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The short priced inclusion yesterday was something I will learn from having failed to place, the month concludes today and after a promising opening 8 weeks, an amalgamation of things have ensured October didn't live up to expectations but we can at least draw a line under it and move on into November with ideas of operating a tad more responsibly.
The highlighted Brocade Racing silks went in again but typically I had only seen Gentleman Toboot, who doubled in price but still claimed a place. Today's selections although rushed have a much better feel to them and we'll hope the month ends with a good showing.
Run Boy Run 8/1 four places – 18:15 Southwell
This is a very tricky race to have a stab at, there is a nice blend of in form horses, capable on their day horses and unexposed handicap debutants. Noodle Mission has had a really great season winning over C&D in the Racing League event, Saffie Osbourne was on that day and it is her I am going to follow.
The horse has had a very busy year, he began the year back in March with a win rated 82 on the AW over 6f at Newcastle, that was the last time he saw an artificial surface, having had 10 starts up until a month ago. He bagged two wins at Newmarket in August, both at a level similar to today, he sits 3lbs higher in the weights but that should be well within his capabilities.
His last two runs have been quite poor, I was almost tempted to go with the very well-weighted Chuzzelwit given the lack of wins Saffie has for the trainer but he is hugely respected and I am confident enough that we'll see a true reflection and off of that, hopefully feature.
No Saint 15/2 four places – 19.15 Southwell
Sam England as mentioned before has had a relatively decent season for such a small yard, a dual purpose operation who have been well worth a look on turf recently. I was all set to chance another having checked over Tom Eaves' record for the yard but he was on board this horse last December when putting in one of it's better efforts and off of that, I am willing to take a chance on this dreadfully inconsistent beast.
The 2nd was over C&D when rated 69 in a Class 5, this is a Class 6 and the horse is now rated a massive 17lbs lower, I discarded more than half the field so a place should be perfectly possible if not more. The horse had been on a long run of poor form since that 2nd but slowly started to show signs of life once returned to today's trip. A fourth at Wolverhampton was followed up by a 2nd at Newcastle off today's mark, Tom Eaves actually won that race which is a nice little coincidence.
The horse was sent out a week later when 8/8 but there are no doubt excuses for that race, I am more than happy to put this up and for once am actually starting to feel confident in a selection, despite the antics that are quite a regular occurrence at this level.
Grifter 6/1 four places – 15.15 Newcastle
I identified the Greenall/Guerriero yard recently when sending 8 to Bangor, that had quite the day and we were lucky enough to land on their only winner, that makes their massive favourite in this hard to ignore but with an extra place, I will not be putting up a 2/1 selection ever again off the back of what we saw today.
Another yard that has been handy for us is the one Jennie Candlish operates. There is little reason to risk this is a single but combined within the L15, I thought it looked one solid enough to grab a place and conclude the month hopefully with some profit.
The horse started life with Richard Fahey on the flat before being tried over hurdles for D Brooke, he has been at the new yard for over a year now, pulling up on his first start over hurdles before a very poor showing on the flat across five races. The price on his overall profile is terrible and given the size of the field, and the strong favourite, it isn't the best selection but regrettably my technological issues continue to plague me and the library shuts in 8 minutes.
I am throwing the horse in off the back of his last two starts, both Class 5 hurdle races, in which he has placed in both. The run at Bangor at the start of September saw him finish a very distant 3rd, it was his first start for a while over the obstacles and it can be forgiven, I thought it was pleasing enough and to see him back it up last time again was reassuring. Beaten by over 3 lengths, he still showed enough to warrant his inclusion, the winner was actually considered that day and overlooked – he's been out recently finishing a good 2nd of 15 runners. That entitles this horse with the same effort to claim a place and we'll take our chances despite the lack of value.
Seraphic 11/2 – 19.45 Southwell
Off the back of the success Come On John's connections had a Fakenham, my eye was drawn to this race when spotting a recent NR for us, Seraphic, I've been that disengaged I didn't see it was out just five days later when typically getting his head in front, I would typically be inclined to now avoid it having missed the boat but nudged up just 3lbs with Jack Mitchell back on board, I am willing to take a chance that he will be fully firing and capable of getting amongst it having won on the AW last time.
The horse is quite lightly raced and relatively unexposed over this trip, an unsuccessful stint over the jumps has seen him tried on the flat up to 2miles before finally winning his first flat race last time, the form is clearly nothing to hang your hat on at this level but I have put up enough in the past with far more to prove and I think he is a nice enough type to conclude the bet with.
*Advised Bet – Eachway L15*
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
