I have to admit that the grey skies and persistent rain only adds to the feeling that the flat racing is gone and we have to focus on the National Hunt. At the time of writing we are still scheduled to have two good flat cards at Newbury and Doncaster but the biblical rainfall across the country is putting both cards in doubt. Thankfully Cheltenham is in good shape so we are guaranteed some good racing on ITV4 regardless. I'm working on the assumption that the flat racing will go ahead so I have tips across 8 of the 9 live ITV4 races for Saturday.
You can get all of my thoughts on this week's Gambla racing podcast here:
The tips are as follows:
ABERAMA GOLD is the sold option at a decent price against the favourite Troubador and Flaming Princess who looks good but might not like the soft/heavy ground.
I can't get away from ROCKY'S TREASURE at a double figure price who is a lightly raced 8 year old that goes well fresh and will enjoy today's conditions. This is a race where many of them are well known to us so a potential improver like this is intriguing.
Soft ground is what we want for MORANDO and he looks great value for us again at the current prices. Young Rascal should enjoy it too but I don't think he is quite as good as Morando.
NELSON RIVER had a good season and comes here after a pipe-opener on the flat in September. He was unfancied at the festival in March but ran well there finishing ahead of Quel Destin and can do so again this time at a nice price.
The clear value bet here for me is YEAR OF THE TIGER who ran really well against Pinatubo last time out despite sweating up and hanging a bit under pressure. He can improve again in a weaker race here. Soft ground shouldn't be an issue either.
I was amazed at the price for SAINT CALVADOS in this. He has contracted a bit since this morning but is still the value bet. He is a class act who will enjoy the conditions and his dislike for Cheltenham is exaggerated in my opinion.
There's a chance that VANITEUX will outrun his 25-1 odds off this mark. He was about 2 stones higher in the ratings a couple of years back and has shown signs of a revival so is worth a small each way.
I'm hoping that SUNSET SHOWDOWN proves to be the bet of the week. An improving jumper in good form who will enjoy the conditions here. Also has a great name for a racehorse so what's not to like?
I'm so keen for Doncaster to go ahead because I want to get bets on FOUR WHEEL DRIVE and FAIRY STORIES in this race. They are both improving 3 year olds who will handle the ground and should be much shorter in the betting. Lets hope that racing goes ahead and we can finish the day in style.
11:50 Galway - Race: 1
12:00 Newmarket - Race: 1
12:20 Goodwood - Race: 1