We're in to double-digits in the NFL season as time continues to fly by, this week sees the first NFL game in Germany as the Seahawks take on the Buccaneers, two of the better-supported teams in Deutschland. There wouldn't be too many people who would have thought that the Seahawks would have had the better record coming into this one as they sit at 6-3 atop the NFC West while the Buccaneers are down at 4-5, although still somehow managing to top their division as the NFC South stinks this year.
The Bucs are -2.5 point favourites which must be due in most part to the names on their roster as they haven't been able to get clicking this year, Tom Brady is obviously the most experienced player in the league and has done this trip a number of times so he knows what to do on these extended travel weeks. The connection between him, Evans, Godwin and the rest of his star-studded pass-catching group hasn't been strong and the running game for them has been non-existent. The rumours this week are that rookie Rachaad White will get more touches as they look for something to spark their ground attack.
The Seahawks have been very good this year, with Geno Smith firmly in the lead for comeback player of the year sitting top 5 in PFF ranking for QBs, a quite remarkable achievement after years in the wilderness for him. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are a very good duo for him and have shown up in big spots while the tight ends have had a fair bit of usage as well. Unlike the Bucs the Seahawks have had the advantage fo a very good run game with Kenneth Walker stepping in perfectly after Rashaad Penny went down with injury. He's scored in each of their last 5 games with 2 in 2 of them and he's topped 100 yards on the ground in the last two they've played.
Despite everything that's gone on this season I still find it tough to take the Seahawks here, but I don't want to take the Bucs either. It will probably be relatively low-scoring but I do like Kenneth Walker to score at 13/10 at William Hill. Cade Otton is another to have a nose at, at a longer price, the rookie TE is 6/1, also at Hills for the Bucs, it's a good matchup for the position.
Best Spread
Cowboys -4 @ Packers
All the talk of the Packers is that it will finally click, Rodgers will show up in a big spot, he'll do something just to annoy everyone… maybe, but maybe he's just taking his paycheck and doing the minimum he can. The interceptions he threw last week were something that Zach Wilson would have been ashamed of. He doesn't have much helping him out in fairness, with the run game stuttering the lack of talent in the WR corps a significant issue this season. They will have Aaron Jones playing at least despite leaving last weeks game through injury.
The Cowboys come off their bye week after a high-scoring win against the Bears the last time they played, Tony Pollard ran for 131 yards and 3 TDs on 14 carries in that one and it looks like he'll be the lead back again here with Zeke seemingly missing out once more, Dak Prescott had a fine game with Ceedee Lamb finding the endzone for him and Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup rounding out the leading pass catcher for him as you'd expect.
The Cowboys should have far too much for the Packers here, the only worry is the Mike McCarthy revenge game biting him in the ass as he's not a very good coach. Maybe Rodgers will want to rub it in on him.
Best Total
Browns v Dolphins u49.5
I've been bitten by the Dolphins a few times this season getting on the wrong side of their apparently huge variance, but the fact that I think the Browns will be a very run-heavy team against a decent Dolphins run defense here means that plays should be kept to a relative minimum and if Jacoby Brissett is forced to chase the game I don't think they'll be able to do it.
The worry for me on this is Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can put up big points from nothing, but that's something I'm going to have to hope the Browns manage to hold down for the most part in what is expected to be a quite toasty Hard Rock Stadium.
Best TD Scorer
Alvin Kamara 11/10 (Will Hill)
It is not an easy week for anything when it comes to betting and I'm even struggling for a decent anytime TD scorer, I've landed on Kamara as the Saints will have to rely on him once more with Mark Ingram missing out on the ground. Andy Dalton has shown he can find his players and Chris Olave has stepped up well, it looks like Jarvis Landry will finally return for them as well. They go up against a Steelers defense which welcomes back TJ Watt s0 they will be able to get pressure on Andy Dalton again, something he had a lot in his time at the Bengals. – That pressure should mean shorter passes to Kamara and a lot more of the ball for him.
I do like Kenneth Walker in the early game and I think the 13/10 is over-priced on him
Best Player Prop
Justin Fields o59.5 rush yards
I ignored this bet last week and went for the RBs instead but it was Fields putting up record numbers for a QB as he finished with 178 against the Dolphins, he's topped this line in the last 4 games they've played and up against a Lions defense which has allowed a lot of runs to opposing QBs I think he'll have another big game here.
Good luck if you're betting today, and enjoy the games.
