WELL it’s certainly been a nice two days. Well done to all of you who have been following me for a while and made a few quid over the last two days and a big hello to all of you who are reading this for the first time.
I will say this as I have said for years: only bet what you can afford to lose, stick to a sensible staking plan that will last you a decent period of time and don’t get carried away. If you do those three things we’ll have a good laugh and we’ll make a few quid at the bookies’ expense.
So…. let’s see if we can keep this run going. I have four selections two of which run at Carlisle and unusually for me I also have two over in Ireland at Listowel. I tend to shy away from the lower grade Irish stuff but this is good stuff today and there is an old favourite running in the Kerry National together with one from my notebook in the bumper at 6pm. There is also some cracking racing at Doncaster today and I think horses like Concello, Global Applause and Zeshov will run well but their races are competitive and their prices aren’t big enough to recommend bets.
At Carlisle we have slightly lower grade stuff but there are two that look like good betting propositions to me.
The first is REDARNA (4.15pm Carlisle) who I have been keeping an eye on for a while and to be honest he is a fairly average horse who isn’t likely to be heading to Royal Ascot anytime soon. However these conditions today (heavy ground, 6 furlongs) will suit him when they won’t suit others and the key for me is the addition of first time blinkers.
He only needs to improve a pound or two in the handicap to really be involved at the finish in my view and I think the blinkers could be just the ticket so he shouldn’t be a double figure price. The 5 places on offer with Betfred and Totesport are an absolute gift.
We dive very quickly across the Irish Sea to Listowel down in Kerry for the highlight of their racing season the Kerry National run over 3 miles. Regular followers will not be surprised at what I am going to say next – JURY DUTY (4.20pm, Listowel) is the absolute stand out bet here for me. I have backed him here, there and everywhere over the past 2 years or so and he rarely lets me down.
In 19 runs under rules he has only finished out of the places 4 times. When you look at just his chase runs he has been in the places every time (8 runs) apart from an unlucky unseat at Cheltenham. Yes he probably doesn’t win as often as I would like but he owes me absolutely nothing and will still be plugging away when others have cried enough today.
He jumps, he stays, he likes the ground and although he might come off the bridle earlier than one or two others he will keep fighting right to the end. The change to Robbie Power in the saddle today is an interesting one with Davy Russell but that might prove beneficial too, particularly if Puppy Power rides the horse a bit more prominently.
My third selection takes us back to Carlisle and our hero Danny Tudhope who rides AUXILIARY for Laurence Mulanney. I think the horse wants this trip and this ground and he should be a good bit shorter in the betting with question marks over the staying power of others in the race. A solid each way selection for me.
Fourth and final selection is DOCTOR DUFFY at Listowel in the bumper (6pm, Listowel). Now this really isn’t the sort of race I would get too involved with normally but this horse caught the eye on debut behind a lovely looking horse ridden by Jamie Codd.
The presence of two Willie Mullins debutants in this race gives us a lovely bit of value about Doctor Duffy today when he might otherwise have been odds on. He will benefit from the experience of that first run and should win this today if my positive view of that last race is correct.