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The run of relative no-shows continued on Saturday. Let’s see what the new week brings. I’ll be kicking things off on Tuesday with a bet at Uttoxeter, where Kerry Lee looks to have an interesting runner in the 14:42 contest, a handicap hurdle over the minimum trip.
| Uttoxeter - 14:42 |
Mister Wilson |
10/1 |
Mister Wilson will not only make his debut for Kerry Lee, but this will be his first test on British shores having previously been with Gavin Cromwell in Ireland, where he ran a few encouraging races over both timber and fences. Over the smaller obstacles on Tuesday, he could quite easily make an impact, and here’s why:
Third in a hurdle race far from dissimilar to this on his penultimate start in Ireland, the gelding who won a more competitive race than this at Listowel last season has some interesting form in the book.
Following his Listowel win last season, the gelding went on to finish third in a novice event at Bellewstown, where he finished behind a couple of subsequent runners, both of whom are rated easily above anything in Tuesday’s contest.
Kerry Lee knows how to ready one for an Uttoxeter test
What’s more, this runner has joined a trainer that does rather well at Uttoxeter. In her entire training career, Lee has only saddled more winners at just one track besides Utotoxeter, where she has a hugely encouraging strike rate with male horses under certain conditions.
At the Staffordshire track, from her last 33 male runners aged nine or less, running over two miles and six furlongs or less, Lee has hit 11 winners, producing a further 21 places. It’s thus fair to say that her horses of this nature very rarely fail to run well. This stat alone makes 10/1 look on the chunky side, let’s be honest.
At the end of the day, based on some of his hurdle form in Ireland, the five-year-old, who surely has the potential to be a decent handicapper now in Britain, simply has what I’d call a better chance than 10/1 would suggest. Factor in the rather encouraging trainer stats above and those odds really do look generous.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 72 Naps) has a running P/L of +£25.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
The price is a bit on the stingy side for a horse that has a few negatives against it…so either the bookies think it’s a dark horse (pun not intended) or they’re tricking us