Germany v Denmark, Lviv, Sunday, 7.45pm
Holland v Portugal, Kharkiv, Sunday, 7.45pm
PUNTERS will be probably still be in shock when the Group B deciders kick off tonight.
The climax to Group A was extraordinary with the Czech Republic and Greece knocking out co-hosts Poland and much-fancied Russia.
I didn't see one tip for either on the site yesterday and Russia's defeat and ultimately exit was a huge surprise.
As someone said yesterday Group A finished upside down and mathematically Group B bottom dogs Holland could stiill qualify.
I promises to be another night of thrills but I can't see Germany not making it through. They need a point against Denmark to seal top spot and a quarter-final against Greece.
The way they've played so far suggests the Germans will win well but it must be at the back of their minds that they could draw and make sure Holland were eliminated.
The Dutch must beat Portugal by at least two goals and hope Denmark lose to qualify on head to heads involving all three sides.
Can you imagine how Germany would feel if the Dutch went through and the sides then met in the Final. So it's a tough one and either way I can't see the Germans busting a gut. A 1-0 would suit them fine unless Holland are winning easily.
Germany are new tournament favourites at 5-2 (various) following the Group A finish. Spain, who face a likely last-eight clash against England, are 12-5 at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. France come in at 15-2 with bet365 and England are now fourth favourites at a biggest 12-1 with Paddy Power.
At the end of the day you've got to fear the Dutch won't even beat Portugal going by their form so far. Much-maligned Bert van Marwijk hasn't started either Klaas Jan Huntelaar or Rafael van der Vaart and so far has paid the price. I'd imagine both will start, at the expense of Ibrahim Afellay and Mark van Bommel, as the Dutch go for goals.
However, it could be too late for van Marwijk and with Portugal, who have lost one of their last 10 against Holland, needing to avoid defeat or match Denmark's score to book their slot I'm on them to qualify at 4-9 (various).
Holland are out to 28-1 to win the tournament and 6-1 with bet365 and Paddy Power to qualify. The Danes are 11-4 (various).
Cristiano Ronaldo is first-scorer favourite at 11-2 with Skybet but left his shooting boots in Madrid – no goals in 10 attempts.
Is he due one? Definitely but then we said the same about Russia's Alexandr Kerzakhov and he's left the tournament without a goal.
So for first scorer have a swatch at Helder Postiga who netted a belter in the win against Denmark. He is 9-1 and at that price is also worth a look at 3-1 to score at anytime.
Portugal are 13-8 at Skybet as are the Dutch with the draw 12-5. And draw no bet Portugal is worth a go at 1-1 with William Hill.
Robin van Persie got off the mark in the defeat to the Germans and is 6-1 to bag the opener. If the Dutch go for it there should be goals and consider both to score at 4-7 (various).
Over 2.5 pays 8-11 and I fancy a scoring draw, possibly 2-2.
But if it's going wrong for Holland expect more mayhem and as they become frustrated I could see the Dutch seeing a red. A sending-off in the game pays a best 5-2 at Ladbrokes.
Germany can only fail to qualify with a heavy defeat and I'd imagine Joachim Low will make some changes to rest players in the run-up to the quarter-finals.
There could be a start for prolific striker Miroslav Klose but check teams news before having a bet. I'll be looking at Klose at 11-2 with bet365 and Paddy Power for first scorer but only if Golden Boot favourite Mario Gomez doesn't start.
Gomez, who has netted three goals against Portugal, and Holland, is 5-1 at BetVictor and worth taking if he's on from kick-off.
Niclas Bendtner netted two for the Danes in their defeat to Portugal and is 9-1 at bet365 and Paddy Power.
Germany are no bigger than 4-6 with Coral and Stan James and it could be risky depending on their mindset and how Holland are faring.
Denmark are a best 5-1 (various) with the draw, being tipped by many because it suits both, 13-5 at Skybet.
This might be one to leave alone before kick-off then get involved in-running as the two games develop.
Recommendations
Portugal draw no bet
(1-1, William Hill)
Portugal v Holland red card
(5-2, Ladbrokes)
Gomez to score first
(5-1, BetVictor)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Paul what do you think about time of first booking? Germany game under 29 mins at 5/6 and Holland game under 27 mins at 5/6. Was thinking about doing the double.
Chris, first of all I’d look at the ref stats. Secondly, I’d prefer the Dutch game to the German on. Germany could start tamely because a draw could put both through whereas the Dutch are going to come flying out the traps. Having said that in any game all it takes is a rash tackle or a handball and you have your yellow. Could happen in the first minute or 27th minute.
Paul fun and games with paddy power again. I managed to stick £100 on a first scorer and £50 on a last scorer yesterday which as we know lost. I just deposited £100 into my paddy power account and placed £50 on Postigs first goal. I then tried to place £50 on him last goal and it told me maximum stake allowed would be £12.49. I phoned them and asked to put £50 on and they told me they could only put on £40 and I’d have to phone after 9pm to speak with the traders for my other £10. I tried to place the other £10 online and it said maximum stake for this selection 42p. Do they just make itbup as they go along?
Chris, I don’t know how they make the decisions regarding your account. If you’ve lost you’d thing they’d be happy to take your bets on. I know it’s not the point but at least they saved you some money. I think you need complain big style and we’ll see if we can get some answers.
Couldn’t be bothered spending any more brine on it so I just stuck the £10 on first scorer which they accepted. £60 first and £40 last it’s a strange old world. Stakes refunded if Vsn Persie scores at anytime.
“Have a swatch..”
Hahaha!
i can’t see germany taking it easy tonight especially after last night. what would happen if say denmark won and portugal won as 3 teams on 6 points wouldve beat each other, if its gl difference what happens wi identical gls scorrd and against
Craig, there are a few other criteria such as head to heads between two of the three teams until eventually it is decided on UEFA co-efficient, then Fair Play then drawing lots.
Totally agree Craig the Germans are far superior than the Danes and I can’t see past a win. Not sure what happens but I don’t think the Dutch will win either I’m thinking of having Germany/Germany ht/ft and both teams to score in the Portugal v Holland game in a double.
just had a look at wiki euro12, apparantly if scores are identical they go to a pen shootout or the higher ranked team go thro, bit complicated but would lke to see either denmark or holland joining germany, ronaldos just far too greedy for me. think i’ll just stick 2-2 on get £ bak if RVP scores anytime
Craig, I have a list of criteria from a to i but there is no penalty shoot-out.
Paul I have complained. I’ve been a customer with them for 9 years. They told me its the traders decision which is final and that they don’t need to give any reason for it.
Chris, I’ll speak to my contact see what he thinks.
Kevin the psychic chicken predictions. Watch the video.
http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/4328/kev-the-psychic-chicken-from-kiev/2012/06/17/3180094/kev-the-psychic-chicken-from-kiev-predicts-euro-2012-denmark
germany holland double 5/1 pricegasm – ill have a cheeky wee fiver on that, cheers paddy :)
Ok here are the referee stats
Germany vs Denmark
Ref: Carlos Velasco Carballo
Total games in 2011/2012 = 11
Total yellows = 53
Total reds = 2
Total 55 cards in 11 games which is averaging 5 cards per game.
Holland vs Portugal
Ref: Nicola Rizzoli
Total games in 2011/2012 = 11
Total yellows = 49
Total reds = 2
Total cards 51 which is averaging at almost 5 cards per game.
I might just put the double on
Chris, both refs giving out higher than average cards so go for it.
Dont think the Germans give a s%it what goes on elsewhere…I’d doubt idf theyd take their foot of the gas…widna worry about their minset…..
Guy, there’s a fierce rivalry between Germans and Dutch. I think they’d rather see them go out now.
£120 double pays £403.20 so profit of £283.20 if it comes up.
I agree Germany have nothing to fear incase Denmark. Although yesterday was a bad day for everyone it might actually work in our favour for tonight’s game. Can’t see Germany taking their foot off the gas especially when you look at what happened to Russia
If Klose starts I’ll be jumping on Klose man of the match at 7/1 with Bet365. He is only 7/2 with Paddy Power.
Postiga man if the match 10/1 maybe a wee double then
I fancy germans also. Think of it this way if germany make it to final and dutch went thru in 2nd (playing the czechs in quarter final), germans would probably be playing winner of spain holland semi final. Spain could get knocked out or at very least get hard game which would suit germans. Also dont think germans will take chance but best advice is from paul and wait to see how game starts off and bet live.
For the same reasons as germany game the spain game has strange odds. Draw is as short as 8/5 which has pushed spain out to 4/5. Im having some of that so germany spain double for me
it was the eoro 12 wikipedia i looked at paul, group stage criteria no.7 but it will probably never come to it with all the criteria having to be exactly the same. its the kind of thing that would happen to scotland if we ever make a tourney again wi the higher ranked team goin thro,and thats a big if at that.
Craig, I can’t seen any mention of pens anywhere. No.7 in the criteria I have is UEFA co-efficient which of course would KO Scotland if it ever came down to that. Maybe next time with 24 teams in the finals. We’ll be the Ireland of 2016.
Gomez is 11/8 to score anytime with BetVictor. Decent price given he’s red hot just now.
CHRIS GUY BETS
U can still get 11/4 for a spain germany final with VC. Just put a fair lump on it altho I took 10/3 with skybet as no VC account but still a good price i think.
What do you recon for Germany and Holland both to qualify?
Nick, Germany should be fine. As I’ve said Holland have a lot to do and I can’t see them making it. But after what happened with Greece you can’t write them off.
Lots of speculation that gomez will be dropped in favour of klose tonight. Looks the same tomorrow with negredo or llorente replacing torres.
Joe, yeah I mentioned that might happen. If Klose starts instead of Gomez take him for first scorer. I expect del Bosque to make changes with so many top players having had little or no game time.
I have to disagree with anyone who thinks Holland will struggle. Portugal are pi$$ poor if you have looked at their form and watched them. As overrated as they come because if the Ronaldo factor. I felt Holland were outstanding against Denmark and only lost because of their finishing. Would have won that match 9 times out of 10. Portugal will try and defend then bottle it when they concede I see this as at least a 2 goal victory for the Dutch but good luck in whatever you do folks.
Ryan, you are welcome to your opinion but so far Portugal have been better than Holland. I’m a big fan of the Dutch and would love to see them get through but I fear the worst with all the problems surrounding the squad.
Well Ruan for the sake of my bets, I hope you’re wrong lol.
Paul what do you think about Klose motm at 7/1
Chris, if he starts he’ll be out to make an impression so must have a chance.
Gonna side with Ryan here, all fun and games and only a bit of money ha, but I can see holland pulling this out te bag an winning by 2, what have they got to lose!
George, at least some people will win tonight with the different opinions. Last night everyone lost.
What happened last night?
That’s my way of forgetting losing a bag of money ha, in my eyes there was no June 16th haha
Paul gone for the following bets:
£60 Postiga first goal @ 9/1
£40 Postiga last goal @ 9/1
£120 double on Germany game first booking under 29 mins @ 5/6 and Holland game first booking under 27 mins.
£100 on a player to be send off in Holand game @ 11/4.
£50 Klose motm if he starts @ 7/1
£100 Klose/Gomez first goal @ 5/1
£50 Klose/Gomez last goal @ 5/1
£10 double on Klose/Gomez and Postiga first Goalscorer double.
Good luck everyone.
Chris, I hope you get a couple up. It’s a long wait to next pay day. I want to see teams before finalising my picks.
I know Paul I need something mate
18:55Denmark: 1-Stephan Andersen; 6-Lars Jacobsen, 3-Simon Kjaer, 4-Daniel Agger, 5-Simon Poulsen; 8-Christian Eriksen, 19-Jakob Poulsen, 7-William Kvist, 21-Niki Zimling, 9-Michael Krohn-Dehli; 11-Nicklas Bendtner /// Germany: 1-Manuel Neuer; 15-Lars Bender, 14-Holger Badstuber, 5-Mats Hummels, 16-Philipp Lahm; 7-Bastian Schweinsteiger, 6-Sami Khedira; 13-Thomas Mueller, 8-Mesut Ozil; 10-Lukas Podolski; 23-Mario Gomez.
Ah well, no Klose. It’s Gomez first scorer for me then. Huntelaar and van der Vaart start as expected for Holland so I’ve got to go with Huntelaar.
cant see past the gerrys or dutch tonite
went for ht/ft double
90 mins double
-1 double
also got furyk @33s westwood @14s els @80s
could be a good nite
good luck all
Scott, good night so far although it could easily be 2-2 or 3-3 in the Holland game already. Pity the golf’s so late because I’d have loved to watch the climax live with three of my players involved.
Yeah Paul going big on Gomez myself for first and last. Since Klose not playing I put my £50 on Huntelaar first goal as a side bet
Uan presie to score in 90mins and holland to win gomez to score in 90mins germany to win . 20 pound double pays 352 pound. The germans dont care about the dutch. All big hitters are in.
Paul just nipped out to pick up my dinner and seen 5/2 in hills for Germany to win and Gomez to score anytime?
Is it worth another ton?
Chris, sorry missed your comment, did you take it?
No mate never took it
Could have been an expensive dinner! Why oh why didn’t Holland play Van der Vaart earlier.
DISASTER
Ah the perils of first-scorer betting. Think I’ll get on the overs, both games look full of goals.
Not even a booking in site. Only bets left are Gomez last goal, Postiga last goal and the sending off
Chris, it’s the peril of putting a lot of bets on one game. The only game I’ve gone mad in is Spain v Ireland and I might do the same sort of bets for Italy v Ireland.
Loads of goals tonite paul. Dutch defence getting ripped by ronaldo!
Dutch are creaking like Davie Weir’s legs.
stayed clear of both the games tonight opted for a 5team accumulator earlier today which boosted my paddys account to £52.39 happy with that for today see what tomorrow brings
paul you were ridght
Craig, a long way to go mate.
Couple of 2nd hlaf bets
Ronaldo next scorer 8/1 bet365
Gomez next scorer 5/1 boylesports
Tell u what chris i dunno about germany game but how there wasnt a booking in dutch game i dont know. Should have been at least two before half hour maybe refs are being encouraged to keep cards in pocket?
Cool as you like ronaldo haha thnx to ray winstone for at 1.
David, good shout with Ronaldo. Happy I took Portugal to qualify over the Dutch who have been poor again after a great start.
Portugal 2-1 up let’s hope holland get a player sent off then
Can’t believe Gomez substituted. Absolute bollocks!!!!
£50 Postiga last goal and £50 Gomez last goal and both players substituted. What’s the point?
Reckon the coaches are out to get you. I’m afraid it’s another problem with taking last scorers. It’s a bet I rarely do, I’d rather back a player to score next as David Paterson did with Ronaldo.
Cheers Paul, just seen it on the half time adverts and thought it was really good odds for him to score. £80 profit so av withdrew £60 and put £10 e/w on colsaerts on the golf a player a pit in my 3 during your competition. 20/1
what were Germany thinking about playing at walking pace for the whole 2nd half when they were pobviously streets ahead of the Danes…12 mins left Denmark shooda had a pen and a winner would have sent the Deutchers home….man, it seems coaches/teams never learn. always expect the unexpected and go at it 100%!!!
Chris, it was my big fear with the Germans tonight but as you say they nearly blew it.
maybe a bit negative there haha cmon the soaniah get me some £ bak
Holland were a big let down all tournament.
Almost backed them pre competition, glad i went with Germans instead…
Andy, what a waste of talent. Great individual players but no team spirit. Needs an experienced boss to go in there and give them a shake.