It's crazy to think that an unexposed horse from the Ed Walker stable drifted out to 18/1 after being fancied in the early market to beat Silver Chamber.
Whenever a drift like that happens, especially from one of the bigger yards in the race, usually it's worth chucking your slip in the bin. Unfortunately for me, that wasn't to be the case, and that horse beat by on the line. Silver Chamber looked laboured; he was on the bridle, then off it, and then Tom Marquand looked very confident.
Mystical Storm halved in price from the 9/1 when advised, but was wheel spinning on the spot when the others were quickening. I expected a lot more, especially with market support in his favour.
Just An Hour ran a solid enough race and was beaten by better handicapped horses on the day. His day will come again, but maybe he will need his handicap mark to drop a few pounds.
Marching Mac 18/1 (0.5pt EW) – Goodwood 2.58
A lot of horses in this race are decent at this course despite not winning here, and a lot are capable of big runs on heavy ground, so it makes it a tough race to call. I was really tempted by Speed Of Maajid, who ran well in a Class 3 race at the Glorious Goodwood meeting, but that was against other three-year-olds, and maybe that's not the route to go down. Marching Mac at big odds appealed to me. He has to bounce back to form, but the return to heavy ground might be the factor.
This horse improved massively last year, mostly on ground which was soft or worse, predominantly heavy ground. He managed to win two races on heavy ground last year, one in a class 6 and the other in a class 4, which shows he does have the quality to win at this grade. On both occasions, he won by wide margins, looking like a real heavy-ground specialist.
This season has been up and down, but mostly down. His second run showcased his talents are still around, shown by finishing fourth in the Epsom Dash, which was won by Jm Jungle, who has since won a Group 2. Marching Mac has never raced at Goodwood, but he likes the quirky courses, with form at Epsom, and a win at Brighton and Newmarket.
His handicap mark is now below his last winning mark, so there is every chance he can bounce back to form with plenty of things in his favour.
Who's Glenn 8/1 (1pt) – Goodwood 4.08
Goodwood have been on the receiving end of a lot of rain over the last few days, and more is expected to fall. That should turn their soft ground into heavy, meaning this is one for the specialists with built-in armbands.
The majority of the runners handle soft ground, but when the ground gets this bad, it becomes a different beast. Who's Glen is one of the few horses in this race who has form on heavy ground, so it might be worth siding with him even on the back of two lacklustre efforts.
It's strange how his form has gone south so quickly during the second half of the summer. He started his flat season off with a second in a Class 2 at Kempton, and then a solid fifth at Chester in the Chester Cup. Both of those runs produced RPRs of 100, +7 and +8 to his handicap mark at the time. He took a 50-day break on the back of those good efforts, and has since finished 15th/20 and 8th/9, for unknown reasons. His handicap mark might be a little high, but I think nearly every horse in the race shares the same predicament.
There are definitely safer options in this race, and I liked Manxman, but he went very close in the Cesarewitch last year and is entered for the same race this year. I think that will be his end goal for that reason, and he is already on a high enough mark to qualify, so I don't think they'll want to win this, with that race before their focus.
I've been drawn in with low-weight horses in recent times, so Novelista is chalked off the list. Aggagio has solid course form, but is now a seven-year-old, and his best form in recent memory has been with a 7lb claimer on board, who is no longer riding.
GambleAware