THERE'S quite a number of South American games that hold a certain level of appeal this evening but this one stands out for some potentially erroneous Paraguayan pricing from the bookmakers…
SOL DE AMÉRICA VS. 12 DE OCTUBRE
Bookies have SDA odds on favourites here but I'm not convinced; they have won just 1 of their last 5 meetings against their opponents and there's a sound combination of current and historic data to suggest their pricing may just be open to a little exploitation.
Perhaps the most interesting thing here is that ‘lowly' 12 De Octubre – after a few years in the wilderness – stand to catapult themselves into top-spot with a victory in Barrio Villa Elisa, Asunción.
Whilst the bookies don't reckon they can grab the points, I think they might well have enough but am more interested in non WDW markets relating to 12 De Octubre!
Let's look at the case for the visitors:
•SDA have won just 1 of their last 5 domestic league games
•SDA have lost their last 3 consecutive home games conceding 3 goals with no reply on each occasion
• H2H-wise, SDA lost both of the most recent meetings in 2020; a 1-3 home defeat in September and a 1-0 away defeat in August
• Historically, match-ups have invariably seen SDA conceding against tonight's opposition – their last 14 meetings having seen them concede 3-1-2-3-1-0-1-1-2-2-0-2-3-3 goals
I genuinely think the visitors have a great chance here and, as long as they don't receive the dreaded early red (one shown in all 3 of SDA's last 3 home games) I reckon they have more than enough to make a significant impact on the game.
Given all of this and fact that there has been at least one goal in the opening half of 12 De Octubre's last 7 away games, leads me to think that potentially the best value could lie in taking on the ‘goal time' and ‘team goal' markets.
12 DE OCTUBRE GOAL BEFORE 62:00
(5/6, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
12 DE OCTUBRE OVER 1.5 TEAM GOALS
(2/1, bet365) NB ⭐⭐
OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
OVER 10.5 MATCH CORNERS
(4/1, bet365) LONGSHOT ⭐