Bolivia host Chile in what will be the most important round of the whole cycle. La Verde need to win all three remaining games to even get to the inter-confederation play-off, while Chile's chances are far gone.
Oscar Villegas' side should feel confident ahead of this clash, having won the reverse fixture last September, which was also their first away win during World Cup qualifications in decades. La Verde sit four points below the play-off spot with nine to play for, including clashes with Colombia and Brazil in September. This means that winning the three points against Chile is a must. The team is unbeaten at home since late 2023, which should be a serious confidence booster.
On the other end, Chile need a similar outcome from the last three games but we can already tell that making up an eight-point deficit in three games is an almost impossible scenario. To succeed, Venezuela must lose all three of their matches too. Chile have been at the bottom of the table for a while now and have shown no signs of improvement since their last win in November.
How the bookies view it: La Verde with the advantage
Bookmakers expect Bolivia to make it back-to-back wins over Chile but still didn't give them an extreme betting advantage. You can pick the hosts at 3/5, the draw at 3/1, or Chile at 19/4.
Recent head to head: Bolivia ended the winless streak
Bolivia and Chile have met a bunch of times in recent years and the home side won almost every time. Chile actually have the short-term advantage with six wins to two in the last 10 H2Hs. However, Bolivia won the reverse fixture in September (2-1).
Players to watch: Miguelito needs help
Bolivia and Chile are among the lowest-scoring sides in the WC qualifiers, but there is one player who stands out. America MG's Miguelito took part in nine matches so far, scoring five goals – the most in Bolivia's squad. The 21-year-old rarely impresses for his club, but his performance for his country has been exceptional.
Probable line-ups
Bolivia: Viscarra, Roman, Haquin, Morales, Fernandez, Moreno, Villamil, Cuellar, Paniagua, Miguelito, Cruz
Chile: Cortes, Loyola, Maripan, Sierralta, Suazo, Altamirano, Echeverria, Pizarro, Cepeda, Sanchez, Osorio
Anything else catch the eye?
While Chile have only won twice in 15 rounds, Bolivia are the team with the worst defence in the qualis. La Verde have conceded 32 times in 15 games for an average of 2.13 goals per match. For comparison, Chile have “only” conceded 22.
We have to back the hosts again, although their performances suggest it will be a tight game. Bolivia have not won a match in six rounds, although they never lost at home during this period. And Chile have not scored in three games in a row, making it hard to expect much from them. But due to Bolivia's defensive problems, we expect some action. Six of the last 10 H2Hs covered the three-goal minimum and five featured goals on both ends. We expect to see another 2-1 in favour of the hosts.
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