After landing three winners from three bets last weekend, attention turns to another strong National League slate.
At Glanford Park, Scunthorpe vs Aldershot looks made for goals. Scunthorpe have scored in every league game and create chances freely, while Aldershot’s matches average over four goals and they have yet to keep a clean sheet away.
At Roots Hall, Southend vs Brackley should be a more controlled contest. Southend rank top three for xG ratio and defensive xGA, while Brackley struggle in attack. A routine home win in a low-event game looks likely.
Finally, Tamworth vs Boston United brings together two sides heading in opposite directions. Tamworth’s home xG numbers are among the best in the league, while Boston’s away process is weak.
Three more data-driven bets, each with a clear angle.
Scunthorpe United vs Aldershot Town
Scunthorpe have turned Glanford Park into one of the division’s most reliable attacking venues. They sit fourth in the table with an unbeaten home record and have scored in every league game this season.
Their home process supports that consistency: 1.39 xG for and 1.29 xGA per match, with four of seven at home finishing over 2.5 goals. The Iron average more than 14 shots per game and create regular big chances, but they also allow plenty in transition.
That defensive looseness suits Aldershot perfectly. The visitors’ matches are among the most open in the National League, averaging 3.58 total xG and 4.07 goals per game. They have conceded 33 times in 15 matches and have not kept a clean sheet away and conceded two or more six of seven. At the same time, their attacking numbers are strong with 1.48 xG for per away game, 10 shots in the box and 5.13 shots on target.
Both teams rank inside the top eight for total shots and top six for shots on target per game, which makes this one of the most likely goal fixtures of the weekend. Scunthorpe’s front line has too much quality not to score, but Aldershot’s direct attacking style is more than capable of creating problems in return.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score at 4/5 with BOYLE sports
Southend United vs Brackley Town
Southend’s performances have consistently outstripped their league position. They sit seventh but rank top three for xPTS, top three for xG ratio (74.5%), and top two for defensive xGA at home (0.70). They control games well and concede few chances, reflected in their eight clean sheets from fourteen matches.
At Roots Hall, they have a record of W3-D3-L1, allowing just four goals in total. These seven home games average only 2.2 total xG, and five of those ended under 2.5. Brackley will make this competitive but lack attacking threat and they have scored just ten league goals in fourteen and average only 1.06 xG for away.
The visitors’ strength lies in their structure and shape rather than forward play, so they will likely defend deep and play for territory. Southend should dominate possession and territory but may have to be patient to break them down.
Given Southend’s defensive control and Brackley’s low-scoring profile, a routine but low-event home win looks the most probable outcome.
- Best Bet: Southend to Win & Under 4.5 Goals at 10/11 with Skybet
Tamworth vs Boston United
Tamworth’s home data remains some of the strongest in the division. Their home record is W3-D3-L1 at the Lamb Ground, producing a 71% xG ratio and conceding just 0.60 xGA per match at home, which is the best in the division. Their games are typically tight and tactical with only 17% have gone over 2.5 but they control territory better than almost anyone outside the top four.
Boston’s away form is poor. They have taken nine points from seven trips, scoring only nine goals and conceding 11. Their away xG profile of 0.86 for and 1.89 against highlights their issues. They struggle to progress the ball into dangerous areas and have been outshot in six consecutive away matches.
However, their two away victories have come at Gateshead and Aldershot who both sit in the bottom half whilst Gateshead are 24th for home xPTS.
Tamworth’s attack isn’t explosive but it’s reliable, with nine different scorers this season and strong set-piece numbers. They should have the balance and discipline to take advantage of Boston’s weaknesses while keeping the game at their preferred tempo.
A comfortable, low-scoring home win fits the data and the price.
- Best Bet: Tamworth win and under 4.5 goals at 6/5 with Skybet
Further Reading
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- Newcastle United vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips
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