Racing tips: Waleyfa looks more than capable of winning with a 5lb penalty

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Thursday ended up being a small loss on the day with one winner and the other three not managing to get any further wins. Letmelivemylife managed to land the hat trick in good style.

In The Giving was too headstrong for Billy Loughnane at Southwell and pulled her chances away as her winning efforts faded in the final furlong or so. From This Moment was subject to a gamble, being backed into 5/2F or something similar from 6/1 and never went a yard and Marajman clattered one of the starting hurdles and clearly wasn't up for the race yesterday.

Newcastle 1:50 – Shouldvebeenaring 11/4 (1pt)

This is a trappy little Conditions Stakes (Class 2), but I think Shouldvebeenaring is starting to get too big in odds and looks like he'll drift even more.

I can see why some of the other horses in the race are being backed, especially Shaquille, as he arrives on the back of two wins late last year and has an attractive profile, but sometimes you shouldn't ignore the class horse in the race, and that is Shouldvebeenaring.

Richard Hannon's Havana Grey colt was a smart juvenile, winning a big pot at York in August before winning a Listed race at Ripon. He then had to mix it at a decent level and didn't manage to win another race, but didn't run particularly badly in any of them. He is a horse who does his best work late on in his races, which is why they tried him over 7f last time at Lingfield, but that race wasn't run to suit, he was quite keen and had to settle for a position towards the rear and only got going in the final furlong or so to finish 1.25L behind the winner. I think the drop back to 6f in today's race will suit, as there seems to be a lot of pace on offer and I'm hoping they go a good gallop so Shouldvebeenaring can hit top gear and wear them down in the final furlong.

Newcastle 2:25 – Barenboim 13/2 (0.5pt ew)

There are stronger stayers in this race than Barenboim but I don't think this horse has stopped progressing over the staying trips and he is worth another crack at 2m.

David O'Meara has worked wonders with this horse, transforming him from a very average low-tier handicapper to challenging for a big pot on All-Weather finals day. He tried 2m the time before last and he went from looking like a horse who was going to win by any amount he wanted to then not finding as much as you'd have thought and had to settle for second spot. At a first glance, you'd say he didn't stay, and though that might be true, I'm not totally sure that is the case. Daniel Muscutt might've gone too soon for him that day and used up a bit too much petrol when turning for home, and I think that this horse is a thinker and doesn't do too much when he hits the front, so he probably should've held on to him for a bit longer. He has gone through the ratings at a slow methodical pace due to him not winning by great margins, and I think that shows he doesn't do much when he hits the front, so hopefully, with Jason Watson back in the saddle (ridden him six times) he will produce him late, let him travel into the race, which he should do and then go for him as late as possible.

Earlofthecotswolds won this race last year, so has an obvious chance of winning it again, but he is a horse who likes to front run, but not to set a strong pace. I'm hoping the other jockeys let him crack on and set a slow pace, as that will suit my selection even more, as he's done it a lot in his races where he sets slow fractions and makes it a muddling race.

Newcastle 3:35 – The Wizard Of Eye 7/1 (1pt)

For the life of me, I don't understand why The Wizard Of Eye is the price he is, I think he has a cracking chance in this race.

If he was trained by Andrew Balding or Joseph O'Brien, who both have runners in this race, I'd be fairly certain that he would be the favourite for this, but because he is trained by Stan Moore he is 7/1. I've always liked this horse since he was a juvenile, he had previously run well in tough races at big odds, and I think it's taken him a fair bit of time for him to mature, but based on his recent start at the back end of last year, he looks like his frame has developed into a fully grown horse, and he won well at Kempton. He probably did get the run of the race as he was the front runner in a four-runner field, but the most impressive part of the race was in the final furlong where he showed a wicked turn of foot and stayed on nicely.

The favourite in this is Berkshire Shadow, which I can understand as he won nicely last time out at Lingfield, but the difference in odds between my selection and the favourite is crazy based on when they met at Goodwood last year over a mile when The Wizard Of Eye turned for home in last place, breezed past Berkshire Shadow and finished second, whereas the Balding horse finished 6th.

It's a shame there are not enough runners to make him an EW bet, but I think he has a great chance and this has clearly been the plan for some time considering he's not had a run, and they've tried to keep him as fresh as possible.

Bath 5:10 – Waleyfa 11/4 (1pt)

Bath is putting up some amazing prize money on offer for today's racing, especially for the lower-tier horses who have to settle for some crap money when they win, so the £13k which is on offer for these Class 6 races is great to see.

Obviously, with this amount of prize money on offer, every man (or woman) and their dog will want to have a crack and win it, so it's going to be competitive, however, I think Alice Haynes holds the cards for this race. Waleyfa was very impressive on stable debut on the AW last week and based on that performance, he is going to be a tough nut to crack in this off a 5lb higher mark from the penalty he carries.

He took a keen hold in that race, and was positioned towards the back but when the jockey asked him to stretch his legs down the outside of the straight he picked up lovely and won with plenty of authority and won as if he would be ahead of the handicapper for a couple more wins. Today's race is different, with it being back on turf on soft ground, but he did have some good turf runs at the start of his career and his pedigree would suggest he will handle the ground. He is drawn in stall 13 which is a concern on a track like Bath, but knowing how well he did from off the pace last time, I'm confident he will be okay from the wide draw.

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