This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Three losers on Saturday which was a shame, especially with the way French Paradoxe travelled into the race but it looked like hit fitness wasn't quite 100% for his seasonal reappearance. The other two were duds, Zenon tried to make the running in the Cesarewitch, drifted massively before the off and got tired late into the race. Knight was shocking.
Ffos 3:20 – Strong Leader 2/1 (2pt Bet365)
Going for the top weight when the ground is slow and very testing wouldn't be my ideal scenario, but I think Strong Leader is good enough to defy top weight and win the Welsh Champion Hurdle.
There's no doubt that he is the best horse in the race and he warrants to carry the most weight as he was the best British novice hurdler of last season as though he was 9th in the Supreme, he was the closest to the winner from any stable based in Britain. He backed that decent run up at Aintree just a few weeks after when flying home from out of the picture to finish 2nd in a Grade 1 behind Inthepocket, who in turn was 4th in the Supreme. Though Strong Leader isn't fully convincing that he likes the soft ground, with his wins coming on good and running well on good to soft, I think he will be fine. His pedigree would suggest he'll handle the conditions well, but also, his running style would suggest he'll need further in time so the added stamina that he possesses will be a big weapon over 2m on stamina testing ground.
I'm not underestimating the horses below Strong Leader in the handicap in this race, I think this will be a tough race for my selection, especially on seasonal reappearance but the level of form shown by the others show they have something to find with Strong Leader. Faivoir won the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, but the handicapper has whacked him with a decent rise in the weights. I can see why Nemean Lion will be fancied as he likes the soft ground and seems a decent stayer at the trip, but on collateral form with him finishing behind Tahmuras (was 8L behind Strong Leader in the Supreme) I think SL will come out on top.
Ffos Las - 3:20 pm