IT'S not often on a Saturday that I am quite limited in the number of bets that I have but today I find myself with just one strong bet that I am keen on today.

The good news is that I really like the chances of this horse and I think we could be looking at the value bet of the flat season. The horse in question is ESCOBAR in the 3.35pm at Ascot.  There is no doubt that this is a competitive handicap with horses like Raising Sand (my tip from last week), Ripp Orf, Flaming Spear and Cape Byron all holding really good chances.

My theory though is that Escobar has been aimed at this race for quite a while by David O’Meara. He ran respectably (3rd) last week at Haydock but this race is roughly 5 times more valuable in prize money than that race and it makes more sense if he has been primed for this.

Escobar runs today off the same handicap mark as his run at Goodwood in August where he had the most incredible amount of bad luck in running and despite finishing 8th I think he might actually have won that day with a clear run. The current price of 16-1 is fantastic value if he is as well handicapped as I think he might be and it is definitely worth having an each way punt to find out.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the Arc at ParisLongchamp and some other fancies.

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