Like most of the Saturdays during the flat season, we have some good quality races with plenty of strong handicaps.
Saturday's Lucky 15 bet is advised as an each-way bet.
Royal Dress 4/1 (4pl) – Ascot 2.20
I don't think hanging your hat on Royal Dress to turn up in the same form as last time is the smartest idea, but if she does, I think she wins this.
On her day, Royal Dress is a very talented mare. The problem is that we don't see a vintage performance from her on every start. However, last time out at Pontefract in a Listed race, connections knew she was going to win. The money was strong for her in the betting, and she ran like James Tate's stable knew she was back to her best.
She didn't have to be at her best to win that Listed race last time out, as it wasn't a fantastic race. But, the way she won was very taking on the eye, and I think if she turns up with the same mojo, she will go close.
Bullet Point 4/1 (5pl) – Ascot 3.35
Similar to the main thread, another big field handicap, another favourite tipped up. I try to avoid this, but this race seems to suit the ‘classier' horses in the race.
This is only the fourth renewal of this race, but in the first two, horses carrying 10st have won it. Last year, Sean carried 10st 3lbs to the runner-up spot. This year, the older horses don't look too strong, and Bullet Point's form makes him the outstanding chance. If you like my selection, you will like Bopedro, but if Bullet Point can't improve from his last run and can't beat Bopedro at the age of nine, the game is gone.
The main opponents will be the younger horses, who are always appealing at the weights. I like the form like of Bullet Point behind My Cloud at Royal Ascot, and given that horse was definitely well ahead of the handicapper, it looks solid.
Soul Seeker 16/1 (5pl) – York 3.20
It probably seems mad to be having a bet in the Jumps Jockey's Nunthorpe, but Soul Seeker is a horse who has been running in this race for the last four years.
Soul Seeker has won this race twice and finished as the runner-up last year. Evidently, it's a race Philip Kirby likes to target his horse at. This year, his form has been woeful, but that doesn't put me off from backing him. At the age of eight, he will clearly be going backwards, but off a mark of 65, he has to be respected in this, given how well he has gone in the past.
Night On Earth 9/2 (3pl) – Chester 3.45
Night On Earth is a horse who has landed me a couple of winners on the website over the last couple of years. He is a very quick horse, but finds himself in and out of form every season. He is a seven-year-old, but still has the ability to win races, and I believe the drop into Class 5 company will help him return to the winner's enclosure.
He is drawn in stall 4, which is a good enough stall for him to get to the front and dictate around Chester, which is what he does best.
GambleAware