity. Even if Gabriel misses out, Arsenal’s structure and control at home remain elite.
With Arsenal’s efficiency in front of goal and Palace’s willingness to attack, Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals is backed by both history and performance data. It’s a logical, well-supported bet for what should be a lively, attacking contest.
GambleAware