THE BAIRRO OBRERO region of Paraguay's capital City Asuncion plays host to a match featuring two sides with plenty of history between them this evening and I'm forecasting goals with some pretty solid value behind them!


It's been a mixed start to the campaign from both sides but the standout stats are based around each sides respective home and away records alongside a rich and recent head to head history.

I've written much about Cerro's home form at The Estadio General Pablo Rojas and, even for South American standards, it's a very consistent stomping ground with only 7 losses out of 37 which gives them a home win rate of 81% during that spell.

Conversely, Guarani's home form is nowhere near as consistent but what does stand out is their recent scoring record away from home. They have scored in 100% of their last 11 games including notching an impressive hatrick of goals against big-hitters Libertad just 2 weeks ago…note also that Cerro themselves only managed 2 against their Asuncion rivals the previous week!

H2H's appear to be a mixed bag for bettors when factoring in different criteria but it is something I always look at to steer my thinking – it certainly carries a lot weight in those South American leagues where teams are pitted against each other year in year out.

This match-up is a great example with the two sides facing off 32 times over the last 8 years; of interest to my selections what stands out is that 75% (24/32) of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals and 56% (18/32) saw both sides scoring!

It's still early days in the Paraguayan Division Profesional but things are starting to warm up nicely and I believe there is a great chance that simmering tensions between the barrios could well lead to a red hot game with a few goals thrown into the pot for good measure.

Recommended Bets


  • (5/6, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • OVER 2.5 GOALS

  • (21/20, bet365) NB ⭐⭐⭐

  • OVER 3.5 GOALS

  • (11/4, bet365) LONGSHOT ⭐

  1. Footiefan77 2 months ago

    Is there a reason Hull why BTTS is your Nap instead of over 2.5 goals which has better head to head stats going for it?

  2. Sammyt1000 2 months ago

    Also curious as based on stats there.. overs is the better bet btts more or less a coin flip yes or no

    • Mr Fixit 2 months ago

      Not speaking for HullShaker but it can often be a toss-up between btts and overs.

  3. HullShaker 2 months ago

    Thanks for the comments lads and thought it might pose a few questions!

    Yes, ‘overs’ is statistically more likely but those stats are painting a broader picture over a long period of time and are used just to gain a sense of perspective.

    Based on that AND more recent results/form, I think both to score offers the better value with 3 or more goals being not too far behind hence the preference of Nap and Nb.

    Hope that makes sense and good luck 👍

  4. coin 2 months ago

    Elche -zaragoza over 2.5

  5. HullShaker 2 months ago

    Jesus wept – 11 yellows and 2 reds. First Guarani red put the kybosh on things after 49 minutes when they looked good for an equaliser 😟😔

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