The National League returns for a busy midweek schedule and there are three fixtures that stand out for punters. After a solid weekend where it was good to go 2/3 on the betting front, attention now turns to the midweek fixtures.
Southend continue to look one of the league’s most reliable sides defensively and face a trip to Wealdstone, where another controlled performance is expected. Aldershot, who remain the division’s great entertainers, head to Truro in what should be another game packed with chances at both ends. Forest Green, under Robbie Savage, travel to Morecambe with their promotion push gathering momentum thanks to a disciplined, well-drilled approach. Each of these games brings a different betting angle: Southend’s matches are typically tight affairs, overs in Aldershot’s high-scoring thrillers, and Forest Green’s habit of winning in low-scoring fashion. It’s a strong mix, and there looks to be value in all three.
Wealdstone vs Southend Utd
Southend head into their trip to Wealdstone with plenty of reasons to feel confident. Kevin Maher’s side have looked one of the most balanced teams in the National League so far, combining efficiency in front of goal with a defence that has been incredibly difficult to break down. They have conceded only two goals in their opening six games, the best defensive record in the division outside of Hartlepool, and have kept four clean sheets in that run.
What stands out most is their away form. Southend have won all three games on the road, scoring six times and conceding just once. Their xPTS numbers back this up, with seven expected points away from home, which is joint-best in the league. The contrast with Wealdstone is clear. The Stones have lost three of their last five games and remain inconsistent, particularly at the back where they have already shipped eight goals.
Wealdstone do play with attacking intent, but they often leave themselves exposed. Against a side as organised and ruthless as Southend, that is a major risk. Roots Hall may have seen tight, low-scoring matches so far, but on the road Southend are more expansive. With confidence flowing and a defence that travels well, they should be too strong for Wealdstone.
- Best Bet: Southend win at 17/20 with Bet365
Truro City vs Aldershot
Truro and Aldershot meet in what looks like one of the most likely goal-heavy fixtures of the midweek National League programme. Both sides have been involved in games with consistently high goal counts, and the data points strongly towards another open contest.
Truro have struggled defensively, conceding nine goals in their six matches at an average of 1.5 per game. At home they have looked especially vulnerable, giving up two goals in each of their last two outings. They have also failed to score in four of their six matches, but when they do find the net their games tend to open up, as seen in their 2-1 win earlier in the campaign. Their overall goals per match average sits at 2.17, which shows that while they are not prolific, their defensive issues ensure goals are never far away.
Aldershot are the complete opposite in terms of attacking output. They have scored 18 goals already, the highest in the division, with their matches averaging over five goals per game. They have also conceded 13, meaning their fixtures are chaotic, end-to-end affairs. Remarkably, all five of their last five games have gone over 2.5 goals, with four of them hitting over 3.5. With their firepower and tendency to leave space at the back, even a limited Truro side should contribute to the score line.
All signs point towards another high-scoring Aldershot game, with over 2.5 goals the standout pick.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals to score at 8/11 with Bet365
Morecambe vs Forest Green Rovers
Forest Green travel to Morecambe with Robbie Savage’s side looking every inch a promotion contender in the early weeks of the campaign. Savage has instilled real organisation and discipline, particularly at the back, where Forest Green have conceded only three goals in six matches. They have already kept three clean sheets and have yet to concede a single goal at home. On the road they remain hard to break down, averaging one goal conceded per game, which makes them one of the most reliable defences in the division.
Morecambe, by contrast, are struggling badly. They have scored just twice in their opening three matches and failed to find the net in two of those games. Their attack looks blunt, while defensively they have already shipped seven goals, including four in their only away outing. At home they have been slightly more competitive, but against a Forest Green side so well drilled under Savage, chances are expected to be limited.
The expected points data highlights the gulf between the two sides. Forest Green sit among the very best on those numbers, while Morecambe are rooted to the bottom. The odds reflect this gap, but it is unlikely to be a goal-fest. Forest Green’s matches have averaged only 2.33 goals per game, with all six staying under 4.5.
A solid, professional Forest Green win in a controlled, low-scoring game looks the likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Forest Green win & under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Betway
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