HJK Helsinki are odds-on for their trip to Lahti this afternoon (4.30pm) but the Finnish Veikkausliiga champions could be in for a difficult match.
Lahti have made a solid start to their league campaign with five points from their opening four fixtures.
They are 10th of 12 but they have games in hand and it won't be long before they're much higher up the table. The Finnish season traditionally begins with the League Cup and Lahti aended up lifting the trophy at the beginning of April so clearly have a decent set of players.
Tommi Kautonen's side fell to a 2-0 defeat at Inter Turku last Thursday but prior to that beat KuPS at home. That was their only league game at Lahti Stadium this season and they've traditionally been strong there, finishing last year with nine wins out of 10, including a 3-0 drubbing of today's opponents.
HJK are back on top of the pile even at this early stage of the campaign. They haven't performed well in the cups though as they were knocked out of the Suomen by RoPS and the League Cup at the hands of JJK.
Sixten Boström is the new man in charge this year and the pressure is on to deliver the club's fifth straight league title.
He's opened up with three wins and two draws but they were held to a 0-0 at home last week and also drew at Inter Turku seven days previous.
Even though they won the league last term they were prone to poor results on the road, including a spell where they picked up just four points from a possible 21.
HJK may go on to win this match but I wouldn't want to be backing them at odds-on. Lahti are a decent outfit, so with Helsinki trading around the 1.86 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay HJK Helsinki v Lahti @ 1.86
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Milesey, glad we’re agreeing on something. Right, off to brave the gales. Might put up a btts treble later if time to do the research.
mr Mileseys Lay HJK Helsinki v Lahti means that HJK going to win or draw ?? thanks and sorry
LAY HJK HELSINKI
SO…………… WIN/DRAW LAHTI will give me the win ;)
Milesey
thanks mr Milesys …i guess i got it now :)
Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kings XI Punjab
Tuesday 14 May 2013 at 11:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Royal Challengers Bangalore
RCB stand on the brink of qualification but it’s been a mixed season for Virat Kohli’s men who need to bounce back following a lacklustre display against KKR. The Royal Challengers will forever be accused of being a one-man team and there will be some concerns after Chris Gayle’s subdued performance along with a general all-round failure to come to terms with a difficult Ranchi pitch.
The good news for RCB fans lies in a perfect home record that has seen them won six out of six at the M.Chinnaswamy Stadium and while home advantage is a debatable benefit in the short format, you simply can’t ignore that kind of return.
Kings XI Punjab
Kings won the reverse fixture in Mohali earlier this month thanks to the lone efforts of David Miller who scored the third fastest century in IPL history. That knock proved that it only takes one major innings to upset any T20 result odds but can anyone in the away side repeat that feat in this crucial tie?
Miller’s own form has fallen away slightly since that game and David Hussey has now lost to place to Luke Pomersbach after a string of low scores. Adam Gilchrist has returned to the side but has made little impact and while Shaun Marsh has performed well, he does seem to be playing at less than full fitness following a hamstring issue.
There remains real danger amongst that roster of overseas players but you feel that only a knock of David Miller’s magnitude will give Kings any chance of claiming the points.
Venue and Conditions
First innings scores at the M.Chinnaswamy have been fairly consistent and in six matches, four of those totals have fallen between 152 and 161. The only real anomaly came in RCB’s match against Pune when Chris Gayle’s 175 drove them to make 263 but that only boosted the average to 167 – a minimum target for anyone taking first knock. The forecast for this match suggests some heavy cloud cover and even a threat of rain which could bring the lottery of Duckworth Lewis into the equation.
Match Odds
Bangalore are clear favourites at 1.55 while Punjab are out at a very generous 2.6. Kings XI certainly have a chance and there is some real value in that price but will need either a big innings approaching three figures from one of their batters, or some help from the DL method in a shortened game. Either of those scenarios could happen and it could be a close affair but a RCB win seems far more likely.
Top Bangalore Batsman
I’d correctly called Chris Gayle for Bangalore’s last match against KKR but I hadn’t expected him to top score with just 33 from 36 balls. It’s said that the patient Cheteshwar Pujara is a perfect foil for his opening partner but perhaps his 5 from 14 balls put Gayle under too much pressure in that contest.
There are other contenders in Virat Kohli and AB De Villiers but if Pujara is rested it should free Chris Gayle up to play his natural game and he would give you the return at around 2.75.
Top Punjab Batsman
Shaun Marsh is the favourite here at 3.0 or better while Miller remains a danger despite his lack of form and will attract a lot of money at around 4.5. However, Punjab fans have yet to see the best of Luke Pomersbach and the power hitting Aussie should make a major contribution here at 5.0 or better.
Recommended Bet
Back Chris Gayle to top score for Bangalore at around 2.75
Milesey
Bad luck, Turks let us down. Any other interesting options tonight ?
Tony, disappointed with that but not really going chasing anything. Super Single still on the go and have backed Socieded and thinking about doing them -1. But there’s always another day.
BET OF THE DAY
————————
Reading v Man City 20:00 K/O
As far as disappointment dead rubbers go, this one is right up there.
Reading, relegated two weeks ago, face defeated FA Cup finalists Manchester City at the Madejski Stadium.
The Royals are still aiming to not finish bottom of the table and can achieve that with a point after QPR lost to Newcastle on Sunday.
Nigel Adkins achieved his first victory as manager last weekend with an entertaining 4-2 win at Fulham.
But that was only the Berkshire outfit’s first win in 11 games as they prepare for life back in the Championship.
Jimmy Kebe (groin) could return but Jason Roberts (hip) remains sidelined.
Manchester City, meanwhile, could have hardly had their egos bruised more badly this season.
After crashing out of the Champions League group stages and surrendering their Premier League crown without a fight, Roberto Mancini’s men were embarrassed by Wigan at Wembley on Saturday.
According to reports Mancini is a dead man walking, with Malaga’s Manuel Pellegrini poised to replace him.
City need four points to guarantee second place ahead of Chelsea this season, however, and will be keen for an immediate return to winning ways.
The former champions have kept a clean sheet in 15 of their last 27 league games.
Worryingly, Scott Sinclair (shoulder) is out. Who on earth has the shoes to fill that place on the bench? These are troubled times at Eastlands.
Despite Saturday’s incredible disappointment, Mancini’s men should be coming away with all the points here. In truth City have struggled away at the so-called lesser sides this season but bank on them for a comfortable three points.
Reading 0 Man City 4 @ 20/1
Man City -2 @ 3.35
best bet:
Man City HT/ Man City FT @ 2.25
Milesey
Chelsea vs Benfica, Wed 19:45 BST, Live on ITV1
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.5, Benfica 3.2, the draw 3.4
Chelsea’s interim boss Rafa Benitez insists he’s led the club to a successful campaign, and if they win the Europa League trophy it will be tough to dispute the Spaniard’s assertion. Saturday’s 2-1 win at Aston Villa sealed Champions League qualification for next season, with Frank Lampard finally breaking Bobby Tambling’s all-time goalscoring record, so all that remains is for the West Londoners to win a second major European trophy in two years.
Having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage, Chelsea have gradually grown into this competition. The Blues needed a last-gasp goal to edge out Sparta Prague in the last 32, and had to overturn a first-leg deficit against Steaua Bucharest in the last 16. They survived a late defensive collapse in Russia to overcome quarter-final opponents Rubin Kazan, and FC Basel were beaten home and away in the semis.
Portuguese giants Benfica have reached their ninth European final, having also dropped out of the Champions League. I would argue that the Eagles have had a tougher route to the final than Chelsea. Impressive German outfit Bayer Leverkusen were beaten home and away, as were Bordeaux in the last 16. Newcastle gave Jorge Jesus’ men a huge scare in the quarter-finals, moving to within a goal of progressing before Benfica landed the knockout blow. The semis against Fenerbahce were equally difficult – Benfica lost the first leg 1-0 in Turkey, but turned the tie around with a 3-1 home win to book a trip to the Amsterdam Arena.
Chelsea are finishing the season strongly – they are unbeaten in their last eight matches, winning six of them. Their only draws in that period were at home to Spurs and away to Liverpool. Benitez is sometimes unfairly labelled as a defensive coach, but under his tutelage Chelsea have clicked offensively in recent weeks. The Blues have rattled in 17 goals in their last eight matches, and they have drawn a blank just once in their last 20 games in all competitions.
Former Benfica defender David Luiz is revelling in a new central midfield role – he scored a stunning long-range effort at Fulham last month, and he netted spectacular strikes in both legs of the Europa League semi against FC Basel. He is a healthy 20.0 to be First Goalscorer, and 6.0 in the To Score market.
Benfica’s confidence has been knocked by a two-match winless run in the Portuguese league which has cost them top spot with a game to go. A 1-1 draw at home to Estoril allowed rivals Porto to make up ground, and then Porto beat Benfica 2-1 with a stoppage-time winner to move a point clear at the top. It’s difficult to know whether such a catastrophic defeat will galvanise Benfica or damage their morale, but they do look to be running out of steam after a long season.
At least Benfica take solace from their explosive attack. Talismanic Paraguyan striker Oscar Cardozo has scored five goals in his last five Europa League games (he is 3.25 in the To Score market), and in the league he has rattled in 16 goals in 20 games. His fellow striker Eduardo Salvio has already won the Europa League twice with Atletico Madrid, and he has made more appearances in the competition (33) than any other player. Benfica have played 46 matches in all competitions, and they have only failed to score four times. Two of those games were against Barcelona.
Neither team has defended well of late – Benfica haven’t kept a clean sheet for five games, while Chelsea looked fragile at the back in their last two games against Aston Villa and Spurs. With two strong attacks on show, I like the look of Over 2.5 Goals at 2.12. Finals can be cagey affairs, but Chelsea are brimming with attacking talent, and I think they’ll play on the front foot.
After missing the Champions League final through suspension, Chelsea club captain John Terry seems likely to miss this game with an ankle injury. A bigger blow is the potential loss of elusive Belgian winger Eden Hazard, who has been terrific in recent weeks. If Hazard fails to recover from an ankle injury, his likely replacement Victor Moses is at least in good form, having scored a goal in each of his last four Europa League appearances. Benfica are without full-back Maxi Pereira because of suspension, but they welcome back Dutch winger Ola John from a ban.
Chelsea beat Benfica home and away in last season’s Champions League quarter-finals, and I think the Blues will come out on top again. I have been really impressed by their attacking play in the last couple of months, with Fernando Torres (five EL goals), Oscar and Juan Mata (six assists in European games) all sparkling at different times. Former Benfica duo David Luiz and Ramires give real thrust from central midfield, and I suspect Benfica will struggle to contain them. With free-scoring players like Frank Lampard likely to be on the bench, Chelsea have the opportunity to change things up if the game is tight in the latter stages, and if things get tough they can draw on their experience of last season’s Champions League final win. I think the price of 2.5 for the Chelsea victory is too good to miss.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.12
Back Chelsea to win at 2.5
Milesey
Mr fix it, reckon you’re right. Lay of day didn’t ce off as well, like you say one of those days.
Bonkers bet for tomorrow at Emirates 1-1