Having dug deep to see off Austria in extra-time, the Azzurri were back at their swashbuckling best as they defeated Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-finals.
It came at a cost with stand-out left-back Leonardo Spinazzola picking up an injury that has ruled him out of the rest of the tournament.
But Roberto Mancini’s men have now gone 32 games unbeaten and that momentum could carry them all the way to Euro glory.
Spain have largely flown under the radar so far and needed penalties to see off 10-man Switzerland in the last round.
Luis Enrique’s side are the tournament top scorers with 12 goals so it’s strange to say they have lacked a cutting edge up front.
Yet the likes of Alvaro Morata and Gerardo Moreno have been guilty of missing some sitters and they can’t afford to be so profligate against the Italians.
Nine of the 19 meetings between these nations have ended in draws so there could be some value in backing the stalemate at 21/10 with William Hill.
Italy have only collected four cards across the whole tournament and Spain just five so the stats suggest a quiet night for the ref.
Under 3.5 cards pays 23/30 at McBookie and that looks decent value.
- Spain like to dominate possession and look good value at evens with William Hill to win over one corner in each half.