I'M still recovering from last weekend at York where we gave the bookies an absolute pounding. Hopefully some of you got involved too.
I'm hoping to continue that form today with a few crackers at Goodwood and Galway as both of their festivals draw to a close.
The ground at Goodwood has been a bit of a problem this week with a downpour on Wednesday turning the ground soft officially, although the evidence suggests that it was more like heavy. It has definitely dried out a bit now though so the official description of ‘soft, good to soft' in places is probably accurate. The less extreme ground makes it a bit easier to rely on previous form but I am still looking for horses that can handle a bit of cut.
I have a soft spot for improving handicappers stepping into group races, especially in their 3 year old season, and in this race we have MOUNT MORIAH doing just that. He has improved leaps and bounds this season and needs to improve maybe another 1olbs or so in the ratings to win this but I think that is entirely plausible. He has won on soft ground so that isn't an issue and I think his price should be much closer to that of Crystal Ocean and Khalidi.
I think there is undoubtedly some value to be found here given the large number of runners and the fact that there are some with question marks over the softish ground. I don't often go for three horses in one race but we need to take advantage of the extra places on offer at times like this.
AL QAHWA is one who caught the eye at York last week – I actually had an each way punt on him in the ring when two of my other selections were ruled out as non-runners due to the ground. He ran on well into 2nd behind a good winner and will appreciate the soft ground today. He has my main man Danny Tudhope in the saddle and although David O'Meara can't buy a winner at the moment he is having loads of horses placed and I think it has just been bad luck rather than a general problem at the yard.
OUTBACK TRAVELLER is one who could outrun his big odds on the soft ground based on his form in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot in 2016. He has dropped down the weights ever so slightly and with some firms paying 6 places each way (7 places with SkyBet actually) there is no shame in throwing a few each way darts at the race.
With that in mind I simply must have an each way bet on SIR DANCEALOT. The remarkable Ryan Moore is in the saddle, the horse is due to go up 9lb after today and I think if he had form on soft ground (he hasn't raced on softer than good) he would be much much shorter than the 8/1 that is available this morning. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth here and get involved.
This is a competitive handicap, no doubt about it, but MR SHOWTIME is too big a price at 25/1. If he was trained by Mullins or Gordon Elliot he would be half that price. He is an improving horse, having won or been placed in all his races this season and although this is a big step up in class the conditions should suit and I can see him challenging.
- 3.00 Goodwood – Mount Moriah – 2pt win at 5/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power
- 3.35 Goodwood – Al Qahwa – 1pt each way at 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
- 3.35 Goodwood – Outback Traveller – 0.5pt each way at 28/1 with Ladbrokes (6 places)
- 3.35 Goodwood – Sir Dancealot – 2pt each way at 8/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
- 3.05 Galway – Mr Showtime – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Betfair and Paddy Power, both playing 5 places)
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