Inter Milan v Lazio
I can’t remember a set of Serie A fixtures quite as unappetising as this midweek round. That means stakes will be at a minimum as, to a certain extent, will interest. There aren’t too many Serie A issues to be decided now and eyes are starting to look towards that Rome derby Coppa Italia final which will at least give the season a spectacular send-off.
Andrea Stramaccioni’s Inter surely can’t wait to see the season end. Inter could have been managed better but their injury crisis has now become almost comical. Tommaso Rocchi’s knock against Napoli meaning they ended that match without a fit striker.
He is likely to return here and even Antonio Cassano could be on the bench so normality might just be resuming just as the season reaches its end. That tends to be the way of things with Inter.
I’m not at all surprised to see Lazio trading as favourites – they are fresh from a 6-0 win over Bologna when Miroslav Klose was in sensational form with five goals but 2.54 for the away win looks a bit skinny. Inter are in poor form but played relatively well in Naples and Lazio looked so poor in the matches prior to that Bologna game I couldn’t have any faith in them at such a short price.
Inter won’t exactly be chasing down Udinese for that final Europa League spot as the club will be happy to concentrate on the league next season but there’s still a sense of pride around San Siro and the players won’t want to be remembered as the team that lost more games in a single campaign than any other Inter side. That’s what will happen should they lose once more this season.
Lazio still have two routes into the Europa League, via Serie A or the Cup Final, and Vladimir Petkovic’s team deserves at least that honour although it’s European involvement which has hurt them this season. The Europa League has really taken its toll. It robbed them for a while of Klose and we were reminded at the weekend just how important he is to them.
I think there will be goals at San Siro but for a side that can be so dour away from home (Lazio have only one goal in their last six away) I’m not interested in the idea of over 2.5 goals at a price of 1.82.
By process of elimination and in the interest of value I will have a small bet on Inter for the first time this season. I know they are frustrating and have been overrated for much of this season but a price of 3.0 for a home win against an equally inconsistent side is a little insulting. Inter have won their last seven home games against Lazio and I’ll be cautiously supporting them to make it eight in a row.
Recommended Bet
Back Inter to beat Lazio @ 3.0
Elsewhere, I think Juventus could be a little overpriced to win in Bergamo against Atalanta at 2.22 but I haven’t been privvy to just how hard they’ve been celebrating their Serie A win and so I’ll swerve them.
Milan are a near certainty to win in Pescara but are also prohibitively short at 1.18. The draw in Torino against Genoa is currently trading at 1.84 which tells you pretty much everything about what will happen there and even I’d normally fancy Bologna at home against Napoli at a price as big as 5.3 I’m never ever backing Bologna again after their disgraceful display at the Olimpico on Sunday.
I’d also normally like the idea of Catania winning at Sampdoria at 4.9 but they have so little to play for I can’t be sure of their motivation either. So you see what I mean. Not the most appetising set of fixtures from a punting point of view. However, we can have an interest in another game.
Siena v Fiorentina
I was cursing myself for tipping the draw rather than the Roma win against Fiorentina on Saturday night. I felt sure Roma would out-perform their price but didn’t quite have the conviction they’d win. I was right until Pablo Osvaldo scored in the last minute.
This week Fiorentina play the Tuscan derby against Siena knowing they really must win to keep their chances of finishing fourth on track. I think that third place has pretty much gone but Vincenzo Montella will want as high a finish as possible as reward for the excellent season that La Viola have enjoyed.
Fiorentina are 1.71 for the win on Wednesday night and given the way both teams have been playing lately I think that’s more than a fair price. Siena have failed to win any of their last four home games and have failed to score in each of those games. They’ve lost their last three without scoring and bear in mind Fiorentina have scored in 10 of their last 11 games and won three of their last four away games. They suffered a blip against Roma but it hasn’t suddenly made them a poor side.
Fiorentina have a suffocatingly good record against their Tuscan rivals and should extend it here despite a couple of absentees. Fiorentina are simply a class above and will make that tell.
If you’re worried about a local derby atmosphere unsettling the visitors then don’t. Siena’s ground has a strange, temporary feel to it, and the feeling of the crowd is a long way from oppressive in a parkland setting. And this should be a walk in the parkland for the team in purple.
Recommended Bet
Back Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.71
In December 2020 we sadly 
GOLF
*****
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, where the world’s best will be attempting to win the year’s ‘fifth major’…
Tournament History
Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the event used to be staged in March but was moved to May in 2007. Universally known as the games ‘fifth major’, a top-class field always assembles at TPC Sawgrass and this year is no exception. The PGA Tour website describes this week’s line-up as the deepest, strongest field in golf and it’s impossible to argue against them. This will be the 40th staging of The Players Championship.
Venue
TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Course Details
Par 72 -7,215 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 72.47
Constructed in 1980, specifically for the purpose of hosting this event, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has been the tournament’s venue since 1982. It’s yet another Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design and it’s one of the most renowned courses in the world. The par 3 17th, with its dramatic island green, is one of the most recognised holes in golf.
Described as a balanced course, with doglegged holes going both ways and holes routed so that no two consecutive ever play in the same direction, it’s a true test that doesn’t tend to favour any one type of player, though accurate iron-play and tip-top scrambling is usually the key to success.
In 2006, just before the event moved to it’s now regular May date, all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation, and sub-air systems were installed. The result being that the firmness of the, smaller than average sized, greens can be controlled in any weather conditions.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 6.00pm on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Matt Kuchar -13
2011 – K.J Choi -13 (playoff)
2010 – Tim Clark -16
2009 – Henrik Stenson -12
2008 -Sergio Garcia -5 (playoff)
What will it take to win The Players Championship?
The odd big-hitter has obliged but driving distance is pretty much unimportant. Nine of the last 13 winners ranked in the top ten for Greens In Regulation and Sergio Garcia and last year’s victor, Matt Kuchar, are the only winners in the last eight years to rank outside the top-ten for Scrambling.
Is there an angle in?
Plenty of course experience certainly helps and getting to know the gaff looks key. When Henrik Stenson took the title in 2009, he was playing in the event for just the fourth time but he’s the only Players champ in the last seven years to have previously played Sawgrass less than seven times prior to winning.
The chances are we’ll see another new winner of the event – in the last 20 years there have been 20 different winners. Jack Nicklaus is the only man to win The Players three times and Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Davis Love III and Hall Sutton are the only men to win it twice. And don’t back Matt Kuchar – nobody has ever defended.
Don’t be afraid to back an outsider – the list of past champions contains plenty of shock winners. I can’t imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and although I have fond memories of backing Stephen Ames in 2006, he went off at 170.0.
Is there an identikit winner?
I would certainly favour the older, experienced players with an accurate approach game over the younger aggressive types. The wily old vet that knows how to plot his way around is just as likely to contend as any of the young guns. Fred Funk won here in 2005 and the likes of Paul Goydos, Kenny Perry and David Toms have all come close to winning recently. But in truth, all sorts of players have won here and finding a single type of player to prosper is hard.
In-Play Tactics
Being up on the pace from early on is certainly preferable. In the last ten years, only Stephen Ames and K.J Choi have won from outside the top-20 after day one. Between 2004 and 2008, that necessity for a fast start was advertised most strongly, with Adam Scot, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia all going on to win having led the field after round one. And Fred Funk, the 2005 champ, had been second after the first day.
Third round leaders are worth opposing though – the last six have all failed to convert.
Romilly Evans highlights here how starting out on the 10th hole could prove advantageous and he also describes the pivotal finishing holes superbly too.
Market Leaders
Tiger Woods reserves all his best golf for the same venues nowadays but unfortunately for favourite backers, Sawgrass isn’t one of them.
In 14 starts, he’s won just once and he has an average finishing position of 25th. That’s perfectly respectable form of course but when you consider he’s been the best player on the planet, and by some margin, over much of the last 15 years and that it’s safe to assume he’s pitched up here on numerous occasions in his absolute pomp, then taking a single-figure price about him this week holds no appeal.
Adam Scot and Rory McIlroy are vying for second favouritism and if I had to pick one it would be the latter. Scott, winner here in 2004, is making his first appearance since his dramatic US Masters playoff triumph and winning back-to-back is always tough, especially when you’re attempting to back-up a major! The media will no doubt be all over him this week and although I expect a big upturn in the Aussie’s fortunes now that he’s won a major, I don’t expect it to be immediate.
McIlroy’s record here is poor to say the least. Causing much ado, he swerved the event in 2011 and he’s only played here three times. He’s never made the cut, he’s never broken par and he claims not to have gotten to grips with the place yet but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see that change this week. Rickie Fowler finished runner-up last year after a couple of missed cuts, so it can be done if you’re classy enough and Rory’s game was in tip-top order at Quail Hollow last week.
Selections
Luke Donald isn’t a terrific price this week but he ticks all the right boxes so boldly that I felt he had to be backed and I’ll be quite disappointed if he doesn’t contend.
With ten Sawgrass starts already in the bag, he has plenty of vital course experience and his course form’s not bad either. Runner-up behind Funk in 2005, Luke also finished 4th in 2011 and 6th last year. He has an impressive record in Florida, where he’s won twice recently and where he’s finished inside the top-six in eight of his last 11 starts and he was third last time out, in the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head – another Pete Dye design.
I was more than happy to take 30.0 about 2007 champ, Phil Mickelson, whose putting at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, on greens most were struggling with, was quite simply sensational. He made 39 consecutive putts inside ten feet at one stage and unsurprisingly topped the Putting Average stats for the week.
He snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with bogeys on two of the last three holes on Sunday but he’s just the sort of character to put that behind him immediately and bounce right back the following week. He comes here in fine form, has plenty of Sawgrass experience and at odds of 30.0, I fancy he’s slightly overlooked.
My third and final selection is Ben Crane, who also has bags of Sawgrass form to call on. After running up a sequence of finishes here reading 6-5-4, he’s been a bit disappointing in the each of the last two renewals (tied 45th in 2011 and a missed cut in 2012) but he could very easily find his Sawgrass swing again this time around and I thought he was well worth backing at 140.0.
Pre-Event Selections:
Luke Donald @ 24.0
Phil Mickelson @ 30.0
Ben Crane @ 140.0
Back to LAY SHOTS
******************
You won’t get many better opportunities on the golfing calendar to make money trading outsiders than the Players Championship. It isn’t so much that it regularly produces freak winners, though we’ve had three in triple-figures this century. Rather, the great thing about Sawgrass is that leaderboards change fast, often meaning many more players than usual get into contention and shorten markedly in the betting. It is not unheard of for a dozen different players to hold weekend favouritism at some stage.
It also helps that an elite field at the ‘Fifth Major’ means no shortage of quality available within our price range. My plan, therefore, is to back a trio of players all at well above 200.0, with a view to laying back for a sizeable profit should any of them hit the relatively unambitious target of 20.0.
First up a man who traded well below that mark in no lesser contest than the Masters on his penultimate start. Marc Leishman was mightily impressive at Augusta, standing his ground in contention for all four days, and maintained his good form with a top-ten the following week at Harbour Town. That marked improvement makes it easy to ignore three previous failures at Sawgrass, a course that takes plenty of learning.
Accurate driving is a pre-requisite for success around hazard-strewn Sawgrass, which leads me towards 280.0 chance John Huh, who has been hitting a high percentage of fairways lately. 11th on his penultimate start at the Masters was outstanding and last year’s Sawgrass debut was promising, fighting back from an opening 75 to make the top-25.
Finally, despite lacking any course form to recommend, Mark Wilson is simply too big to ignore at 400.0 after finishing third and ninth on his last two starts. Four PGA Tour victories is an outstanding for a player of Wilson’s calibre. All came at huge odds and there were no obvious course form clues available beforehand. In short, he’s precisely the type of rank outsider worth throwing a few pennies at, because he knows how to win.
Recommended bets
Back Marc Leishman 2u @ 220.0
Back John Huh 1.5u @ 280.0
Back Mark Wilson 1u @ 400.0
*****************************
first day 3 ball tips
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Experience is key at TPC Sawgrass and recent Masters winner Adam Scott has it in abundance. The Australian fulfilled his potential in devastating fashion at Augusta. With that confidence boost it would be no surprise to see him put in a strong performance this week at a venue where he became the youngest winner of the Players Championship in 2004 (at 23 years old). Scott tees off in the first round with Rory McIlroy, who says Sawgrass doesn’t suit him and Steve Stricker who may be the danger at a big price.
Tim Clark is another former Players champion and is perhaps a worthy favourite for his three-ball. However, Kevin Streelman has been in superb form this season and he too has some good rounds at the Players on his CV. The American rates the bet at a nice price. D A Points makes up the trio – in three appearances here his form figures read M/M/WD.
Boo Weekley has bounced back to form with a bang this year and in a weak three-ball stands out as a strong pick against first round opponents Andres Romero, who is again struggling for form, and David Lingmerth who is making his debut in this event. Weekley was 21st here in 2008 when last in this kind of form.
Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months. The American’s form figures at Sawgrass are at least as good as three-ball favourite Lee Westwood’s, if not better. Ian Poulter makes up the trio, the Englishman has some fine rounds here to his name but has been struggling for form this year.
Recommended Bets
Back Adam Scott @ 2.4
Back Kevin Streelman @ 2.75
Back Boo Weekley @ 1.9
Back Nick Watney @ 2.7
Milesey
PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS
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LIVE ON SKY SPORTS
Premier League Darts
Week 14 from Newcastle
7pm, Thu, Sky Sports 3 HD
At the beginning of the Premier League season I think 99 people out of 100 would have expected to see Michael van Gerwen, Raymond van Barneveld and Phil Taylor in the top four – and that’s exactly what’s happened.
Some might not have predicted that Van Gerwen would be top of the table with one week left, but after the way he’s played this year very few will be surprised to see him in that position – and I can’t see Barney toppling him this week.
But there’s a great battle taking place for the final play-off spot after James Wade lost both of his games last week. I expected him to beat Andy Hamilton, who had nothing but pride to play for, but James was beaten by a very good professional who took some big shots out in the early legs and went on and won comfortably.
That’s put James in a perilous position where both Robert Thornton and Simon Whitlock can now beat him to the O2 Arena. He’s had some good performances this year, but also some indifferent ones.
It’s all to play for in Newcastle and I would say Thornton is possibly the favourite for the fourth spot – and if I was a total neutral I would say he deserves it. If Wade loses to Phil Taylor then two points from two games should see the Scotsman through.
Wade has the points on the board and is in possession of fourth and in many ways that’s the best position to be in, but Thornton is in the best form of the three. It’s such a hard call to predict who will go through to finals night.
Andy Hamilton v Adrian Lewis
Neither of these players can make the O2 Arena, but there is pride to play for and as Andy Hamilton proved last week, that means a lot to him. I’d also say Adrian Lewis needs something to kick-start his season and a good win here could do that. At times he’s been playing fairly well, but when he missed doubles it seems to get into his head. He also throws the third dart too quickly at times and thinks it will go in – and when you’re on top of your game it often does. When you’re scrapping for results that last dart doesn’t go in and it can make a difference if you take half a second and tighten up that final dart. He needs to do a pro’s job, rather than an extrovert’s job, and get those darts straighter. If he does that then he can go on and beat Andy – and I’m going to go for him here. It’ll be really tight though.
ROD’S CALL: Lewis win
Robert Thornton v Raymond van Barneveld
There’s no question that Raymond van Barneveld would love to finish in top spot and force Van Gerwen and Taylor to play each other in the semis; that would be a perfect scenario to him. However, he’s up against the form horse in Thornton. He won the Pro Tour event last weekend and I watched three of his games and he was incredible, especially in the final, finishing with a 111.33 average and needing just seven darts at a double in six legs. He’s really up for Thursday night because he can still finish in fourth spot, so this could be the game of the night. I can make a huge case for both players and it wouldn’t surprise me if Barney dips off the top of his form and Thornton walks away a winner. It’s a tough one to call though because if Barney is on top form all the way through then he he should win.
ROD’S CALL: I’m sitting on the fence here…
Adrian Lewis v Simon Whitlock
Lewis has only got pride to play for, but Simon Whitlock can qualify for the O2 Arena and will go up there really motivated. This is the important game for him and he needs to prepare properly and forget about the Barney game later in the night. If you win the first one then the second one comes naturally and you don’t need to think about it; but if you lose the first game you’re still thinking about it later on. Whitlock has been playing solidly lately and I think if he prepares right then he’ll win here, even though Lewis can beat anybody.
ROD’S CALL: Whitlock win
Phil Taylor v James Wade
At the beginning of the Premier League I always say that the last thing you want is to have to win points on the last night by beating Phil Taylor. Admittedly, The Power didn’t do too well in the Tour Events at the weekend but even though he was losing he was doing so with a 104 / 105 average and remains the man to beat under pressure. James Wade is a great player, but has not played well enough in the last two weeks to beat Phil Taylor. He needs to throw 104 averages or else he will lose this and if he loses then there’s a high chance that he won’t get the fourth spot. I’ve got to go with a Taylor win.
ROD’S CALL: Taylor win
Michael van Gerwen v Robert Thornton
This will be another tough game for Thornton, but the way he’s playing means he should be up for it. Van Gerwen will know he can be toppled off the top spot and I’m sure he would rather play Thornton, Wade or Whitlock in the semi-final rather than Barney or Taylor, so he’ll be up for winning this. I can’t see Thornton nicking his second game of the night, but it’s not impossible that he could get four points on Thursday night. I expect Van Gerwen to win, but it should be another good match.
ROD’S CALL: Van Gerwen win
Simon Whitlock v Raymond van Barneveld
At the start of each Premier League we always hope the last night will have a big impact and it could all come down to this last game. Both of these players find it hard to get up for two games in one night, but if Barney wins his first match then they’ll both have plenty to play for. I’ve got to go for a Barney win again, but he’ll need to be on the top of his game in what should be a close match.
ROD’S CALL: Van Barneveld win
RODney Trotter
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFFS
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Leicester City v Watford
Thursday, 7:45pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Watford’s nightmare end to the season could be about to get worse when they travel to the King Power Stadium to face Leicester in their playoff semi-final first leg clash.
Watford endured two goalkeeping injuries, a red-card, a late winner from Leeds’ Ross McCormack and a comeback from Hull against Cardiff on the last day of the league season, as the Tigers snatched automatic promotion from within the grasp of Gianfranco Zola’s side. Zola must now rouse his team for a difficult trip to Leicester – although they did triumph there 2-1 there just two weeks ago. But the Hornets will be without the man that opened the scoring that night, as striker Troy Deeney starts serving a suspension for his sending-off against Leeds.
Despite recording the most away wins in the league this campaign (12), Watford have won on the road just twice from their last six attempts. Championship Player of the Year Matej Vydra should return to the starting XI to replace Deeney, and the 20-goal forward looks the most likely to score for the visitors even though he has not found the net in 12 games for the club.
Leicester will go into the game the more confident of the two sides given they found a stoppage-time goal against Nottingham Forest to secure their playoff chance. French midfielder Anthony Knockaert has been a solid performer all season, and his strike ensured the Foxes pipped Bolton to sixth place in the league.
Nigel Pearson’s side have been inconsistent this season – two wins in 13 is hardly strong form going into a knockout format – but they will feel uplifted after winning at Forest while Watford may be deflated after coming so close to automatic promotion. In winger Lloyd Dyer and strikers Dave Nugent and Chris Wood, Leicester have the necessary firepower to punish Watford at home and could take a lead back down to Vicarage Road at a tempting price of 2.05.
Leicester’s 46 home goals during the league campaign is the second-highest in the division and they could capitalise on Watford’s disappointment by overpowering them with a Win To Nil at a healthy 3.5.
Recommended Bets
Back Leicester at 2.05
Back Leicester To Win To Nil at 3.5
Milesey
Crystal Palace v Brighton and Hove Albion
Friday, 7:45pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Bitter rivals Crystal Palace and Brighton meet at Selhurst Park for the first leg of a potentially enthralling two-legged playoff semi-final.
Crystal Palace ended a barren run of nine games without victory on the last day of the league season by beating – and relegating – Peterborough with a 3-2 comeback victory. It was a timely return to form for Ian Holloway’s side but whether they can keep that going against old foes Brighton could be doubtful. Striker Glenn Murray remains the league’s most prolific marksman after scoring a penalty against Posh to finish the regular season on 29 goals, but that was his first in nine.
Murray is particularly influential to the Eagles hopes at home in the first leg, as is the creativity of Manchester United-bound Wilfried Zaha. If he and Murray can replicate their form earlier in the campaign then Palace will be dangerous, while their 52 goals at home was the most scored in the division by a cushion of six.
Brighton on the other hand are definitely in good form, with their 2-0 win over Wolves at the weekend (which saw the West-Midlands outfit slip through the down into League One) their fourth win in five. Gus Poyet’s side are unbeaten in nine outings, keeping five clean sheets in the process. The Seagulls may struggle to hold out a fired-up Palace side away from home, but they should be backed to find the net themselves after hitting 10 in their last three, and average of over 3.3 goals a game.
Young Kazenga LuaLua has come into goalscoring form at the perfect time of the season with three strikes in as many games, and if he is picked from a strong forward line also possessing Leonardo Ulloa, Will Buckley and Ashley Barnes then he could add to his brace against Wolves.
While these two sides both produced 3-0 home wins against one another during the league season, a repeat result for Palace here looks unlikely given Brighton’s form. However a draw is worth backing at 3.2 with Both Teams To Score a more conservative 1.83 bet.
Recommended Bets
Back Draw in Crystal Palace v Brighton at 3.2
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.83
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
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THURSDAY 9TH MAY 2013
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Value appears pretty thin on the ground at Chester on Thursday – so again keep stakes low – but luckily Channel 4 also take in the 14:30 at Goodwood, which hopefully throws up the best bet of the day.
In the old days, when you had to write out a betting slip in the bookmakers or ring them up to place your bet, I may have fought shy of backing Bancnuanaheireann.
Because it probably would have taken about 15 minutes to write the bet out correctly, or about the same time to pronounce it properly to the telephonist!
No such problems for click-of-a-button online punters – though I hope I have spelt it correctly, now – and Mick Appleby’s stable star looks primed to go close here. I’ll be looking to get with him at around the 8.0 or 9.0 mark.
A word of warning though; confidence would be dented somewhat if there was a lot of rain at the course.
While Bancnuanaheireann has disappointed on his two starts this season, his up-and-coming trainer reports that he wasn’t suited by the track at Ripon last time. If back in the form that saw him finish fourth over this trip in the Cambridgeshire, or a narrow second here over 1m here last year off a 1lb higher mark, then he has excellent claims.
Looking at Chester now and the small fields of the Chester Vase and Huxley Stakes make them pretty unattractive betting mediums – notwithstanding a slight preference is for Miblish at around the 10.0 mark in the latter race at 14:15 – but there could be some mileage in siding with Eshtibaak in the opener at 13:45.
I would expect him to trade around the 8.0 to 9.0 mark when the market settles down, and that may be worth a small interest, even though stall nine isn’t ideal.
He was well backed for the Lincoln, where he ran well for a long way before weakening close home. But I think that 1m2f and fast ground here is likely to suit him better than a mile on soft going did at Doncaster.
Eshtibaak clearly didn’t meet expectations after winning a Lingfield handicap over 1m2f on his reappearance last season, but he showed promise thereafter and the way in which he has been supported in his three starts since suggests he is thought capable of better than a 92-rated handicapper.
Recommended Bets:
Back Eshtibaak in the 13:45 at Chester at 8.0 or better
Back Bancnuanaheireann in the 14:30 at Goodwood at 8.0 or better
Milesey
( betfair )