STOP PRESS: Check comments section for chance to win £25 tonight and Gomez doesn't start.
Euro 2012 quarter-final, Gdansk, Friday, 7.45pm
GERMANY were my trophy tips from day one – and I'm not about to desert them now.
Joachim Low's side have looked as sweet as any, winning their three group games for the first time.
It's not been easy, however, with three one-goal wins in the Group of Death that claimed Holland as a victim.
Germans probably thought Greece would be debt free before they faced them in the Euros but I'm sure they won't take Fernando Santos's men for granted.
Greece are in the quarter-finals on merit thanks to their shock romp against Russia but I can't see them going one better in Gdansk tonight.
It's a Germany victory for me but as you're getting no bigger than 4-11 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes punters will have to hunt down the value bets.
Last night we were all on Cristiano Ronaldo and one of the most popular bets tonight is likely to be Mario Gomez at 7-2 with BetVictor to bag the opener. But he's not starting is he!!!!!
The Golden Boot favourite netted Germany's first three goals of the tournament against Portugal and Holland before missing out against Denmark. He is 1-1 with Stan James to score at any time and 7-4 (various) favourite to win the Golden Boot.
I'm taking a punt on Bastian Schweinsteiger at 14-1 (various). The midfielder has been one of the players of the tournament so far but has yet to break his goal duck.
Greece don't score many – one in each of their group games – but don't concede loads either and are likely to deploy the same defensive tactics that took them all the way at Euro 2008 so it could take class act Gomez to make the breakthrough.
Russia had around 30 shots on goal but were beaten 1-0 so don't underestimate the Greeks' battling qualities.
Skipper Giorgios Karagounis's absence will be a blow while left-back Jose Holebas is also suspended so Santos will be forced to make changes to a back four already without the injured Avraam Papadopoulos.
So I'm backing the Germans, who haven't lost any of their eight meetings with Greece, to wear their opponents down and I can see a 2-0 victory that pays 6-1 at Ladbrokes. To win to nil Germany are 11-10 at Betfred.
Georgios Samaras hasn't threatened a goal yet but played a starring role in the defeat of Russia with his link-up play to the lone striker. The Celtic star, who has missed the target with all four of his attempts on goal, is 18-1 at unibet to break his duck with a goal.
Germany are 4-7 with William Hill on the race to two goals, a market Greece would need 180 minutes to bring up.
Recommendation
Germany to win to nil
(11-10, Betfred)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Mr F gomez to score at anytime germany to win at 13to10 thats where my money is going! Hope the germans fly at them from the start and put the tie to bed by half time! Good luck guys!
Alex, I’ll probably be on that too Alex. I put all my eggs in one basket last night with Ronaldo and Portugal and I’ll be doing something similar with Gomez and Germany. Only this time I’m playing with bookies money.
What does anyone think about over 13.5 corners @ 9/2 with Stan James
Chris, it’s a lot of corners. If you were predicting Greece corners you’d say no more than three – and maybe none or one – so Germany need possibly 12 or 13 on their own.
Just noticed a huge price cut with Stan James and VC on Torres to score anytime. He is 6/1 for first goal and was 2/1 to score anytime. First Goalscorer price is still 6/1 but they have cut him to 11/10 to score anytime!!
Chris, you’re ahead of me, I’m still sizing up Germany v Greece. It’s one game at a time just now.
Alex, if you wait until later, Ppower will probably do an enhanced odds on the bet. maybe 2/1
Thanks robbie but av already done the bet! They might even bring the price in mate!
Chris that is a great price for corners! I think germany will get around that on there own! Only thing is with corners is if they take a lead of 2 nil then they dont have to attack all the time! And thats what i hope the germans do tonite!
if its the pricegasm at PP robbie think the max stakes usually £20, sometines £10, but its only
available for bout 10 mins so have to be quick.
tonights game is either 1-0 germany or 3 or 4-0 germamy, actually hate watchin greece play and cqnt see them scoring
Guys, remember Paddy Power refunding losing stakes on usual markets if Gomez scores first as they did with Ronaldo last night. Ladbrokes doing the same if Podolski scores first.
Germany -1 for me tonight really can’t see Greece scoring they are toothless up front and can see the Germans putting at least a couple past then.
just noticed youve got portugal to win to nil when it should be germany paul,
i’ve went for gomez 1st gl £3, gomez germany wincast £10 and and £1 on gomez 2-0 & 3-1.
also e/w acca at ascot 2.30 kosika, 3.45 laugh out loud, 4.25 retrieve and 5.25 docofthebay.
£23k fa free bet out paper haha got to go for it tho:)
Craig, thanks I’ll fix it. Can’t get Portugal out of my head, wish I was heading there in the summer and getaway from this rain. Good luck with the horses.
Paul how do you NAP on the horses ? Ta
I’ve gone for the following bets:
£100 Gomez first goal @ 3/1
£50 Schweinsteiger first goal @ 14/1
£50 Schweinsteiger last goal @ 14/1
£60 Germany 1-0 @ 13/2
£50 Germany 2-0 @ 6/1.
Chris, very similar to my bets to be honest although I don’t last scorer and I’ve gone in heavy on Gomez.
Hi Chris
Good to see you winning with your bets
You are putting £100 on gomez first goal scorer
Have you considered looking at
schweinsteiger to score at any time
Hills are 10/3 shop coupon
If you maybe look around you might get better
Good luck with your bets
Paul who do you reckon for motm? Gomez a tad short for my liking at 3/1 but could he be the man? Schweinsteiger is 9/1.
Chris, Gomez doesn’t catch they eye like Ronaldo. He will only be man of the match if he scores two or three. More likely to be Ozil or Schweinsteiger in my opinion.
last 5 matches have produced unders 2,5 there going EVENS at Lads for same tonite, i,m working on the theory Greece wont score and the jerries wont score 3
Robert, I’ve tipped 2-0 Germany so I see where you are coming from.
Paul what do you think of Germany -3 on the corners handicap @ 5/6 with Skybet? I think it’s gotta be a cert, Greece will sit back and aim to soak up as much pressure as they can
Chris, that’s a corners bet I like. As I said earlier I can’t Greece winning more than three so that would need seven for Germany. That’s should come up.
I have a feeling Greece will defend for most of the game and keep the score low. I reckon under 2.5 goals
Tell u what if germany win with gomez scoring the bookies will get an absolute tonking the night. Heres hopin……..
Joe, it will be a repeat of last night. They’ll be wanting anything but a Gomez first goal but can’t see Greece getting anything from the game.
greece will feel thats their best chance of scoring at corners so think they will get 6 or 7, a had russia race to 12 corners v greece and were leading 8-5 at 1 point but its a different class tonight.
I might go more cautious tonight, more wary of those little greeks. Whereas I knew Czech’s had nothing.
Andy, Czechs beat Greece remember. Two ordinary teams in my opinion.
Got 2 doubles running
ronaldo & gomez 1st
both games over 12 corners £20 9/5 & 16/5
had this bet up twice so far pays
between 10 – 15/1
Hopefully a 90min win tonight for the sake of my match bets but for my semi’s antepost, any kind of win will do.
Will probably back Germany to win to nil also. Just wanted to point out to anyone who doesn’t look at this market that its been very prifitable for me over the last year or so. Many times the opposition don’t even test the keeper of the side you back. Germany also 4/6 to keep a clean sheet looks a cert. Shorter price but I expect Greece to aim to take the game to pens so this covers nil nil just in case the unthinkable happens and Greece manage to keep Germany out for 90 mins.
Marc, win to nil paid off for me last night and I don’t recall the Portugal keeper making a single save.
Is everyone SO convinced about Germany? They’re 1/3 in 90 mins, so with quite a bit built up in the online account, I’m thinking of putting a whack on them just to win.
However, after watching Greece defending for their lives against Russia, I’m worried about a 0-0. Everyone was purring about Russia’s attacking talent (Dzagoev, Kersakhov, Pogrebnyak, Pavyluchenko, Arshavin) but Greece really stood firm and had all 11 behind the ball for most of the match, limiting Russia to ridiculous attempts from outside the box.
With the bookies taking such a battering on the Spain, Italy, England and Portugal matches, their time has to come soon!
Gary, I just can’t see Greece holding. In my opinion Germany are much better than Russia and the Russians really ran out of ideas while the Germans have better strength in depth. I’d be really surprised if Greece didn’t lose but I don’t particularly like odds of 1-3.
Looks like that strength in depth will be put to the test tonight Mr F!
German Sky Sports News equivalent says:
– Loew looking for more pace up front, hence the inclusion of Schurrle on the left
– Podolski is too defensive and he needs players to break down Greece
– Klose may be “trickier”
– Gomez is “mad”
Obviously, waiting for the team to be announced now but will be on Schurrle any time
Gary, is that a Schurr thing? Right, off for a beer before the game. Will check the comments section before kick-off.
Dont think it will be tonite gary! Germany are a big step up from russia! This team was being put together for this euro and the next world cup! Get it on mate!
Olimpo blanca- argentino jnrs over 2.5 goals is 13/10 bet365 I reckon this is a good bet I fancy goals in this match the away side average 2 goals in away matches.
im going 3-0 germany gomez first goal
Anyone seen any decent prices on a Gomez scorecast? I’m getting 1-0 gomez @ 18/1 and 2-0 Gomez @ 16/1 which is pretty pants. Looking for at least 25/1 each
Hi Chris
Betfred shop coupon
Scorecast
gomez & 1-0 is 20/1
gomez & 2-0 is 22/1
Paul forgot to tell you. Tried to put Schweinsteiger on for first and last goal at 2am this morning online and I got a message stating maximum stake £3.92! I phoned them to place the bet but never mentioned anything to them. They seid please hold for clearance as I was doing first and last. They went away for 7 mins then came back and told me bets were on.
Ozil for motm is poor also, price ranging from 5/2, 11/4, 3/1 etc. think I’ll have a wee £30 flutter on Schweinsteiger motm @ 9/1 with Paddy Power (if they allow me to!)
Chris, my man is leaving as I said so I’ll need to find another contact there but they obviously worried about you.
Alan thanks for the scorecast prices, those are a little better. Schweinsteiger is generally available at 5/1. I don’t imagine there will be more than 2 goals so with backing him first and last ill hopefully have him covered if he scores in the game. Also I have the chance of getting my £50 that I put on him first and last being refunded if Gomez scores first.
Just heard Gomez may be rested tonight!!!……surely not.
Wind up maybe???
David, I’d be amazed if he was rested. It’s not as if they don’t need to win.
Are you having a giraffe lol
No way, Gonez will want golden boot and Greece will be a golden opportunity to add a few goals to his tally.
David there could be some truth in this because I just checked oddschecker and his price for first goal has been cut with every bookmakers.
i seen something on twitter about that, surely no tho!!! feckin better be playin lke cos aw ma bets are basically on him scoring
Craig, if he doesn’t you’ll at least get your money back so we’ll need to all watch the teams news so we can back someone else.
Klose motm is 7/1 with Stan james. He has been cut to 3/1 with Ladbrokes
Hopefully not Ive done a tenner on Gomez 2-0.
I’ve also done Gomez top scorer with Germany to win it.
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/euro/germany-greece-413773.html.
This has the teams, klose starting instead of gomez ffs, hope they are wrong
Craig, I hope so too. Surely can’t be resting him, must have kept an injury quiet.
I have picked Gomez first scorer and Gomez 1-0 / 2-0 forecasts, what happens if / when it is confirmed Gomez is not starting? DOes the bet stand? I did the coupon in store
Andy, if he doesn’t play they will revert to correct score singles.
I have goalscorer bets on Muller,Podolski and Gomez! Lol. Would my bets b refunded if the 1st goal was scored and these guys weren’t on the park? Also,wot would happen with Paddy Powers refunds on Gomez? This could get messy
Jonathan, some firms void bets if a player doesn’t start, some void them if they aren’t on the pitch when the first goal is scored. The Paddy Power moneyback special wouldn’t exist anymore.
its not just ma bets paul, fantasy fitbaw team was aw planned out to final now thats tits up
Craig, I just read a piece from Germany suggesting they are resting Gomez, Podolski and Muller. But no confirmation.
like the look of ladbrokes what will happen first a goal to be scored 9/4
Danny, what will happen first … a goal scored or we all rip up our first-scorer coupons. Will be a real anti-climax if Gomez is rested.
Paul just in at 3am an saw your comment had some business to attend to not being rude i am thinking u and chris went a bit mad on gomez thinking he was a sure thing to start only hope use wernt hit to heavy… i got down hardgate at 7.20 an was harassed aff strathclydes finest meaning i missed 9/4 first goal/stroke a luck ..william hill online at midday i did put on germany to score both halves at almost 3/1 in turn is all going on spain/france both to score very confident indeed
Danny, all my bets on Gomez were refunded, however, once again it shows why we should wait until teams are announced before having a bet. Having said that I don’t think anyone expected Germany to drop Gomez.
I’m assuming if Gomez comes on as a sub, all bets remain valid? If so, there are so many ifs and buts.
What if it’s 1-1 for example and the first goal has already been scored, but Gomez then comes on to try and get the winner? I assume all bets will be counted, even FGS.
1/3 looks REALLY bad now.
Gary, if Gomez comes on at 1-1 the bet is void. Some firms won’t void if he comes on at 0-0, others will void right away if he doesn’t start. There are different rules.
Bets don’t stand
Schurrle (in the hope he starts) to score and Germany to win 3/1.
I’m a bit confused about my fgs bet . If Gomez don’t start do I get a refund?
Steve, check back, I’ve answered this a few times tonight.
I hope Jogi Low is really happy with himself right now,lol. Does he not realise he’s panicked every1 on this here forum!?! Some people……
Greece to win 1-0 25/1 – Remember Euro 2004!
Klose first goalscorer?
Gomez aint starting, klose up front.
That’s my bets stuffed. Why are the resting players?!
Schurrle has a great international record. Get on him to score I’d advise.
chris,liked your corners bet -3 germany
just got 11/10 @ hills
Hope germans not taking this too lightly with no gomez muller or podolski. Still need a win!!
Joe, no way I’m taking them at 1-3. But if they make a good start it might be worth getting on.
That’s disastrous testing Gomez. I feel as though I’ve lost already or at least an uphill struggle. I didn’t take the 7/1 for Klose motm as I wanted to confirm the team lineups now they have cut him to 4/1.
Only positive thing is Schweinsteiger will prob hit the penalties. I feel for those who have backed Gomez at anytime as I’m sure he’s likely to take part at some point.
The money back Special with Paddy Power on Gomez reverts to 0-0 if Gomez does not play. This is a crap offer.
Also poor show from Ladbrokes who are keeping their mbs as Podolski as they normally change this.
I agree 1/3 is now a horrendous price and I think Gernany may just scrape this game 1-0.
Chris, to be fair to bookies they’ll have been caught on the hop just as punters have been. I just hope no one loses out of this, like for example if Gomez comes after 80 minutes and does in the anytime scorers.
OK, Chris and everyone else. Let’s change the mood a bit. I’ll give £25 to the person who predicts when Gomez will come on. Please give your guess in minutes and seconds. You can take won’t come on as your answer. If more than one person has the same time or no to coming on it will be decided by a random draw. No entries accepted after 8pm (hopefully he’s not on by then).
£50 reluctantly fired on Klose at 4/1 with Betfred for dd hh. Betfred are obviously slow off the mark as they still have Gomez as 3/1 fav. I’d imagine they will cut the odds do be quick if your putting it on. Talking about an anti climax to a game
Chris, it’s disappointing and there wasn’t any indication Low would be doing this. I think I’ll transfer my thoughts to Klose but hopefully it will be Schweinsteiger who scores first.
Just done 10 on schurrle @8/1. N 55 Germany-1goal@10/11. Seemingly these players have come in Will improve the Germans going forward. cd be wow. !!!we Will c
Gerrys 2:0 5/1 & Klose 1st goal 4/1 my bets
Yeah Paul I’ll get my £100 back for Gomez but didn’t want to fire it all on Klose so just put £50 on him incase. I’m still wanting Schweinsteiger first and last as I have £50 on each at 14/1. He should be hitting the penalties. I also have £30 Schweinsteiger. To
Be honest with this line up I’ll be happy of my 1-0 or 2-0 comes up cos I’ll make about £300 profit just on the correct score. You don’t think the Greeks will score do you? I’m very surprised they are resting Gomez especially when Ronaldo scored another goal last night.
78:42
Chris, you’ve won something anyway. Gomez came on in 79:09 so it’s £25 for you. Send your address to [email protected] and I’ll get you £25 at the end of the tournament.
Stuck a wee score on klose, had to be done.
Gomez on in tge 67th minute, wee bit early but they may.need him
Gomez to come on after 66 mins – if everyone is still playing this Paul?
Thomas, people are playing but can you give me an exact time in mins and secs.
67.19 :)
Tough one paul if germany struggle he could come on early, if they pummell them he may not come on. Think lowe will give him bit of time tho just to keep him sharp so i’ll go 75.00.
Joe, they’re looking OK at the moment.
80:01
Gomez on at half time 45.01
65.26 mins
62.35
60:13 for Gomez on,
Come in guys I need more corners! Got a lot riding on corners ha!
70.10 mins for Gomez to come on
Just in…bets r….
Klose 1st goal 4/1
Germany 2-0 6/1
Klose 2-0 20/1
Good luck all
Ynfirtunately can’t watch game as on my way to work. Only an 11hr shift this time. Keep an eye out for motm guys.
58:14
65 m12 s
i need 13 corners for £305
looks like th gerrys will need to get them all!
Scott, I said earlier that Greece might get no corners but surely they’ll have to push up a little bit after the break.
66 mins dead for Gomez- probably missed it now though!
Thomas, he’s not come on obviously so I’ll accept all entries received so far. No more please.
I’m in the same boat Scott as many as possible! I’ve got over 10 over 11 over 12 and over 13 ha do 14 would be ideal!
Got it cheers Paul . Bookies probably done well on a lahm first goal
Steve, dunno. I had Lahm (but it was for my tea).
2 right george
think your over 10 will be ok
What are peoples thoughts for 2nd half bets?? :D
Has to be at least one more goal for the Germans and next goal why not Schurrle.
Ozil 12/1 next goal.
5 on Ozil and 5 on khedira next goal
David, stuck £25 on Schurrle to score next and 2-0 Germany, 10-1 Skybet. Getting back all my Gomez bets and Ronaldo wins burning a hole in my accounts.
ozil @ 12s looks good
your right paul they might not get a corner
had a saver today on germany -3
Hahahahahaha I’ve got money on Germany too but you’ve gotta laugh
Had £46 on Portugal last night, all £82.80 on Germany to win to nil today. First and last time I’ll be doing that bet! Was originally going to opt for Germany -1 on handicap but changed my mind! Now hope Germany don’t win by more than one!
me too george but could be good for th corners
Aww man, that wasnt the next goal haha. Ah well
Glad I did not follow “mrfixit”
Paddy, you’re an idiot. My main bet was Gomez and he wasn’t playing. I was very confident about a Germany victory and that’s what we have. A fluke Greek goal beat the win to nil.
Glad i didnt come in talking shit with a made up name “paddy mcginty”
Yeah because just about everyone thought Greece would score paddy :|
Oh there’s always one.
Kenny, I’m afraid there always is one. I’d quite happily take stick if I’d tipped Greece to win or draw but I didn’t. 1-3 Germany was very short and we were all looking for other ways to get some value.
An idiot? Charming.
Paddy, sorry but you asked for it. We’ve had a few good days on the site recently and you come on out of nowhere with a snidey comment.
shite how gomez comes on for 10 mins and thats the wincast down. cld still get 1 but tempos died down
Asked for it? Doubt it.
Calm down a bit – regardless how many good days you have had.
Paddy, what exactly is your problem. Germany won, we were all on that and tried some other bets too.
Germany portugal dble up cheers paul had a fair lump on it. Waiting on spain tomorrow for treble as well.
Joe, for me Portugal and Germany were as close to bankers as you get. Spain v France much tougher to call.
I had -2 handicap argh!!!!
I also had Germany – 2 Goals at 5/2 so that penalty was a kick in the teeth. Despite that, it was a good night. I had the Portugal/Germany double at 6/4 with McBookie and a good bit on Germany – 1 Goal at 21/20 so it wasn’t all that bad.
James, at least Germany won for us all. I didn’t see many people tipping a high scorer and interesting to see it’s the second highest scorer of all time in Euro finals.
It was a good night all round for punters you’re right Paul. I’m just a frustrated that minus 2 goals was up with just a few minutes left to play. That’s the joys of punting eh. We roll on. I doubt I will be punting tomorrow night, I bet Spain on the outrights at 3/1 so hopefully they will prevail against the French, who were shocking against Sweden.
James, think ref felt sorry for the Greeks with that soft penalty so you were unlucky. Tomorrow could go either way if France are at their best. But my feeling is Spain will edge it. But as you say don’t think I’ll do much punting on it. Will collect my Portugal/Germany double winnings and my Ronaldo/Gomez first scorer double that’s ended a single and use that.
2 corners short for my double
glad i backed germany -3
thanks to chris & yourself
Scott, that -3 corners was a decent bet. This is hard to believe but earlier my son was looking at his Euro 2012 cards and I asked him who would score first tonight. He said he would pick a card and leave it for me. I’ve just looked and it’s Lahm! I can’t believe it. And he says I owe him some money for getting it right.
Paddy, do everyone a favour mate, and do one! you’re boring, and your criticism is uncalled for as Paul has had a very good tournament to date! Clearly lost a penny, maybe two, so go drown your sorrows and bore someone else!
Can you ask your son to do the same for tomorrows game and Sundays!?!
Luke, either that or I’ll get a pet octopus.
reckon he’s right paul
time to pay out!
Scott, I wish I had done it. He only took Lahm because he had a toy lamb that he never let go of when he was wee.
Mr Fixit get your son to pick one for tomorrow – could do with a 16’s+ winner.
I, like a few folk, had Germany -2 tonite
Kyle, I’ll ask him for a laugh. Lahm was 33-1 as well.
Kyle, I asked the boy who he thought would score first in Spain v France and quick as a flash he replied “David Silva”. Why? “Because he is a good player”. So there you have it. If he’s wrong I’m going to swap him for an octopus.
Yeah if you have a problem then stay away from the site. Yeah we are all disappointed but it has nothing to do with mr fixit. It’s the Manager that put out the team. I lost about £300 and you don’t see me crying. Tomorrow is another day.
I’m sure if you ask everyone who uses this site the majority of people will tell you that Mr Fixits tips have been very profitable not only in Euro 2012 but throughout the year. Long may it continue.
Paul that’s very kind of the £25 cheers mate. I’ll email you my address. Hopefully we can get a few winners tomorrow to claw back some money. I feel gutted Paul because I was going to bet £10 on Lahm first goal at 64/1 with betfair but got distracted with getting team news etc and simply forgot all about it.
Chris and everyone thanks for backing me over Paddy. Wonder if it’s that guy Tony who didn’t get picked for the Euro 2012 contest in disguise?
Delighted with that tonight, the bet I highlighted at 9/10 weeks ago on Germany reaching the semis looked too good considering their path and the odds everywhere else. Also got my double with Portugal.
Marc, I remember that. Germany have been my picks to win all along and showed good strength in depth tonight. Right, away for a beer before the bar shuts then a final look at Spain v France bets.
how got MOM lads?
Looking at Spain, time of first goal under 26 mins @ 17/10 with tote. 11/8 everywhere else. If you think the first goal will come later then 21/10 for first goal in the second half also good.
Paul what do you reckon for Spain game and England game under 2.5 goals @ 15/8 and 13/8 returns approx £250 for £100 stake. Was considering lumping £200 on the double. What do you reckon.
Chris, if I had to pick under or over in both I’d go under. But there have been a few exceptions to the rule in this tournament and last night’s game was a perfect example. I don’t think the prices are good enough.
ozil got MOM tom, changed captain to him from gomez once saw team in fantasy fitba
I’m thinking of most goals in second half at 6/5 I reckon it’s gonna be a slow burner
George, both quarters so far have gone that way and I agree with you about the France v Spain game.
Paul just read the newsletter that was emailed. you can get 6/4 for Balotelli to be booked with Paddy Power and a few others and what about Balotelli first booking 10/1 @ Sportingbet
Chris, they are decent prices. Obviously with the newsletter all prices quoted are from Skybet.
Well done Scott on the corners bet! I normally don’t do ‘big’ stakes but couldn’t resist putting £25 on it! 10-1 it finished, should’ve went -8!!
Chris, didn’t realise Greece got one. Actually they scored more goals than corners awarded. Amazing.