NFL Wildcard Sunday

The stress and chaos of my own team being once more involved in the postseason meant that I was a little tardy yesterday and didn't manage to get a post up. There wouldn't have been any tips from the Bengals game anyway, I had no idea how that was going to go. Fortunately for me, it ended in a win for the Bengals, their first playoff win in 31 years, ending the longest drought in the league. The torch now passes over to the Lions. The Bengals scraped to a 26-19 win.

The late game didn't end up as I expected either, of course, the Bills were the stronger team but with sub-zero temperatures in NY I wasn't expecting a high-scoring affair but the Bills sorted that one out quickly. The first time in NFL history that a team has gone through a game without a turnover, punt, interception, they scored a TD on all 7 of their drives to run out very comfortable winners 47-17 the final score in that one. A real marker to the AFC East for next season as well.

So that's the third and fourth seed through in the AFC, the Chiefs host the Steelers tonight in the remaining AFC game.

NFL Sunday

A few general notes for the playoffs;

• Don't back first-time QBs. Last night had Carr, Burrow and Jones as first-time playoff QBs.
• Don't back first-time head coaches. Sirianni tonight for the Eagles, Kingsbury tomorrow.
• The stronger regular-season schedule usually covers the spread (66%) – The Raiders let this trend down last night.

With limited choices and with the spread lines being as polished as they're ever going to get the usual format will be shaken up a little in my previews for tonight.

Eagles +7.5 @ Buccaneers

The weather has been the big talking point for this one all week, expected to be wet and windy in Tampa, however the most recent forecast after checking this morning is now suggesting it might not be as wet as first expected although 20mph winds could cause issues.

On the field, it should be a routine victory for the Bucs who match up well with the run-heavy game plan that the Eagles are likely to implement. They have players back on defense to add to their already strong run defense and if you stop the Eagles being able to run the ball then they don't have a whole lot.

They are the best running team in the league though and should have a full deck to choose from, Miles Sanders has run well all year without getting the TDs, Jordan Howard and Boston Scott have done well in relief and even the rookie Kenneth Gainwell has added bits too, but it's QB Jalen Hurts legs which open up the offense for the team. I would expect him to have a big game as they mix up their runners through the game.

The passing game isn't good for them, Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert the only real players of note in that aspect of the game. Smith has shown in flashes this year why he won the Heismann in college last season.

The Bucs have been hit with injuries on the offense though and were hoping to have “playoff Lenny” Fournette back to establish their run game, but he is still on the IR and won't be back for this one, although Gio Bernard did return.

Tom Brady is the best there is, but trying to do it with the likes of Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson instead of Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin isn't quite as easy. He does have old reliable on the field though and Rob Gronkowski will likely have a big role after his 137 yard performance last week. He and Mike Evans will be the main targets and frankly should be able to get the job done. Brady had formed a good connection with Cyril Grayson but he looks likely to miss out so I'm hoping that Scotty Miller comes back into the fray as the deep shot guy.

It may be a closer match-up than I, and others, first expected the Eagles are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball and try to keep the game in front of them, but the Bucs should have too much.

Best bet from this game; Rob Gronkowski o60.5 receiving yards; also like Scotty Miller o7.5 rec. yards and a long shot of 15/2 on him scoring at Skybet.

San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys

This one should be the game of the weekend as the 49ers come into Jerrah world to take on the Cowboys in a match that we saw seemingly every damn year in the 90s.

A quick note that this is the Nickelodeon game, so if you want a little variation on this game then watch it on Amazon Prime and you'll get a “kidified” version with virtual slime and added animations…

The 49ers got into the playoffs after an injury hit year had players in and out of the lineup but they should be near full strength coming into this one which is why most of the world seems to be picking them to be the upset of the wildcard round.

They have the better coach in this game and with Elijah Mitchell looking healthy should be able to run the ball as well as they have all season. He and Deebo Samuel have been able to pick up big yards every time they're on the field. Deebo Samuel has quickly become one of my favourite players in the league to watch, he's unstoppable if he gets the ball in space and the way they've used him on the ground and through the air this year has been sensational.

Brandon Aiyuk stepped up last week and had his best game of the season as the 49ers came back from a 17-0 half-time deficit. He and Jauan Jennings helped Jimmy Garoppolo prove that they can move the ball without needing to use George Kittle on every play. If they do need to use Kittle though he can do it, he's a beast.

It's been a weird year for the Cowboys they have all the talent on offense but have been up and down. They played most of their starters in a dead-rubber week 18 game against the Eagles to get some momentum going and putting up 50+ points with your QB throwing 5 TDs may aid them coming into this one.

They lost Michael Gallup a few weeks back but Cedric Wilson has stepped up well to go alongside Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb who are one of the best duos in the league. The run-game hasn't been stellar with Ezekiel Elliott looking a little sluggish but the odd play they hand the ball off to Tony Pollard usually moves the chains as a more explosive back at the moment. They are another team coming in at relative full strength having Blake Jarwin back to go alongside Dalton Schultz at TE.

Defensively they have the run-away rookie of the year in Micah Parsons, if they've got any sense they've use him to spy on Deebo Samuel and use his explosive power to try and keep him to a minimum.

Best bet in this one; I want a way of having some exposure to Cedric Wilson o3.5 receptions at 4/6, seems the most sensible method; Jamycal Hasty o9.5 rec. yards – Had this in 8 out of 10 starts.

Steelers +12.5 @ Chiefs

The Steelers getting into the playoffs is one of the more absurd things that's happened in the NFL in recent years. They are not a very good team at the moment but they got in and anything could happen going forward.

Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old. Very old, he's ranked 25th in QBR and that seems generous. Every week he throws up a dolly to be intercepted and most weeks it gets dropped by the defense, but that's where he is at the moment, it's either dump-offs to Najee Harris in the backfield or lobbing it to Diontae Johnson.

Najee Harris comes into this one after missing a chunk of last week with injury, he won't be 100% but this is probably their last game for 6 months so they'll run probably get him 25+ touches. He's done as well as could be expected behind a sieve of an offensive line which has hurt the team all season.

Diontae Johnson will lead the team in targets, they could really do with Chase Claypool using his phsyical traits to do something in a football game again after he burst on to the scene last year. One brightspot for them this year has been rookie TE Pat Friermuth who's had a good season in the middle of the field for them.

The defense has been the key for them in these recent wins and TJ Watt looks like he'll finally win defensive player of the year after tying the regular-season sack record. He's a phenom and even though I hate the team I can't help but appreciate his work.

The Chiefs aren't an easy team to judge week to week either but they won their division again after a rough start and look more rounded than they have done in recent years with the defense and offense winning games by themselves. They have had to move the ball around more than previously too with Tyreek Hill suffering from a few knocks this year. Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have had to stand up and they have done. Travis Kelce is a top 3 tight end still and I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple of scores from him.

The run-game will likely be Darrel Williams who comes in with a rib injury but with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ruled out he will have to play through the pain. If he does go down then last week it was Jerrick McKinnon who got a bigger role with Derek Gore behind him.

There's not a whole lot more to say about the Chiefs which hasn't been said. They're good. The Steelers aren't.

Best Bet for this one is a derivative; The Chiefs -7.5 on the 1st half spread. The last month of the season the Steelers averaged 4 points per first half. I wouldn't be shocked if the Chiefs covered the first quarter by 7.5 points in fairness, but I'll take Even money on this instead. I also like Ben Roethlisberger to throw an Interception at 4/6-ish They'll probably be trailing by a lot and with it being his last game he's just going to keep throwing and give chances for picks.

Cardinals +3.5 @ Rams

The first Monday night playoff game sees another divisional re-match with the Cards taking on the Rams for the 3rd time this season. They split the regular season with the Rams winning the most recent game between the two in December.

The Cardinals got off to a 7-1 start to the season before falling apart in the second half and finishing the season with 5 losses in their final 8 games. The good news for them is that they were 8-1 on the road and that's the situation in this one.

Kyler Murray is electric and if things go well can take the game away from the opposition but without Deandre Hopkins in the passing game that's proven difficult for them. When you're relying on AJ Green to be your WR1 in 2022 you might not be in the best of shape. Green has had a decent enough season and Christian Kirk has done well as the deep shot, but it's been tough for them recently. Antoine Wesley is one I've been keeping an eye on as a redzone threat for them due to his height.

The run game has been the key for them and James Conner is expected to be a game-time decision. He's scored 18 total TDs this season so having him starting would be beneficial. If not it will be a banged-up Chase Edmonds getting the ball, either way they won't have a full-strength player there. So it may well be Kyler Murray with more rushing in this one. When the playoffs come your best players have to step up.

The Rams haven't been clean down the stretch either, a loss to the 49ers last week could have cost them the division title, but they managed to win it and take the 4th seed in the NFC.

Matthew Stafford started the season well but has now thrown 8 interceptions in his last 4 games. He's got all the talent but seems to be making terrible decisions of late and most of them seem to be throwing deep shots towards Odell Beckham no matter how well covered he is. The key to them for this game is Stafford keeping it clean and not turning the ball over.

There's no need to throw the ball to anyone other than offensive player of the year (in waiting) Cooper Kupp who led the league in every stat for wide receivers this year. His ability to get open is astounding and he should just get the ball on every play really. Van Jefferson and Beckham add more talent for Stafford and TE Tyler Higbee scored a couple of times last week and has been more involved recently as well.

The run-game will likely go through Sony Michel for the most part but Cam Akers returned for a run out last week and could be more involved after proving his health after an Achilles injury just a few months ago.

Aaron Donald is the best in the game and should be able to get pressure up the middle. He's unstoppable.

Best bet for me here will be Kyler Murray o38.5 rush yards, and the longshot will be Antoine Wesley at 5/1 (Bet365)

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