Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips: Ascot specialist Rohaan looks the dark horse in the Jubilee

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Ocean Quest started the day off well with a place in the sprint race, placing at 25/1 drifted odds. However, it all went downhill from that point. A dud run from the Godolphin horse, with Appleby’s yard form being very bad so far this week.

I’m out tonight, so only a few selections will be up for Day. There might be some more in the morning if I fancy anything in the remaining races that I’ve not managed to look into.

Ascot 2:30 – Count Palatine 33/1 (0.5pt EW bet365 4pl)

I've not been getting involved too much in the 2yo races this year at Royal Ascot as they are a total minefield, but if there is one I like in the race and is decent odds I will have a play and I think Count Palatine could be good value to those much shorter than him in the market.

I'm a fan of Brian Meehan, he generally has one or a couple of decent 2yo's every year, and his horses are always worth watching on debut as they will come on plenty for the runs after. I thought Count Palatine put in a steady debut at Windsor to suggest there's more to come over further, as his pedigree on the Dam's side would suggest. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the runner-up finishing 3rd behind Big Evs in the Windsor Castle earlier this week, the third won on his next start by 2L and the fourth won easily in France.

Count Palatine was drawn in one at Windsor, but didn't get pushed to the lead, so had to settle towards the rear. He did his best work entering the final furlong under an educated ride by Sean Levey, and he looked like he needed further. The Dam stayed 12f but has produced some black type milers and some decent middle-distance horses, so stamina is in the pedigree, which is never an issue with the juvenile races at Ascot as they often go a good gallop, normally faster than ideal/needed and the ones who stay on best are the ones who profit. 33/1 seems fair and I think he is a good price against the horses from popular stables, but it could all go out the window if Sean gravitates to the wrong side of the track.

Ascot 3:05 – Flight Plan 22/1 (0.5pt EW bet365 4pl)

I don't think there will be any superstars coming out of this race, and I think it's best to avoid those towards the head of the market, they seem a bit too short for my liking. The Antarctic was a winning selection for me a couple of weeks ago, he is the full brother to Battash, which would put you off for this 7f race before even analysing his run style. He is a good horse, but a stiff 7f doesn't look suited for him in my opinion, the closers were getting to him over 6f last time out, so I think he'd struggle over this trip.

I do like Flight Plan as an EW bet in this race. He is around the 20/1 mark, which normally suggests he has a very slim chance of causing the upset, but as we've seen throughout the week, there is value to be had in these types of races. You've got to ignore his run in the Guineas last time out 49 days ago, the ground was soft, which might not be ideal and I don't think he's an out-and-out miler, plus the track is very niche and isn't for all. I thought his run at Newcastle the time before that was a great effort, he cruised into the lead that day but was outstayed by the winner, but if you drop that back to 7f, he'd have won that with a bit in hand I think. That was his first run of the season, so he was entitled to be have needed the race, but we didn't see if it did help him as he fluffed the Guineas.

The form of the Newcastle race looks decent, with horses in behind franking the form. Galeron has run two nice races in the UK and Irish Guineas. Oviedo won a nice pot at Ripon before running a nice race at Royal Ascot this week and Dark Thirty has run well in a couple of races, including winning a decent Class 3.

The owner of Flight Plan won this race back in 2019 with a 25/1 outside, Space Traveller who improved to win this race from being rated 102 like Flight Plan.

Ascot 3:40 – Rohaan 10/1 (1pt EW bet365 5pl)

This is arguably the race of the week with horses coming from all over the globe to go for Royal Ascot success.

Rohaan is too short in the market from what I was expecting, but he was the one I landed on so I won't be changing my mind. This horse is built for Ascot, he might not be the best horse in the world, but he runs this track better than any other track in the world and he has been aimed at this race for some time now. He's only had one race so far this season, and he was terrible at Salisbury, being slow out of the gates and never put into it by Tom Queally, but I think David Evans has really targetted this race as his goal for this season, he's clearly sacked off early season races he could've gone and plundered for some cash, but he's going to have Rohaan 100% for this race, and when he's done it in the past with this horse, he's come up with the good with two monstrous performance off big weights in the Wokingham.

I can see why punters and the bookies are getting stuck into the foreign horses, as they are always nice on paper, and we don't really rate our sprinters that highly, but I'd say the favourite, Artorius is Rohaan with a wig on. He has the same run style, will be played very late and will want a strong pace to aim at, but he is much shorter in the market. Granted, he is a Group 1 winner in Australia, but let's be honest, should he be the favourite? I'm not so sure, he got smoked by Highfield Princess last year. Wellington is the strange one, he could be head and shoulders above this field, but this is his first run out of Hong Kong, which stinks to me. Surely, if he was that good he'd have headed over to Meydan or even Australia, 9/2 is a decent price if he hacks up but there are too many questions to be answered.

Out of the foreign horses, I thought Big Invasion was the one to keep an eye out for at 16/1. He finished 2nd to the Breeders' Cup winner just 14 days ago, and he was staying on strongly, so Ascot should suit. The problem for me was that his last race was 14 days ago and he's had to travel over from America, that doesn't seem ideal, and though I'm not tipping him up, I'll probably chuck a few quid on him.

Ascot 5:00 – Kape Moss (0.5pt EW 28/1 Bet365 6pl) & Spangled Mac (0.5pt EW 22/1 Bet365 6pl)

I'm going to go for two in this race, to hopefully cover both sides of the track, but also because I'm torn between the two.

Kape Moss is drawn low and has shown a good level of form in sprints this year for David Loughnane, and has his son, Billy in the saddle. You see a few horses who break into Class 1 company when starting off the year as a low handicapper and Kape Moss is one of them, even though she hasn't won a race yet at Class 1 level, she has proven to be up to it by finishing 4th/10 at Newmarket behind Azure Blue and 2nd/9 behind Get Ahead. Both of the winners from their races have gone on to frank the form. Azure Blue is now a Group 2 winner and Get Ahead ran a blinder in France to finish 2nd by a short head in a Group 2. I'd say the horses in the races on those two days make the form weighted quite well. You have Aramis Grey behind Get Ahead at Haydock, and she was behind Queen Aminatu, beat Vadream and was behind Annaf who has since run well in the Kings' Stand earlier this week. In the Azure Blue race you've got Perdika who has since won a Class 1 race in France and Heredia who was second on her next start at Listed level. Billy Loughane takes off 3lbs which is a big bonus for a jockey who is well ahead of his years and has proven he is capable of riding at this meeting by going close on a couple of occasions this week, before riding a hattrick at Newcastle in between his Royal Ascot appearances.

Spangled Mac is my other fancy who is drawn on the other side of the track. George Boughey was very bullish about his chances in the Buckingham Palace Stakes on Thursday where he finished 4th. He mentioned in an interview that he believed this horse is well-handicapped and got a fair few pounds to spare and that his runs at Meydan didn't prove that, so for him to run such a big race on Thursday cemented that to me. He was progressing nicely last year between 6f and 7f, winning four on the bounce before hitting a brick wall, but the run on Thursday showed that he is back to his normal ways again, and I think him dropping back to 6f can only be seen as a positive as the extra stamina he possesses will help him in the final furlong or two, he'll more than likely be off the bridle before the speedier types, but we've seen on many occasions that being held-up or running on strongly are the ones who comes to snatch the win.

Ascot 5:35 – Cuban Dawn 14/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365 5pl)

This is still a new race to Royal Ascot and has only had three runnings but each of the winners came from horses who were making their handicap debut on their fourth run, it might be a coincidence but sometimes it's worth sticking to the trends and I think Cuban Dawn is an interesting runner for the Jim Bolger stable on his handicap debut.

This Teofilo colt was bought for 200,000 Euros as a yearling and was then bought for £300,000 at the sales earlier this week, so some decent money has been passed around for this horse. He was pitched into the deep end on debut when finishing a decent 4th/6 at Listed level behind Paddington, you could tell from that run he would be a decent horse, but the other two runs after in Maiden company have given me the impression that he needs a longer trip as he seems to get rolling and doing his best bits late on in his races. The form of his maiden runs looks decent with the third (4 lengths behind and carrying 5lb less on the day) went on to run to a rating of 94 on her next start.

He is bred to be suited by this new trip, being by Teofilo who was a high class over 7f but has produced many middle-distance horses, combining it with the Dam's side who was unraced but is related to 10f horses. Hollie Doyle is a positive booking, she is riding out of her skin this week and has already had a couple of winners. I don't think this race is particularly strong, and I think it might be worth siding with the very unexposed ones.

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