The Voice of Value: Don’t be doubting Thomas in the Cleeve Hurdle

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A WONDERFUL day of racing awaits us at Cheltenham and I've reviewed each of the seven races on the card.  Hopefully we can grab a few winners.

12.40

I'll keep this short and sweet because it's not much of a betting prospect this race. Apple's Shakira is a heavy odds-on shot and should win wherever and whenever she likes.

1.15

Now this one, by contrast to the first race, promises to be a real humdinger of a handicap for some great quality novice chasers.  I have liked Ballyandy for some time but he didn't look quite as good last time so I'm going to pass him by.  The potential improver with the weight advantage is Mister Whittaker who won nicely last time but he still has to prove himself at this sort of level and he's a pretty short price. The most likely winner in my opinion is SIZING TENNESSEE who was tenacious in defeat to Yanworth last time in a strong Grade 2 race with Ballyandy in behind. It will be tricky today carrying top weight but he has a strong chance.  My second choice would probably be Full Irish who is inconsistent but has some nice bits of form and could still be an improving chaser.

1.50

This is another competitive handicap with several improvers in the field.  I'm not convinced that Coo Star Sivola is a good value favourite so that suggests there might be some value lurking elsewhere. Ballyhill had a nice win last time but has gone up in the weights as a result and the one I like at the current prices is KING'S ODYSSEY for Evan Williams.  I really like the form of his last run behind Guitar Pete and Clan Des Obeaux where Ballyalton and Romain De Senam finished 4th and 5th.  There is a real solidity to that form and he has actually gone down 1lb in the weights since the race.  I reckon he will be bang there today if he can produce something similar.  He also has the benefit of Barry Geraghty riding for the first time which certainly won't be a hinderance and could bring out an extra bit of improvement.

2.25 

I think it's fair to say that Bristol De Mai is a risky prospect away from Haydock and on anything other than heavy ground so I won't be getting involved with him at short prices.  Looking elsewhere I am intrigued by the form of American from last season who was unbeaten in three chase starts but was pulled up in the Ladbrokes Trophy (former Hennessy) on his return to action this year.  If he was a nice big price I might have a small each way bet but at 5/1 he is too risky.  The one that I think is overpriced is TEA FOR TWO who is quite inconsistent but is only 3lb behind Bristol De Mai on official ratings and a reproduction of his win at aintree last season or his 3rd place in the King George last time out would see him go very close today.  He looks the each way value pick for me.

3.00

This is another great looking race on paper.  Santini is an exciting prospect for Nicky Henderson and the fact that his stablemate Pacific De Baune is a shorter price in the betting speaks volumes about his prospects too.  TIKKANBAR looked very good to me last time and although there is the prospect for a superstar to emerge I like the proven form that he carries from that listed race win and he looks a safe enough each way shout in a cracking race.

3.35

A good field for the Cleeve Hurdle including the fascinating prospect of a return to hurdling for Finian's Oscar who has been a bit disappointing over fences so far.  To be honest I would be more concerned about his will to win after he looked like he downed tools last time when he got into a battle with Benatar.  It will be interesting to see if he is better back over hurdles but he won't be carrying my money. Wholestone is a solid enough prospective but his price is short today in a strong race and the one I will be having a punt on is my old pal THOMAS CAMPBELL.  He perhaps looked outclassed last time but actually I think that was just an off day and I think he could bounce back today at a nice price over a course and distance that he relishes.

4.10

Once again a great race in prospect and I like the top weight REMILUC who is a horse I have been following for a few years, without a huge amount of success it must be said.  He is often the bridesmaid and rarely the bride but I think he has one of these sort of handicaps in him and today could be the day.  Ground and distance are both suitable and even if he does find one of them too good he would still provide a reasonable each way return.

Recommended bets

• 1.15 – Sizing Tennessee – 3pt win at 3-1 with William Hill and Stan James
• 1.50 – Kings Odyssey – 2pt each way at 8-1 with William Hill and BetVictor
• 2.25 – Tea For Two – 2pt each way at 9-1 with Betfair and Ladbrokes
• 3.00 – Tikkanbar – 2pt each way at 7-1 with William Hill and BetVictor
• 3.35 – Thomas Campbell – 2pt each way at 9-1 with Paddy Power and BetVictor
• 4.10 – Remiluc – 1pt each way at 12-1 with Betfair and William Hill

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