Like most weeks, the Lucky 15 became a three-runner bet as Damysus was a non-runner in France.
Tennessee Stud won in a good battle with his stablemate, but he was meant to win at odds of 6/4.
The other two runners were well below par, and I expected much more from Quinault, specifically.
Barnavara 9/1 – Longchamp 3.50
There is no doubt that Barnavara benefited from getting an easy lead at the Curragh last time out, but who is to say the same won't happen again?
I think they will be wiser this time around, but she looks like one of the only pace angles in the race, so I can see her being allowed to set her own fractions again. If that is the case, she is a massive player and is being massively overlooked in the market.
This is a Group 1, but not the strongest Group 1 you'll ever see. See The Fire will always be strong in the market, as she has strong form against the males, but she is definitely better on fast ground.
Topgear 10/1 – Longchamp 4.25
This is a fantastic race, arguably one of the races of the day. You could give a chance to nearly every runner, so you could easily find value at big prices who could easily hit the frame.
Topgear caught my attention after winning at Newmarket in easy style at the back end of last season. This year, he has won a Group 3 over today's course and distance, but hasn't been covered in glory since, but the ground hasn't come right for him.
He is best on slow ground, so I think you've got to ignore his last two runs on good to firm and good ground. He beat Sajir in May, and that horse has put in a big performance in August, so the form looks good.
Short Final 5/2 – Dusseldorf 2.50
I don't know a great deal about German racing, but I know that our horses are much better than theirs. Short Final went over to Baden-Baden a month ago and finished second to a smart German performer, Geography. That form alone should be enough for him to come back to the UK with a Group 3 win under his belt.
He has only run two times for Stuart Williams, but he was a decent performer for S Kobayashi, who trains in France. He is a Group 3 winner at Baden-Baden earlier in this year, and shows a liking to soft ground, which he should be getting on Sunday.
Copacabana Sands 5/2 – Tipperary 2.43
I've tipped up this filly on a couple of occasions, walking away with a win a couple of month ago. I tipped her up again last time out, and she didn't run the greatest, but I'm expecting a return to form with Jaime Powell back in the saddle.
It was strange to see Jamie booted off, as this filly performs very nicely with Jamie in the saddle. I think he is a big part of why she has gotten the wins on her CV this season. Things seem to click with Powell doing the steering, so dropping back in Grade and having a good partner on board was enough to give her another chance.
GambleAware