IT'S the final weekend of the Premier League and after Wigan's loss to Arsenal in midweek settled the relegation issue there is only a Champions League place up for grabs on Sunday.
Arsenal are in pole position to pip Spurs and elsewhere Sir Alex Ferguson and Davie Moyes say farewell to Man United and Everton respectively – although I'm sure their paths will cross somewhere in the future. Here's Milesey's thoughts on the games.
Chelsea 1.73 v Everton 5.5; The Draw 4.1
Everton have only won one of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge so we can immediately disregard an away win from a statistical analysis point of view. However, six of the last 12 Premier League meetings between the two teams have ended in a draw so the home win isn’t an obvious conclusion.
The Toffees have won their last five Premier League games played on the final day of the season, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea in 2010-11, while Chelsea are unbeaten in seven Premier League matches (W5 D2) – their longest such run under Rafael Benitez.
With both sides having positives in the statistics, and the draw a popular result in this fixture, it makes sense to take the 4.1 on offer.
Best Bet: Back draw @ 4.1
Man City 1.36 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.4
Norwich have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League games against Manchester City and have been on the receiving end of some one-sided batterings in recent meetings.
City have scored 18 goals in their last four league games against the Canaries, with Sergio Aguero scoring four of those. More than the Argentine has scored against any other Premier League side.
Best Bet: Back any unquoted correct score @ 4.4
Southampton 1.82 v Stoke 5.2; The Draw 3.8
Southampton have won six and drawn one of their last seven home games against Stoke City in all competitions but are without a win in five successive Premier League matches (D3 L2) against all opposition, netting just two goals during this run.
With the Potters having scored only five goals in their last 10 Premier League away matches the obvious conclusion is to go low on the number of goals scored this weekend.
Best Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
Swansea 1.91 v Fulham 4.4; The Draw 3.8
Swansea have a 100 per cent Premier League record against Fulham having won each of their previous three meetings and after losing just one of their last nine Premier League games its easy to conclude a home win represents value at odds of 1.91.
If you’re looking for a bet at bigger odds it may be worth looking at the HT/FT market. Eleven of Dimitar Berbatov’s 14 Premier League goals for Fulham have come before half-time, while Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals in the second half of matches in the Premier League this season (70%).
Best Bet: Back Fulham/Swansea @ 30.0 in HT/FT
West Brom 4.9 v Man Utd 1.82; The Draw 4.1
Only Chelsea (33) have scored more Premier League goals against West Brom than Manchester United (32), suggesting Sir Alex Ferguson could sign off in style from his reign in his 1500th game.
Man Utd also have the best points per game ratio in the month of May in the history of the competition (2.07), while West Brom have the worst (0.84), of current top-flight teams.
Best Bet: Back Man Utd to win @ 1.82
West Ham 1.7 v Reading 5.8; The Draw 4.0
The Hammers have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D3 L1) but have won only one of their previous five league meetings with Reading (D1 L3).
Reading’s record of having won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League season means we cannot back the visitors but there is room to take on the hosts at odds-on prices.
Best Bet: Lay West Ham to win @ 1.7
Wigan 2.24 v Aston Villa 3.55; The Draw 3.55
Wigan have failed to win any of their last six home games in the Premier League against Aston Villa (D2 L4) and with the wind being battered out of them by Arsenal in midweek I can’t be having them as favourites here.
However, Christian Benteke’s suspension will leave Villa short of impetus in front of goal – he has contributed to half of Villa’s 30 Premier League goals this year (14 goals, 1 assist) -and so we should expect a low-scoring end-of-season stalemate.
Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 15.0
Newcastle v Arsenal
Newcastle take on Arsenal in one of only two really meaningful games and while the Gunners know a win will secure Champions League football the draw is a huge runner at odds of 4.2 (16-5)
The Magpies have endured a difficult campaign that has been blighted by injuries and fixture congestion. Those excuses withstanding, Alan Pardew’s men have performed well below par and they are lucky to not need a result going into this game.
The pressure will be off for a change though and I’m sure everyone involved with the club will want to finish the season on a high. Hatem Ben Arfa is back from injury and he netted from the spot at QPR last weekend. The defence aren’t up to much but they do at least have some quality players in the forward areas.
Arsenal are on a magnificent run of nine unbeaten since the defeat at White Hart Lane that many thought had ended their top-four aspirations. Seven wins and two draws have lifted them about Spurs and they only have to match their rival's result on the final day.
Arsene Wenger’s side have looked a bit flaky at times though and they don’t have a leader on the field to rally the troops when the chips are down. I just have a sneaky suspicion an away win isn’t the formality the odds suggest and there could be one last twist to come.
The draw is just too big at 4.2 (16-5) and I also quite fancy a 2-2 scoreline at 12.0 (11/1) as we’ve had some high scoring results between these two in recent seasons.
Best Bets
Back the draw @ 4.2 (16/5)
Back a 2-2 correct score @ 12.0 (11/1)
Spurs v Sunderland
It promises for a nervous atmosphere, with the crowds at the respective matches being just as interested in the news from elsewhere as they are in the action on the pitch in front of them.
Tottenham have endured a long season due to their European exploits but go into this game missing only their long-term absentees Younes Kaboul and Sandro. Moussa Dembele should be fit to play having failed to start the last two games and could replace Scott Parker.
Sunderland have far more problems. The on-loan Danny Rose has returned to Spurs with injury and would have been ineligible anyway. Stephane Sessegnon and Craig Gardner are suspended, while Lee Cattermole and Steven Fletcher are both injured.
This could have been a potentially tricky game for Tottenham if Sunderland were in need of a result but the midweek relegation of Wigan has left the Black Cats with nothing much to play for.
Yet it’s still hard to recommend odds of 1.31 on a Spurs win. Andre Villas-Boas’ side have often struggled to break down teams that they should beat at home, even when (like Sunderland) they have nothing much to play for. The recent 1-0 home loss to Fulham can count as painful evidence of that.
Under such circumstances the logic is to look for more value in other win markets. The Tottenham half-time/full-time result at 1.9 doesn’t provide it. If you look back at Spurs’ last 12 Premier League wins they have only lead at half-time in two of them. The draw/Tottenham at 4.7 is a better bet.
Another market you’d perhaps go for when the home side is a very short price, is for them to win to nil. Spurs can be backed at 3.05 to win without conceding, but statistically it looks unlikely.
On paper Sunderland’s attack might seem more toothless than a bald man’s comb but they have managed to score at least one goal in their last six outings. Tottenham meanwhile, have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League games.
Spurs are defending terribly from set-pieces and the 1.98 for both teams to score appeals, while the 8.2 for AVB’s team to win from behind looks over generous. Tottenham have conceded the first goal in six of their last nine games.
Ultimately I expect Tottenham to prevail but as is often the case with the club, there are bound to be nervous times ahead and they are likely to make things difficult for themselves. 2-1 to Spurs at 10.0 is my correct score pick.
Spurs are now out at 3.2 to finish in the top four, with Arsenal at 1.42.
Best Bets
Back both teams to score at 1.98
Back the draw half-time/Spurs full-time at 4.7
Back Tottenham to win from behind at 8.2
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Well had schalke, Valencia, Granada and guess who let me down juventus for a very nice 4 fold grrrrrrrrrrrrr
GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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Liverpool v QPR (Sunday, 16:00)
Daniel Sturridge has scored more goals (10) in his first 13 Premier League appearances for the club than any other Liverpool player
After wrapping up a first Premier League hat-trick at Craven Cottage, the sky is the limit for Liverpool’s £12 million January signing. Sturridge has always shown potential for great things, though only now in a red shirt is he starting to realise his potential on the big stage. Making the most of the absence of Luis Suarez, the striker is gratefully gobbling up Philippe Coutinho’s exquisite through balls and he should fill his boots once more against hapless QPR.
Best Bet: Back Daniel Sturridge to score @ 1.75
Manchester City v Norwich (Sunday, 16:00)
Sergio Aguero has scored four goals in the Premier League against Norwich; against no side has he scored more often
Despite a turbulent week following FA Cup failure in which Roberto Mancini was given the boot, Man City got the job done against Reading with efficiency. One of the scorers was Aguero who, by last season’s illustrious standards, has endured a mixed bag of a campaign. However, while this fixture promises no repeat of those fabled last-day heroics against QPR, the Canaries are more reminiscent of sitting ducks where the Argentine is concerned.
Recommended Bet: Back Sergio Aguero to score @ 2.1
Tottenham v Sunderland (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 2)
Emmanuel Adebayor has scored five goals in his last six Premier League appearances in the month of May, including two in his last two matches for Spurs
Tottenham fans have been left wondering where the real Adebayor has been hiding all season, after the mercurial striker’s recent spate of goals. Still, those of a Lilywhite persuasion will have no qualms if the former Gooner scores against Sunderland and helps force his previous employers to start a season in the Europa League for the first time since 1997/98. He looks unplayable at present.
Recommended Bet:Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ 2.2
Wigan v Aston Villa (Sunday, 16:00)
Shaun Maloney has scored three and assisted four goals in his last nine appearances for Wigan in all competitions
Wigan’s Scotland international is one of a crop of players who is sure to attract offers from other top-flight clubs in the wake of the Latics’ Premier League elimination. Maloney’s recent performances and goals in a Wigan shirt have certainly caught the eye, especially his ability to notch a free-kick using that Gareth Bale-esque dipping technique. Being his last game in the shop window, he’ll be out to impress once more.
Recommended Bet: Back Shaun Maloney to score @ 3.75
Milesey
BYE BYE SIR ALEX
How determined are the Manchester United players to give Sir Alex Ferguson a winning send-off when he sends out his team for the last time at West Brom on Sunday? That’s one of the key questions on a Premier League programme with few make-or-break games on the last day of the season.
The Premier League is renowned as the most competitive in the world but Sunday’s finale has nothing to rival the dramatic conclusion to last season when Sergio Aguero snatched the title for Manchester City in the dying seconds and the relegation battle also went down to the wire.
This year’s relegation issue was settled on Tuesday when Wigan lost at Arsenal and the title has been United’s for weeks, leaving only the final Champions League places to be settled.
United may be more motivated than most teams, as they have the opportunity to finish in style for Ferguson. Victory at West Brom would equal their manager’s best points haul in a 38-match season, alongside the 91 points of an even more runaway success in the 1999-2000 season.
The final game hasn’t always been crucial for United but Ferguson’s standards are so high that it is rare for them to ease off before the official start of their holidays. United have won 15 times on the final day in 20 Premier League seasons.
That 75 per cent win rate should convince punters to put their faith in Ferguson’s team for one last time, with win odds of 1.81 and plenty of form factors in United’s favour.
United are the best away team in the Premier League and have won 10 out of 13 on the road against teams below sixth place (a 77 per cent win rate). The top six overall also happen to be the top six on home form, which means United’s away win rate is the same 77 per cent against teams that rank lower on home form. West Brom, eighth overall in the table, are ninth on home form.
It is questionable how much should be read into West Brom’s high standing, which owes much to their excellent form in the first half of the season. After the first 19 games, the Baggies were in sixth place with 33 points at an average of 1.74 points per game. In the second half of the season, however, West Brom have been the third-worst side in the Premier League (only QPR and struggling Stoke have performed worse, and then only marginally).
The Baggies’ points average in that period has slumped to a measly 0.83 points per game, with 11 defeats out of 18. More to the point, they have lost seven out of nine against top-half teams in the second half of the season, starting with a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford.
United, meanwhile, have been ruthlessly efficient against teams who are struggling for form. In 10 matches against the worst 10 form teams in the second half of the season (West Brom, remember, rank 18th), United have won nine and drawn one.
All nine of United’s wins were to nil – at an aggregate of 20 goals to nil – and the sole draw came last month when West Ham managed to breach their defence twice to force a 2-2 result.
Other figures to note are that eight of the nine wins were achieved win-win for United on the half-time/full-time and United won both halves in five of them.
A United win-win at 2.78, and a United win to nil, look good options.
United’s form chance is clear; their motivation less so. But at the odds it’s worth the risk that Sir Alex goes out on a high.
Recommended Bet
Manchester United to beat West Brom @ 1.81
Milesey
Back on the tipping…ko shortly 2 aways Newells 8/5 and Penapolense 9/2 on 365 singles/double. Nice price on Panapolense in particular..2nd leg of final 1st leg 0-0…they also beat Botagogo SP 4-1 away in semi…might be worth 50p?
Unbelievable they wer winning so didn’t look till towards end of second half n they wer 3-1 down… 3-2 in the end I’m beginning to think this game is fixed… Betting that is… Happened to me last week braga winning 1-0 n lost 3-1 in last 5 mins… Cost me £450…
Aston Villa @ 27/10
Sir Alex Ferguson brought the curtain down on his Manchester United career by witnessing a crazy 5-5 draw at the Hawthorns this afternoon.
United twice held three-goal leads at 0-3 and 2-5 and over £270k was matched at Betfair‘s minimum odds of 1.01 about an away victury. But three late goals by the Baggies resulted in In-Play mayhem on the exchange, with the Draw being matched at 510.0 and the Over 8.5 Goals option (no Over 9.5 Goals market available) being matched at the maximum price of 1000.0.
Manchester United – with David Moyes at the helm next season of course – are 3.25 favourites to retain the 2013/14 Premier League title, just ahead of Manchester City (3.35) and Chelsea (3.5).
In today’s crucial fixtures both Arsenal and Tottenham beat Newcastle and Sunderland respectively by a single goal meaning the Gunners will play Champions League football next season virtue of finishing fourth in the table. Tottenham will play Europa League football for the second successive year.
Laurent Koscielny – matched at 50.0 in the First Goalscorer market – was the hero for Arsene Wenger’s men, while Gareth Bale (5.4 FGS) netted the Spurs winner. Arsenal were matched at a high of 2.0 and Tottenham at 4.0 In-Play to win their games.
The Gunners were never matched at higher than 3.6 during the season to record a Top Four Finish.
Elsewhere on the final day of the Premier League season Manchester City suffered a surprising loss at home to Norwich. The Canaries hit a high of 16.0 to win the game with the 2-3 Correct Score being matched at 140.0.
Fulham also recorded a surprise victory, the 0-3 scoreline in which they beat Swansea at the Liberty Stadium was also matched at 140.0.
There were also wins for Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham on a goal-filled day, while the Southampton v Stoke, and Wigan v Aston Villa games ended all square.
Full details of all today’s In-Play prices matched are listed below.
Chelsea 2 Everton 1
Chelsea Win – 3.35
Juan Mata First Goalscorer – 11.0
2-1 Correct Score – 9.6
Liverpool 1 QPR 0
Liverpool Win – 1.34
Phillippe Coutinho First Goalscorer – 8.2
1-0 Correct Score – 16.5
Manchester City 2 Norwich 3
Norwich Win – 16.0
Anthony Pilkington First Goalscorer – 25.0
2-3 Correct Score – 140.0
Newcastle 0 Arsenal 1
Arsenal Win – 2.0
Laurent Koscielny First Goalscorer – 50.0
0-1 Correct Score – 12.0
Southampton 1 Stoke 1
The Draw – 5.0
Peter Crouch First Goalscorer – 11.5
1-1 Correct Score – 9.2
Swansea 0 Fulham 3
Fulham Win – 6.0
0-3 Correct Score – 140.0
Tottenham 1 Sunderland 0
Tottenham Win – 4.0
Gareth Bale First Goalscorer – 5.4
Sending Off – 6.4
1-0 Correct Score – 11.0
West Brom 5 Manchester United 5
The Draw – 510.0 (£270k matched on Man Utd win at 1.01)
Shinji Kagawa First Goalscorer – 13.0
Over 8.5 Goals – 1000.0 (£3 matched), generally 130.0 (no over 9.5 goals market)
West Ham 4 Reading 2
West Ham Win – 1.75
Kevin Nolan First Goalscorer – 12.0
Hat-trcik Scored – 22.0
4-2 Correct Score – 50.0
Wigan 2 Aston Villa 2
The Draw – 5.0
Darrent Bent First Goalscorer – 9.0
2-2 Correct Score – 16.0
Milesey