It's the Conference Championship games in the NFL this weekend, essentially the semi-finals before two teams fight for the Lombardi trophy in New Orleans in two weeks.
Will we get a rematch of the Eagles and Chiefs from two years ago, or will we have history with the first rookie QB ever to make the big game, or can the Bills lift the trophy for the first time in their history?
The #1 and #2 seeds face each other in the AFC where it's the Bills vs Chiefs, a re-match from earlier in the year where the Bills won. While in the NFC it's an NFC East clash with the Commanders taking on the Eagles, two teams who are also familiar with each other, so there shouldn't be surprises for any team involved in the action on Saturday night.
Commanders +6.5 @ Eagles: 47.5
These teams faced each other twice in the regular season, with each team winning a game, although the Commander's win at home came with Eagles' QB Jalen Hurts leaving the game while his team were driving to go 14 points ahead, so there is an asterisk over that for me.
The main thing to watch is Jalen Hurts's health, which hasn't looked quite right since returning from the concussion he suffered a month ago. He looked sluggish in the pocket last weekend and added a knee injury to his list of ailments when getting tackled from behind, which has looked like it will hamper him from training videos this week. His mobility is important for the Eagles offense so they'll hope he is good to go on Sunday evening.
The key man for the Eagles, though, is Saquon Barkle,y who was responsible for their win last week with 205 yards on the ground and two TDs against the Rams from 26 carries. I think it's safe to say they'll use him as much as possible as they did in the regular season games between these two where he had nearly 300 yards combined and two TDs in each of them.
He'll also be involved through the air so I'll be looking at his receiving props again this week after getting a winner on those last week.
Commanders vs Eagles: Passing game key
The passing game is shallow for the Eagles with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert the only real options for them. Last week, Goedert led the team in yards as the shorter option for his quarterback, and that will likely be a spot they target this week.
Smith is rather hit-or-miss as is AJ Brown at this moment in time, however, the big man gets a good matchup here, especially if Washington sell-out to stop the run as may well be the case. Brown uses his size to dominate opponents and does well against one-on-one coverage.
The Washington Commanders weren't expected to be here after finishing bottom of their division last year but rookie Jayden Daniels has changed this franchise for the better and could be the first rookie QB to make the Super Bowl. He uses his accuracy and mobility to get the job done and that makes him a very tough player to stop. He has been good all season but has picked it up even more in the playoffs, so there's obviously nothing he fears.
The run game for the Commanders worked well last week but will face a tougher challenge this weekend. Brian Robinson should get double-digit carries, Daniels will take off and use his explosivity and Austin Ekeler will add some yards as well on 3rd downs as the more explosive back on the field. It's a good attack with a few options and it's been working well for them this season, much like Barkley above, I'll be looking at Ekeler receiving props.
Terry McLaurin has shown how good he is, finishing second in touchdowns on the season and he's scored in both of their playoff games with over 80 yards in each, he should be the main target in this one, but I think he'll get covered by Darius Slay which won't be an easy job for him.
That should open up things for their 2/3 WR, which now seems to be Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheus. Brown has appeared in the playoffs with 89 and 98 yards in the two games, so I'll be taking his o42.5 receiving yards against softer coverage, and Zaccheus scored twice the last time these two teams faced each other.
Jamison Crowder's one good game of the year came the last time these played as well, so he could pop up. Tight end Zach Ertz has had a good season and gets a good matchup here with injuries hurting the Eagles, Tyler Higbee had a very good game for the Rams last weekend.
This should be a close game so I'll be taking the Commanders +6.5, I won't be attacking the total, hopefully it will be a fun game.
Commanders vs Eagles best bet
My best bet in this game is Saquon Barkley o2.5 receptions – 6/5 (I like his yards too at 12.5, but will take the plus money odds instead, and I also like Austin Ekeler o46.5 rushing and receiving yards – 5/6 you can also get some nice odds on extra receptions for Ekeler and Barkley – 11/10 for 4+ for Ekeler and a lovely 4/1 for 4+ for Barkley.
Our friends at Boylesports are also offering a 25% boost on winnings this weekend, making combining some of these even more enticing.
Bills +2.5 @ Chiefs: 47.5
These teams met in the regular season, with the Bills bringing home the win, getting the QBs to a 4-4 record, but when the games really count, Josh Allen hasn't pulled his team to victory yet, losing four times against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen might be the season MVP this year, and he has been fantastic, but he needs to get the job done where it counts, and he's got a good chance this weekend.
Allen has been superb this year and possesses all the physical traits you need in the modern NFL. He has a huge arm, good accuracy, and can run better than most in the league. If he gets the monkey off his back here and gets a victory over the Chiefs, I think they'll go on and win the Super Bowl, but can he do it?
He seems more mature this season and the win in the regular season was sealed when he ran in from 26 yards on 4th down.
The run game has been key for the Bills this year, with Allen and James Cook leading the attack there, Cook had a couple of rushing TDs in the first game between these two and added his 17th rushing TD in the playoffs, the Chiefs run defence is good but Cook and Allen should find a way to break through at least once.
They've also got good support in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson who add different looks with Davis a bulldozer and Johnson the more mobile back.
Bills vs Chiefs: Shakir the key man
The passing game is varied, which greatly helps as teams can't just try and take away one player. The main man has been Khlalil Shakir this year and that's proven in the playoffs as well, he had 8 for 70 yards in the regular season game and has six receptions in each playoff games so far as well as he helps move the ball 10 yards at a time.
Outside of him, it's more blurry, they have Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman for bigger plays, Mack Hollins will use his speed once or twice a game to get downfield, but it's Dalton Kincaid who should step up in this situation in the middle of the field and endzone, as the main target when in scoring positions.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't been dominant this season but stepped things up at the end of the year and, despite losing the yardage battle, won comfortably last weekend against the Texans, mainly due to having the best QB in the game in Patrick Mahomes. His stats don't jump off the page this year, but he is very tough to bring down and can make any throw that's needed.
He hasn't rushed much this year but I think he'll top his 3.5 line on carries in this one, the most important game of the season for his team.
The run game has become difficult for bettors as Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco share carries, it looks like they're leaning slightly towards Hunt at the moment but I won't be having any part of it. They might even mix in Samaje Perine for a few catches if they get slowed down, he could be worth a silly little punt for a touchdown.
Travis Kelce has had a poor year by his standards but always comes back when it matters, and he led the team last week with 117 of his QBs, 177 yards, and a touchdown from seven receptions. He'll be the main man again and teams don't ever seem to be able to stop him, so I'll be expecting another good showing from him.
Behind him it's a little more complicated, they have been trying to get Xavier Worthy involved with his speed, he may well get a carry or two in this one, Marquise Brown is talented and Deandre Hopkins adds experience, but none seem too reliable on a weekly basis.
This should be another close game, probably decided by whichever team gets the ball at the end of the game. The Bills have been more impressive on the season, but the Chiefs defence has shown up as one of the best in the league and I can't trust Josh Allen in the playoffs, so I'll be taking the Chiefs to win and probably under on the total, but that one is a little dicier.
Bills vs Chiefs best bet
My best bet though is Josh Allen to score a TD – 10/11, he'll get the goal-line work and he seems to be carrying the team this year, I also like o9.5 rush attempts for him – 10/11, I think he'll be a man possessed here.
Khalil Shakir is the man I'd look for in the Bills receiving corps, but I'll have a stab on Xavier Worthy o3.5 rushing yards – 5/6. He's had at least one carry against every team outside of the AFC West this season, including 1 for 7 yards against the Bills in their regular season game.
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