LAST Saturday's Top Treble won at 11-2 thanks to Man Utd, Luton and Albion Rovers and I was tempted to throw in Luton again.
I expect them to come out on top at Lincoln at just under evens but I wonder how a hectic schedule affects sides such as Luton who struggled to keep Barnet at bay on New Year's Day.
It's FA Cup weekend – and we know what that means. Weakened teams, sides with other priorites and upsets. Big accumulators should be avoided at all costs and remember it's not just sides such as Man City and Chelsea who'll rotate players – most clubs fighting for titles, promotion or beat relegation will do so as well.
One side who I believe will take the contest seriously are Everton whose boss Roberto Martinez won the Cup with Wigan last season.
The Toffees will rest players but visitors QPR, whose boss Harry Redknapp has been complaining about injuries, are likely to be more weakened and less interested with a return to the Premier League their sole concern.
QPR have lost seven cup-ties in a row against a club from a higher division and while Everton are no bigger than 4-11 that's fine on a treble.
I could have done an FA Cup treble but I'm still collating teams news and plan to post what I find later so instead I'm going to League Two and backing a Newport side who are extremely strong at home.
They've won seven out of nine and lost just once so should be too strong for basement boys Northampton who have won just once on the road and have lost their last two without scoring.
Last week I backed Albion Rovers against Queen's Park and taking Clyde to see off the Spiders this weekend. Clyde are closest chasers to leaders Peterhead who are the only side to beat them in the league in recent weeks.
Queen's put up a fight at Cliftonhill but that's six defeats in a row and they are 13 points adrift at the foot of the table.
Remember to comment on the end of this article for a chance to win a £10 free bet with Betway. Win-draw-win bets only (no handicaps, overs, btts, etc) and quote odds please. No non-league except Conference Premier and if you go obscure let me know the results.
Top Treble
Everton
Newport
Clyde
Pays enhanced 7-2 at Betway.com
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Good tip Mr F.
My treble for Saturday is:
MAN CITY
LUTON
NEWPORT
pays 4.07 @ Bet365
Motherwell at 23/20
Ayr at 23/10
Annan at 6/5
All with Betway
Ipswich
Stranraer
Clyde
4967/1000 on betway
My treble for tomorrow is, motherwell ,newport and newcastle, it pays 5.73/1 on hills.
Newport ,Doncaster and Southampton.. Loads of mention of Motherwell so will have another look
Aston Villa @ 1.45
Liverpool @ 1.12
Newcastle @ 1.65
Treble pays 2.68
From the way I do my research I’d suggest steering well clear of Motherwell
Deano, you need to expand on that. On current form it has to be Motherwell and form is the first criteria you should look at.
Looking at Newport & Motherwell as singles for now
Everton @ 2/5
Clyde @ 7/10
Man City @ 3/10
all with Betway
Morton
Brighton
Everton
8.57/1
Try me –
Newcastle
Wigan
Ballymena (N/Ireland)
Dover Athl. (England Conf. South)
Rhyl (Wales)
pays $140.4 to a $10 stake on Nairastake.
Add Hercules and Numancia – Spain Segunda Div., and my Super Single Leyton Orient to the above
for an 8-fold.
Pays $1063.7 to a $10 stake on
Nairastake.
Sorry i’m Nigerian, and believe me, even with our greed we always, perhaps most times,
win. Thank me later. Lol…
I think these games are good hope u win
Watford to beat Bristol City
Barnsley to beat Coventry
Hull to beat Middlesborough
Treble pays 14.11/1 @ William Hill
Everton, Leeds, Villa 3.62 @ betway
Chelsea, Bournemouth & Newport.
Treble pays 3.68/1 at betway.
Betway treble – Forest, Liverpool and Newport – 3.82
Sheffield United to beat A Villa 11/2
Bournemouth to beat Burton Albion 1/2
Everton to beat QPR 2/5.
Combined odds of 12.65/1 with Bill Hill.
Bournemouth, Ipswich , Wigan . 4.59 @ betway
Glad I cashed out of wolves!
Mr F I’ll explain the Motherwell decision in another post
Super single. Cardiff 9/2 Geordies playing reserves bluebirds wil want to impress the baby faced assassin .
Super patent Cardiff 5.5. Hull 3.2. Ipswich 1.85. Or ur personal even money pick instead Ipswich treble pays 45/1. Value ……..
I’ll be mr fix it’s best friend and new super tipsters come sat night …..
Good luck peeps worth 1pt minimum
Mr F, what do you think about
Motherwell
Manchster City
Atletico Madrid
as treble?
misafir, first 2 are fine – I haven’t really looked at the foreign games on Saturday, just not had time. I did read a stat last week about Atletico winning I think 2 out of 12 of their first games in the new year so I’d be slightly wary.
Sry peeps treb 30/1
Man City 3/10
West Brom 7/10
Sunderland 7/20
2/1 Treble (Betway)
Misafir that is a great treble. What does that pay mate?
Alex that pays 4,23 but as Mr F said I am conderned about Atletico
Ipswich, Newcastle, Wigan
4.05/1 @ betway
Just a word of warning regarding Newport, if the Oxford game wouldnt have been postponed on Wednesday they would have been forced to play defender Andy Sandell in goal as both keepers were injured, first choice keep broke his thumb and second choice was also injured. No guarantee they have a fit keeper for tomorrow.
Lenners, keep us updated that one. Won’t be backing them without a keeper.
Mr F, this week starting on Monday is the first week I’ve really been putting up consistent tips, one everyday that is. On Monday my treble won, on Tuesday my treble won, on Wednesday my 4 fold won, on Thursday Rangers let down my treble by one goal and tonight wolves let my 4 fold down but I’d cashed out early when 3 had came in and I did mention it on here, so I’m still in plenty of profit. The ones I won were at least at odds of 3.00
The way I’ve been picking these, what I think of as successful tips, is as follows:
I have 7 criteria and at least 6 MUST be met.
This example assumes we are backing the home team.
League position: the home team MUST be higher in the league no matter who the teams are.
Bet value: not sure how you or other people work this out but I do it by using the percentage of tips on the futbol24 app times by the odds of the team. The outcome MUST be over 1.00.
I.E. Tip percentage 89% with odds of 1.50 this is 0.89 x 1.50 = 1.34. This would be backable for me.
I.E. Tip percentage 68% with odds of 1.45 this is 0.68 x 1.45 = 0.99. This would not be backable for me.
Form last 6 home games for home team, last 6 away games for away team: the home team MUST have a better form at HOME than the away team has AWAY.
Goal difference last 6 games at home for home team, last 6 away games for away team: home teams goal difference at home MUST be better than the away teams goal difference away in the last 6 games.
Last 6 head to heads: home team MUST have more wins In the last 6 head to heads than the away team. (If 6 head to heads haven’t taken place I go off however many have been played).
Futbol24 app tips: mentioned earlier the futbol24 app allows people to select who they think might win the game, I look at this and the home team MUST have been selected AT LEAST 70% of the time to even consider them.
Soccervista: soccervista rates the outcome from 1-10, the home team MUST have AT LEAST 7 to be considered.
That’s how I do it and it’s been working for me recently, using this method is why I am saying Motherwell should be avoided. Motherwell don’t meet my soccervista rating target and the head to heads between these teams in the last 6 meetings is 3 wins each. So Motherwell only meet 5 of 7 of my criteria, not the 6 needed. Also one I don’t usually consider but noticed is that on the last 6 home form table Morherwell are 7th and on the last 6 away form table Inverness are 4th.
And Motherwell will probably go and win now after all this but, I’ll steer clear.
Wow. Thanks Lenners. Was about including them in a treble of Wigan, bolton, and new port. Might go for Huddersfield then.
Top treble
Wigan 7/10
Wycombe 6/5
Nuneaton 13/10
8.60/1 @ betway
DeanoD1989. Since u so profitable, lets see ur top tips for tomorow. U cud help someone cash some.
jaemz I’ve already put my tip on here:
MAN CITY
NEWPORT
LUTON
it pays 4.07 @ Bet365
And has for the newport goal keeper issue this article here says he will play despite a broken thumb:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/newport-county-aiming-seventh-heaven-6463850
Deano, I was going to check after putting up the FA Cup team news but that’s a relief. Right, going for a beer then will post top tips after midnight.
Hi mr fix it u doing a big hitters treble this weekend
Jamboandy, haven’t put one in the Record but may think about one.
Everton 7/20
WBA 7/10
Dundee Utd 9/10
At betway
jaemz I’ve also took Mr F’s treble off this page, looks decent
Aston Villa
Leeds
Everton
3.62@ betway
Everton, Stranraer and Clyde
£44.75 to a £10 stake
southampton 1/2
wigan 17/20
bolton 21/20
9/2 treb titanbet
SUPER SINGLE – BET OF WEEKEND
HIBS 3/1 t beat Dundee UTD
I have been saying it all week
Deano, what if the head to head is historic? Promoted teams or where there has been massive upturn in fortunes through investment or new manager etc? Form over h2h surely.
I haven’t used the two sites/app you mention, but for me, democracy doesn’t work. I’ll take the considered views of a Scottish based tipster on the Scottish leagues over what Joe blogs thinks will happen in the Scottish championship.
I see the benefit in doing those sites though, it limits your pool to the more fancied sides.
Also I think limiting by league position is a bit of a limiting factor. How far into the season do you implement that? A few winning tips here in October backing teams that started poorly but picked up.
Interesting system though, and keep posting your selections, I’ll have some of your treble for tomorrow and keep a lookout.
PS deano- any other teams other than Newport meet the criteria, as they’re already on Mr F’s pick?
Cheese, that’s just my system, I’m not knocking Mr F’s tips. This week it’s worked for me.
As for H2H I only bother with matches where the H2Hs aren’t so ‘historic’.
And no element of the criteria is taken over another, not H2H over form or anything, it’s just based on meeting 6 out of 7.
And as for any other teams that meet the criteria I don’t know, I’ve only looked at 8 games for tomorrow and the 3 I’ve put on are the ones that fit
DeanoD1989, I think it’s great you have a system and if it works for you even better. I can’t fault it if it’s bringing you results but there will be exceptions to the rule. I look at head to heads but six-game form and team news is more important. On current form Motherwell will blow Inverness away – but when the game starts it’s the team who are right up for it that will win.
Atletico are a sure thing. I fancy them to win la liga. They are are a very good team. No worries!!!!
Cheers Deano, I’ll be having an eye out for your picks. Congrats on your good week.
man city
Bolton
stranraer
£10 returns £53.23 @ betway
Leeds
Watford
Peterborough
treble pays 6.68 at betway
Good points Mr F, with my method and that advice and all your other advice, I’ll be better prepared than ever
Ipswich @ 4/5
West Brom @ 7/10
Newport @ 3/4
Pays 5.36 at Betway
man city
man utd
fiorentina
2.37@betway
Wigan, Liverpool, Everton, 2.57/1 @Betway
Going with
Everton
Southampton
Clyde
Wigan
Comes in at about 7/1 going to do my usual and perm in trebled for a point each with an extra point on the acca.
Don’t see too many problems with Everton and Clyde as Mr F has said. I like Wigan, they are on a good run and have been playing nice football by all accounts. They should have too much for MK Dons from the league below. And I reckon Southampton are safe so will be out to win a fairly straightforward FA cup game at home.
Bolton 11/10
Wrexham evens
Vallodolid 13/10
@ 8.66 Betway
everton
chelsea
a.madrid
2.93@betway
Wigan
Leeds
Huddersfield
Pays 5.74/1 at betway
Going to be optimistic today in the FA cup
Leicster
Hull City
Cardiff
Treble returns 42.9/1 @betway
everton 7/20
newport 3/4
motherwell 23/20 betway
Bolton
Wigan
Norwich
6.17/1
Luton
St johnstone
Clyde
5.33 @bet365
Bournemouth
Clyde
Norwich
treble pays 5.23 @ betway
Man City
Liverpool
Chelsea
odds 2.04 with Betway
Everton 37/100
Peterborough 9/10
Luton 7/10
Everton @ 37/100
West brom @ 7/10
Clyde @ 7/10
Betway odds
Clyde 7/10
Luton 3/5
Huddersfield 3/4
Treble at 4.76
Everton
Arsenal
Wigan
4.8/1 with Betway
My treble is
EVERTON
NEWCASTLE
IPSWICH
Pays 4.07 at BETWAY
My treble is
EVERTON
NEWCASTLE
IPSWICH
Pays 4.07 at BETWAY
Got off to a flyer on new years day with my treble…
My treble today is…
Man City (-1)
Ipswich
Newport County
6.25 @ Betfair
Grimsby
Barnsley
Everton
Treble pays 14.80/1 at Betway
Bolton
Brighton
Arsenal
£ 10.00 gets you £ 80. 00 betway
Newcastle
West Brom
Leeds Utd
4.88 @ Betway
liverpool 1.12
rangers 1.17
newcastle 1.60
2.1 @betway
Betway treble
Newcastle 1.60
Arsenal 1.95
Nottm Forrest 2.05
Everton @ 1/2
Newcastle @ 1/2
West Brom @3/5
betway odds
Liverpool
Port Vale
Man Utd
3.09 @Betway
Sunderland
Chelsea
Manchester United
@2.88
Rio Ave
Chelsea
Udinese
@ 5.10