This weekend’s National League slate offers three standout angles where form, data, and recent trends line up neatly.
Southend United, Rochdale, and Boreham Wood all look strong favourites to deliver, each combining reliable process with opponent vulnerabilities that make their price worth taking.
Southend head to a struggling Morecambe side who sit bottom of the table and have shipped goals at a remarkable rate, while Kevin Maher’s side continue to build momentum and look well placed to add another away win.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have turned Spotland into a fortress, pairing consistent attacking output with defensive control that makes a home victory over Yeovil the most likely outcome. And at Meadow Park, Boreham Wood’s balanced numbers and strong home record point to a solid, low-scoring success against an Eastleigh team that rarely threatens on the road.
All three games offer similar themes: reliable favourites with clear statistical superiority facing opponents short on confidence and production.
Each selection combines result and process with Southend to win with goals, Rochdale to win in a controlled game, and Boreham Wood to edge a tight home contes. All supported by the underlying metrics that have guided this column’s success so far this season.
Morecambe vs Southend Utd
Southend United look a strong bet to beat Morecambe, with both form and process pointing firmly in their favour. The hosts are in deep trouble, sitting bottom of the National League and defending at a level far below what is needed to stay up.
They have conceded 36 goals in just 12 matches and have allowed two or more goals in 10 of those games. Their defensive xG numbers are among the worst in the division, and they have struggled to keep matches competitive for long periods. At home, they have lost four of six, conceding 16 times.
Southend, meanwhile, are trending upwards. They sit inside the top eight on merit, backed by strong underlying data that ranks them near the top for xG ratio, shots in the box ratio, and big chances created.
They have scored at least two six of their 13 matches and average 1.5 goals per game across their last four away fixtures. Their forward line has found rhythm, and their second-half scoring pattern is consistent by averaging 1.17 goals after half-time away from home and scoring in the second half in all six of those matches.
Morecambe’s defensive record after the break is alarming. They have conceded 1.75 second-half goals per game, the highest in the league, and have shipped at least one second-half goal in 11 of 12 matches. They frequently lose control after the interval, which aligns perfectly with Southend’s scoring profile.
With that combination of a dominant away attack and a porous home defence, the best angle combines result and process: Southend to win, Southend over 1.5 goals, and Southend to score in the second half. All three bets are strongly supported by the data and recent form.
- Best Bet: Southend win, Southend over 1.5 goals & Southend over 0.5 2nd half goals at 5/6 with Bet365
Rochdale vs Yeovil
Rochdale’s home form and control of matches make them the clear favourites to beat Yeovil, and the balance of data points strongly towards a low-scoring home win. Dale have been the most consistent side in the division, sitting top of the table with 10 wins from 12 and an exceptional record at Spotland.
They have taken 21 of the last 24 points available and rank first in the league for home xG ratio, home goal ratio, and big-chance ratio. Their attack is productive without being reckless, averaging around two goals per home match, while defensively they’ve been superb, conceding just four times in six home games.
Yeovil have improved in patches, but their numbers away from home remain ordinary. They sit mid-table for away xG and have conceded in five of six away matches. They often struggle to create high-quality chances against well-organised sides and rarely turn games into open contests.
Their away xG average sits around 1.2 for and 1.3 against, which is typical of a side who keep things competitive but lack the cutting edge to trouble top teams.
Rochdale’s last eight matches have seen only one game finish above four total goals, and none of their home matches have reached five.
Their control of possession and compact shape restrict opponents to limited opportunities, while their scoring profile is consistent rather than explosive. Yeovil’s last five away games have produced an average of just 3.0 total goals, with only one going over 4.5.
The matchup therefore points clearly to a solid Rochdale victory without chaos. They should create the better chances, edge possession, and manage the game efficiently once ahead. The best bet reflects that balance: Rochdale to win and under 5 total goals, a combination supported by both teams’ underlying metrics and match patterns.
- Best Bet: Rochdale win & under 5 goals at 5/6 with Bet365
Boreham Wood vs Eastleigh
Boreham Wood look a reliable pick to take all three points against Eastleigh, with the numbers suggesting a controlled home performance and a low goal count. At Meadow Park, Boreham Wood have been efficient and defensively sound all season.
They rank inside the top five for home xPTS and xG ratio, generating around 1.5 expected goals per game while allowing less than one. They also sit among the division’s top sides for shots-on-target ratio and big-chance balance at home, creating over seven shots in the box per game while conceding fewer than five.
Defensively, they have kept things tight, recording clean sheets in two of their last four home matches and conceding only two goals in that run. Their results reflect their stability: five wins from seven at home, with every one of those victories finishing under 4.5 goals. The structure of their play underlines that pattern as they are compact off the ball, measured in transition, and rarely overexposed in defence.
Eastleigh, meanwhile, remain unpredictable. Their away record is poor, and their attacking output has been among the lowest in the league on the road, averaging just 0.79 xG and two shots on target per match.
They have failed to score in four of seven away fixtures and have produced an overall away xG ratio of just 36%, ranking in the bottom five. They tend to sit deep and limit damage rather than open games up, which should suit Boreham Wood’s controlled style.
With Boreham Wood strong at home and Eastleigh struggling to create chances away, the expectation is for Boreham Wood to dominate territory and edge the key moments. Their balance of steady attacking production and defensive discipline makes Boreham Wood to win and under 5 match goals an appealing combination that aligns with both clubs’ consistent statistical trends this season.
- Best Bet: Boreham Wood win & under 5 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
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