Alaves host Osasuna in a match that could have real implications at the top end of the table. While Alaves are now mathematically safe from relegation and sit 14th with little to play for, Osasuna still have plenty at stake. They currently sit ninth but can still qualify for the Europa League or the Conference League if they win and other results go their way. That gives Vicente Moreno’s side clear motivation heading into the final round.
Despite that, the game is still unlikely to be open or high scoring. Alaves have built their survival on solid defensive foundations, especially at home. They have kept seven clean sheets at Mendizorroza and rank fourth in La Liga for xGA at home. Offensively, though, they have struggled all season. Only five of their 18 home games have seen both teams score — the lowest rate in the division and they have failed to score in eight of them. They also rank 17th for home xG, and despite going unbeaten in their last three at home without conceding, they have only won three of their last 12.
Osasuna arrive in strong overall form with five wins from their last seven, but their away record remains a concern. They have won just twice on the road this season, and only once in their last 13 away games. No side has scored fewer away goals, and they have failed to score in eight of those matches. Defensively they have not been much better, ranking 13th for away xGA. Against bottom-half sides on the road, their record is W2-D7-L1, conceding in seven of those ten games.
How the bookies view it: A game of few goals
Alaves are priced at 27/10, making them the underdog at home, with the draw at 23/10 and Osasuna slight favourites at 121/100, while over 2.5 goals is 11/8—an implied chance of just 42 percent—highlighting expectations of a low-scoring match, backed up by Alaves having the lowest home both teams to score rate in the league and Osasuna scoring the fewest away goals
Head to head: Visitors on top
Alaves and Osasuna have met 16 times in recent years, with Osasuna holding a dominant record: nine wins, three draws, and just four victories for Alaves. Alaves have not beaten Osasuna since 2016, and the recent trend is particularly one-sided. Over the last 10 meetings, Osasuna have won eight and drawn two, with a combined score line of 15-6 in their favour. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on December 2024, which broke Osasuna’s run of five consecutive wins in the fixture all of which were with clean sheets.
Players to watch: Sanchez
Manu Sanchez has committed 54 fouls in 29 starts during this season, averaging around 1.86 fouls per start. He has committed at least one foul in 26 of those matches and has registered two or more fouls in 17, highlighting his consistent involvement in physical duels. Only five players in La Liga have committed more fouls than Sanchez this season, placing him sixth overall.
Predicted line-ups
Alaves defender Moussa Diarra is out with illness and is not expected to play, while Osasuna forward Enrique Barja is doubtful due to a strain.
Alaves (4-1-4-1): Sivera; Tenaglia, Garces, Mourino, Sanchez; Blanco; Vicente, Guridi, Guevara, Alena; García
Osasuna (4-2-3-1): Herrera; Areso, Boyomo, Catena, Cruz; Torro, Ibanez; Pena, Oroz, Zaragoza; Budimir
Anything else catch the eye?
This match between Alaves and Osasuna sets up well for a low-scoring outcome, making the under 2.25 goal line a strong betting option. Both sides struggle in front of goal and the underlying data backs it up: Alaves have averaged just 0.72 goals at home, with their matches averaging 1.61 total goals, while Osasuna average only 0.78 goals on the road, with 12 of their 18 away games finishing with two or fewer goals.
The xG numbers are equally telling. Alaves rank 17th for xG at home (1.165) but an impressive fourth for xGA (1.02), indicating a well-organised but blunt side. Osasuna rank 16th for xG away (1.01) and 13th for xGA (1.73), showing limited attacking threat and defensive vulnerability on the road.
The under 2.25 goal line offers protection in a game where chances may be few. If the match ends with two goals exactly, you receive a half win. If there is one goal or none, it’s a full win. Given both teams' scoring records, limited attacking xG, and Alaves having nothing to play for, this market offers good value in what should be a slow, cautious contest.
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