DOUBLE lost by one point on the total last night. It’s Turkey day in the US so we get three NFL games to feast on.
Veteran Redskins tight end Vernnon Davis will get the start over the injured Jordan Reed, and that should see a big volume for Davis again. The Giants have been awful at stopping tight ends this season. A league-high 10 touchdowns, along with 59 receptions (tied for third-most) and 752 receiving yards (also third-most). Davis has averaged 5.3 catches for 68.3 yards on 7.8 targets in the four games Reed has missed this season.
The LA Chargers opened up as 1 point dogs in Dallas and quickly shifted to -2.5 favourites. That shows the sharps think LA are better than their record suggests, and I agree. They have a relatively ‘easy’ schedule over the next couple of weeks and face a Dallas side who are starting to realise who they are without their star running back.
Carson Wentz and the Eagles stumbled in the first half on Sunday night, but destroyed them in the second half, and Dallas now face a Chargers team who have won 4 of their last 6. With Kansas, Oakland and Denver all looking off the boil, LA will have confidence.
They have weapons all over the field with Rivers under center, Gordon in the backfield, tight end Hunter Henry, with a dangerous receiver group. They only lost against Philly by two points, and should have beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Dallas will be boosted by getting their all-pro tackle back in Tyron Smith. The Cowboys have given up twelve sacks over the past two weeks without him, compared to only four sacks in the four games prior to Smith’s injury.
Dallas will still be without their defensive foundation in Sean Lee. Without Lee they have been chewed up on the ground, so expect Gordon to have a nice Turkey day, and possibly the Turkey at the end of the game if LA can get the win. It’ll be tough on the road but its certainly not out of the question.
Dallas will have to impose their running game to keep Rivers off the field, and that should be the game-plan. LA have been at the bottom end of the rush defense statistics all season, and with Smith back they’ll be able to open up the book a bit more. Alfred Morris will be the beneficiary of Zeke’s absence. Over 238.5 Total Rushing Yards looks like it could be a good bet here, but I’m going to take a risk on LA to get the W in Dallas. The Chargers haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 1969, whereas the Cowboys play almost every year. Play for the occasion.
- Vernon Davis (Redskins) Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (1.30am)
- (8-11, bet365– 5.5 points
- LA Chargers ML (9.30pm)
- (17-20, – 2 points