THE BAIRRO OBRERO region of Paraguay's capital City Asuncion plays host to a match featuring two sides with plenty of history between them this evening and I'm forecasting goals with some pretty solid value behind them!
CERRO PORTEÑO VS. CLUB GUARANÍ
It's been a mixed start to the campaign from both sides but the standout stats are based around each sides respective home and away records alongside a rich and recent head to head history.
I've written much about Cerro's home form at The Estadio General Pablo Rojas and, even for South American standards, it's a very consistent stomping ground with only 7 losses out of 37 which gives them a home win rate of 81% during that spell.
Conversely, Guarani's home form is nowhere near as consistent but what does stand out is their recent scoring record away from home. They have scored in 100% of their last 11 games including notching an impressive hatrick of goals against big-hitters Libertad just 2 weeks ago…note also that Cerro themselves only managed 2 against their Asuncion rivals the previous week!
H2H's appear to be a mixed bag for bettors when factoring in different criteria but it is something I always look at to steer my thinking – it certainly carries a lot weight in those South American leagues where teams are pitted against each other year in year out.
This match-up is a great example with the two sides facing off 32 times over the last 8 years; of interest to my selections what stands out is that 75% (24/32) of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals and 56% (18/32) saw both sides scoring!
It's still early days in the Paraguayan Division Profesional but things are starting to warm up nicely and I believe there is a great chance that simmering tensions between the barrios could well lead to a red hot game with a few goals thrown into the pot for good measure.
Recommended Bets
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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
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(5/6, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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OVER 2.5 GOALS
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(21/20, bet365) NB ⭐⭐⭐
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OVER 3.5 GOALS
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(11/4, bet365) LONGSHOT ⭐
Born and bred in Bury but now exiled to Hull: long-suffering Shakers supporter and member of Mr. Fixit's site since 2013. Football mad with a depth and breadth of knowledge including specific focus on South American football, the Icelandic Leagues and English Lower League football.
Is there a reason Hull why BTTS is your Nap instead of over 2.5 goals which has better head to head stats going for it?
Also curious as based on stats there.. overs is the better bet btts more or less a coin flip yes or no
Not speaking for HullShaker but it can often be a toss-up between btts and overs.
Thanks for the comments lads and thought it might pose a few questions!
Yes, ‘overs’ is statistically more likely but those stats are painting a broader picture over a long period of time and are used just to gain a sense of perspective.
Based on that AND more recent results/form, I think both to score offers the better value with 3 or more goals being not too far behind hence the preference of Nap and Nb.
Hope that makes sense and good luck 👍
Elche -zaragoza over 2.5
Jesus wept – 11 yellows and 2 reds. First Guarani red put the kybosh on things after 49 minutes when they looked good for an equaliser 😟😔