I've picked out some stinkers in the last few days. Bintsaleh was another.
Maybe she's just not that good, but off an opening handicap mark that low with a horse who has a good pedigree, it's disappointing. Did the slow pace give her the best chance? I'm not sure, she fell away tamely and at no point did I feel comfortable.
Alam 4/1 (1pt) – Longchamp 7.15
This is a brilliant race for a Tuesday. We don't have the very best horses turning up, but we have some extremely good ones. I think if this race was run ten times, you'd have at least three or four different winners. It's going to come down to how the race is run and whether certain horses stay.
In my opinion, if Alam stays the trip, he has to be the one they all have to beat. He was a solid fifth in the Prix du Jockey Club, which is the best formline for these middle-distance races this year. The winner, Constitution River, won the Coral Eclipse. A Boy Named Susie (fourth), was second to Constitution River at Sandown, with Hawk Mountain (second) back in third. Daryzan is going to be a Group 1 horse in time, and he was seventh in the Prix du Jockey Club.
If you watched that race, you would have seen Alam make up a ridiculous amount of ground from the rear. The race was run to suit the horses who were sat close to the pace, hence why Montreal nearly nicked it from the front. Alam did best of the ones from the rear, and he was only three lengths behind the winner.
The pedigree from the dam's side gives hope that the extra 1.5 furlongs will suit, and I firmly believe he is the best horse in this race.
Sons And Lovers 9/4 (1pt) – Longchamp 7.50
It's a French day for the page, with my second selection also coming from Longchamp's evening meeting.
At the time of writing, Sons And Lovers is the second favourite. I think by the time the race goes off, my selection will have pushed Parachutiste away from the top spot and will be a clear favourite.
My selection comes from the Joseph O'Brien stable, which continues to pump out winners at a 33% rate over the last fortnight (16/49). He is having an incredible season, and I believe that this is a horse who will add to his tally of Class 1 victories.
I didn't think it was the strongest of races, and Sons And Lovers ran a respectable race at huge odds at Royal Ascot in a Group 2, which was worthy of being a Group 1. This return to today's longer trip has to be better for him, and I think he has a great chance.
GambleAware